The AL East is once again the best division in baseball, with four teams likely in contention for the MLB Postseason.
The Major League Baseball regular season starts on Thursday, and the AL East is sure to be a close race once again. The same four teams who went down to the last weekend of the 2021 season are set to run it back. While only three could make the playoffs last year, the new twelve-team postseason means there is a good chance all four contenders will be playing in October. Let’s go over the major moves each team made during the offseason, and make some bold predictions for each team and their place in the standings.
Projected First Place: Toronto Blue Jays
The Blue Jays had one of the better offseasons of any team, and they are showing up with a new-look roster. After missing out on the wild card by one game last year, GM Ross Atkins made a concerted effort to upgrade any weak links on the roster. While Cy Young winner SP Robbie Ray signed with the Seattle Mariners, the Jays found a comparable ace in SP Kevin Gausman. They also picked up SP Yusei Kikuchi after he opted out of his contract with the Mariners. The exclamation mark came when Atkins traded for star 3B Matt Chapman in the midst of the Oakland A’s tearing down, and he gave relatively up little in return.
All together, these were tremendous moves to improve an already good team, which is a difficult feat to accomplish. Even if Chapman does not regain his hitting abilities, his outstanding defense is more important for a Toronto team with plenty of power, and he pushes INF Santiago Espinal to a more fitting utility role. After turning around Ray’s career, the Jays are the right team to unlock the best version of Kikuchi. Along with ace SP Jose Berrios and the talented SP Alek Manoah, the Blue Jays have a very fearsome rotation.
There is a good chance the Blue Jays outslug the rest of the league on the way to a division title. Superstars 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr., CF George Springer, LF Teoscar Hernandez, and SS Bo Bichette are all back. With the bonus of unvaccinated opponents banned from playing in Canada, the Blue Jays are a trendy pick to reach the World Series.
Second Place: Tampa Bay Rays
The savvy Rays have fooled me enough times for me to sleep on their chances again in the AL East. After trading SP Blake Snell last offseason, I expected them to slip under 90 wins and miss the playoffs. Instead, they had the best record in the American League. The always-busy front office had a surprisingly quiet offseason, so we should see a similar team on the field in 2022. The only reason I think they drop out of first is due to Toronto’s improvements.
After signing an 11-year extension this winter, SS Wander Franco will be in Tampa for good. Already on a Hall of Fame track, he is the clear favorite to win Rookie of the Year. Franco is surrounding by a young group of solid position players. Rookie OF Josh Lowe is expected to claim an impact role beside OF’s Austin Meadows and Randy Arozarena. 2B Brandon Lowe will still lead this team from the keystone.
The only notable acquisition comes in the rotation, as the Rays signed SP Corey Kluber. He will be joined by the reliable SP Shane McClanahan and a pile of swingmen and relievers. Whether you have heard of them or not, they will collectively pitch well.
Third Place: Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox lost a fair amount of production but signed one of the prize free agents, so they are in a similar spot as last fall. That is good news for Red Sox Nation, as a fun and scrappy group made an impressive run to the ALCS. With the beloved SS Xander Bogaerts and 3B Rafael Devers locked in on the left side, GM Chaim Bloom taught a masterclass in negotiation. He convinced SS Trevor Story that moving to second base was in the best interest for him and the team. Oh, and $140 million helps.
More puzzling was trading away the amazing arm and power bat of RF Hunter Renfroe to the Milwaukee Brewers. The Sox are hoping a reunion with RF Jackie Bradley Jr. will lead to a rebound, but a 34 OPS+ is hard to come back from. At the very least, he brings better range and two interesting prospects with him. The rest of the outfield will also look familiar, as the flashy OF’s Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez will cover the Fenway walls again. DH J.D. Martinez will anchor the lineup again, and 1B Bobby Dalbec can carry over his late-season hot streak before top prospect 1B Triston Casas comes up.
Boston made more moves to beef up a highly-variable pitching staff. This bunch was successful last year because they avoided injuries, but they cannot expect the good health to continue. SP’s Rich Hill and Michael Wacha will eat innings behind ace SP Nathan Eovaldi. Coaches are giving RP Garrett Whitlock the chance to start, so the front office brought in RP’s Matt Strahm and Jake Diekman. If this team gets through the AL East to October, who knows what will happen this time.
Fourth Place: New York Yankees
As I said at the top, coming in fourth in the AL East will likely be good enough for a playoff spot this year, even though the Yankees expect better. Opinions vary widely on whether the Yankees had a good offseason or not, and it is only because of their reputation. Fans were disappointed when they did not sign a top free agent shortstop, bemoaning that this isn’t “George’s team” anymore.
While GM Brian Cashman does not act like he runs the Evil Empire, he did moderately improve the roster. They cut ties with C Gary Sanchez and 3B Gio Urshela in order to bring back 3B Josh Donaldson, SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, and defensive C Ben Rortvedt from the Minnesota Twins. Last week they brought in C Jose Trevino from the Texas Rangers and made a rare trade with the New York Mets, swapping RP’s Joely Rodriguez and Miguel Castro.
The Yankees still have a powerful roster but might be in trouble when RF Aaron Judge and DH Giancarlo Stanton inevitably get hurt. The best versions of INF D.J. LeMahieu, OF Joey Gallo, and 2B Gleyber Torres are MVP candidates. but they are each coming off down seasons. Bringing back 1B Anthony Rizzo helps, but Cashman might regret midseason trading 1B Luke Voit to the San Diego Padres. The rotation behind SP Gerrit Cole should be more reliable this year, and the bullpen is lockdown as always.
Fifth Place: Baltimore Orioles
The Orioles are looking at another season in the cellar of the AL East, but there will be noticeable improvement on the field. The first wave of prospects debuted last year, but the best wave will appear this season. That’s right, C Adley Rutschman and SP Grayson Rodriguez, two of the three best prospects in baseball, will play in Camden Yards this summer. Rutschman would have made the Opening Day roster, but he is dealing with an injury at the moment. It is certainly possible, though, that other prospects will break camp or debut before the summer solstice.
This was not an exciting offseason in Birdland, but GM Mike Elias did sign multiple free agents to major league deals. He brought in 2b Rougned Odor and SP Jordan Lyles, and C Robinson Chirinos will be a good mentor. On Sunday the front office avoided arbitration with 1B Trey Mancini, and they avoided a PR nightmare in the process. More consequential was trading RP’s Tanner Scott and Cole Sulser to the Miami Marlins. The player return is not enticing to fans, but the Competitive Balance draft pick will be a meaningful prospect.
The rotation, and now the bullpen, will still be hard to watch besides SP John Means, but coaches are stretching out RP Tyler Wells for a bulk role. The lineup has many names who can cement themselves in the lineup or improve their trade value. Breakout star CF Cedric Mullins would require a jaw-dropping return, but OF’s Anthony Santander is looking to return to his 2020 numbers. OF Austin Hays hit for more power last year, while INF’s Jorge Mateo and Ramon Urias showed enough in 2021 to be the incumbents up the middle. Off the field, the Orioles will indeed pick first in the draft this year.
