Arsenal’s title hopes are slipping away and it is not looking good for the Gunners with two matches left in the season. With Manchester City not dropping points, Arsenal failed to keep up and could potentially see their title hopes gone as soon as this weekend.
Arsenal opened the season with five straight wins, building a comfortable lead in first place. The Gunners won 14 Premier League matches from August to December, drawing and losing just once. This put them in sole possession of first place, with Manchester City struggling to keep up.
City was also on a good run but lost a game more and drew twice more to put them second. At one point in the season, Arsenal had a full eight-point lead. However, it all went wrong for them after that.
From January to May, Arsenal had won 11 league matches but drew three times with six losses. The month of April was Arsenal’s worst month which could potentially cost them the title. They had three straight draws and a loss to title rivals City, forcing them to lose their eight-point lead.
They also took a loss against City in February. Arsenal could end the year trophyless after their elimination from both the FA Cup and the Europa League. Despite securing Champions League football for the 2023-24 campaign, there won’t be much Arsenal could accomplish to represent the season they had.
On the other hand, City has been thriving and regained first place for the first time since August. They only lost two league matches from January-May, winning 11 straight since February. City has the potential to complete a quintuple before the end of the year, with an FA Cup final matchup against Manchester United and a Champions League semi-final clash with Real Madrid on Tuesday.
This past weekend was the turning point on the road to the league title. Manchester City had a trip with 17th-place Everton while Arsenal welcomed a visit from Brighton. The Gunners trailed Manchester City by a point and a win will keep them in contention. However, the worst-case scenario happened. City took an easy 3-0 victory while Arsenal stumbled and took a 3-0 loss, their largest defeat to a team outside the top five this season.
This puts Arsenal four points behind with two games left of the season. If Manchester City beat Chelsea and the Gunner drop points against Nottingham Forest, the title will stay in Manchester. The best-case scenario would be if City either lose or draw their next two games while Arsenal wins their next two to win the title.
Currently, this scenario only has about a 13% chance of happening.