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Eagles-49ers Preview

The Eagles (0-2-1) and 49ers (2-1) will square off on Sunday night football at Levi’s Stadium. The 49ers open as a 6.5 point favorite over the struggling Eagles. The 49ers are coming off two straight wins over each New York team at MetLife Stadium after dropping their opener to the Cardinals. The Eagles opened the season losing two straight to Washington and the LA Rams and are coming off a disappointing tie to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Eagles Offense Preview

The Eagles begin a rough stretch from this point on as they have the most difficult remaining schedule across the NFL. However, they’ll play depleted 49ers roster, which could afford them an opportunity to get in the win column for the first time this season. In the early slate of games, the Eagles have not looked like the team we saw capture the NFC East title at the end of the 2019 season by winning four straight games. 

QB Carson Wentz has gotten off to a tough start as he leads the league with the most interceptions (6). The Eagles have tried to recapture that 2017 Wentz form that was destined for MVP, but ever since he’s torn his ACL, he has not looked the same. We’ve seen spurts where Wentz looks like the guy but inconsistency and his supporting cast have held him back.

In Doug Pederson’s west coast scheme, anticipation and accuracy are at the forefront of traits that a quarterback has to possess. Per Pro Football Reference, Wentz has thrown a 20.8% Bad Throw percentage, the fourth highest mark in the NFL. In addition, he has only thrown 72% of his passes on target. The Eagles just lost top pass catchers TE Dallas Goedert and WR Desean Jackson this past week. Rookie first rounder WR Jalen Reagor is already out with a torn UCL in his thumb.

Wentz has struggled with a subpar supporting cast in the past and it’s looking awfully similar going into week four but now it is being compounded with his poor play. 

The Eagles are actually top ten in the league in intended air yards/pass attempt meaning they’ve been pretty aggressive through the air, but without some of their top weapons, the Eagles will need to rely on quick game concepts, screens, and a strong run game.

Eagles Defense Preview

Similar to the offense, the Eagles defense has not gotten off to the start they intended. Jim Schwartz’s “bend don’t break” philosophy has led to a ton of leakage in their pass defense. The Eagles have proven stout against the run by generating a ton of pressure in the interior from DTs Fletcher Cox and Malik Jackson. They’re currently fourth in the league in yards per carry allowed. However, the Eagles pass defense has yielded a 66.7% completion percentage. They’ve only managed to produce one takeaway and the secondary is still looking for their first interception of the year.

The spot this defense has struggled in the most is covering opposing team’s tight ends and slots. In recent weeks, we’ve seen players such as Logan Thomas, Tyler Higbee, Cooper Kupp, and most recently Tyler Boyd absolutely burn the Eagles from the middle of the field.

The players that typically are assigned to cover these guys have been absolutely torn apart:

PlayerTargetsCompletionYardsTDs
Nate Gerry1010992
Jalen Mills77421
Nickell Robey-Coleman1091141

In the first three weeks, every team has made a point to attack the slot and the Eagles have been horrid. This will need to be corrected moving forward either with a more aggressive attack in terms of getting pressure or with different personnel.

49ers Offense Preview

Despite injuries to their first two running backs, starting quarterback, center, superstar tight end, and first receiver, the 49ers have been clicking the past two weeks scoring a combined 67 points in their last two games against the Jets and Giants. Wins against these two teams typically isn’t anything to get too excited about, but they’ve taken care of business despite a very banged up roster.

Backup QB Nick Mullens played remarkably well in his start against the Giants throwing for 343 yards and a touchdown. Perhaps most impressively, Mullens was 9/14 for 153 yards on throws beyond 10 yards. A major strength of head coach Kyle Shanahan’s system lies in wide receivers being schemed open and having a propensity to create after the catch. That said, if they can connect on their intermediate/deeper shots, this offense becomes much more lethal.

Rookie first-rounder WR Brandon Aiyuk had a strong performance in the “do-it-all” Deebo Samuel-esque role with 70 receiving yards and 31 rushing yards, including this 22 yard score

Usually proficient in the ground game, the 49ers have averaged a solid 4.5 yards per carry but really struggled without starter RB Raheem Mostert this past week as they only logged a pedestrian 2.7 YPC against a mediocre Giants front.

49ers Defense Preview

Through three weeks, the 49ers have given up the second least points per game (15.3) in the NFL. In the process, they’ve lost CBs Richard Sherman, Akhello Witherspoon, LB Dre Greenlaw, and DL Soloman Thomas, Dee Ford, and Nick Bosa. They’ve somehow been able to overcome these obstacles and still look like the dominant unit they were from 2019. Time will tell if this is because of the competition they’ve faced but defensive coordinator Robert Salah has done a nice job keeping this defense afloat.

LB Fred Warner is making a case as the league’s top LB. He’s proving that he’s the top cover linebacker having yielded a passer rating of 22.6 from opposing QBs with an interception. He has completely neutralized opposing team’s tight ends and running backs in the passing game while leading the team in tackles.

The weakest culprit in this unit has been their pass rush which generated only 5 sacks. However, they’ve produced pressure on 25% of dropbacks, so there could be an uptick in sacks if they continue to maintain this pressure.

Matchup

In order for the Eagles to stay in this game and win, they’ll need to establish the run with RB Miles Sanders and stick with him throughout the game. Head coach Doug Pederson has consistently lost the running back in spurts during their first two games, putting too much on Wentz’s plate. The Eagles have thrown on 65% of offensive snaps through three weeks, good for sixth highest in football. If the Eagles can control the line of scrimmage and establish a run game, expect Pederson to utilize the screen game and quick game concepts in order to help Wentz’s confidence. 

I expect Fred Warner to minimize TE Zach Ertz’s impact. Without WRs Desean Jackson and Jalen Reagor to take off the top of the defense, the 49ers will sit their defensive backs at 6-8 yards daring the Eagles to throw over the top. Rookie WR John Hightower logged the most snaps among Eagles WRs in week three and will need to step up in a big way. Expect WR Greg Ward to build off his strong performance from a week ago and be a key cog in the Eagles’ passing attack.

On the other side of the ball, if the 49ers get TE George Kittle back, the Eagles could be in for a really long day. Even though WR Deebo Samuel is eligible to return week four, reports indicate that he is eyeing a week five return. Receiver Brandon Aiyuk will have plenty of manufactured touches early on and will be a huge mismatch for the Eagles in the slot.

With the 49ers missing Mostert, the Eagles should be able to neutralize the typically-strong 49ers ground game. The Eagles really struggled with motion and misdirection in their week two outing versus Sean McVay’s Rams offense, so expect Shanahan to dial up plenty of counters and misdirection plays to keep the Eagles off balance.

Prediction

The Eagles will need to slow this game down immensely. That means dominating the line of scrimmage, controlling the ball, and controlling the time of possession battle. Nonetheless, they are dead last in the league in turnover differential (-7). Unless the Eagles can generate pressure consistently from their front four, they will be tasked with playing man coverage more than DC Jim Schwartz would like. They have no answers for George Kittle or Brandon Aiyuk in the passing game. Additionally, without the speed on the perimeter the Eagles are used to having in Jackson and Reagor, the 49ers can be much more aggressive in pressuring Wentz. There are just way too many holes to patch up in too little time for the Eagles to overcome San Fran.

49ers 34-16

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