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Head Coach vs. Play-Caller: Kevin Stefanski

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Throughout the 2022 season, there was a lot of debate on what was the biggest problem for Cleveland. The debate was around the defense and Joe Woods, the special teams, and the play calling with Kevin Stefanski. Cleveland ended up finishing last in the AFC North with a 7-10 record. On paper that seems like a failure of a season, which with the record and standing it is, but there were some highlights. With this being said, there is one surprising highlight that needs to be discussed.

Game Management/Head Coach:

There was an article published by Dawgs by Nature, that shocked the fan base. The article stated that Kevin Stefanski ranked among the top of coaches in the NFL for game management. There is a metric behind this, what seems, insane statement. They got it from a tweet from SumerSports.

How It Works:

The chart is called, “Win Probability Added Over Expected.” They take in to account for 4th Downs, 2-Point Conversations, 1st half timeouts, 2nd half timeouts, and delay of game. They then convert it into a percentage that helped the team out or the WPAOE. Stefanski’s percentages were as follows: 31.5% in 4th down WPAOE, 0.5% in 2-Point WPAOE, -6.7% in 1st half timeouts, -7.1% in second half timeouts, and 0,8% in delay of game WPAOE. Stefanski was ranked 9th overall with a total of 18.7%. He ranked ahead of Andy Reid, and Kyle Shanahan.

Analysis of Game Management/Head Coach:

A lot of those numbers make sense right off the bat. Cleveland has been known for going for it on 4th down a lot since Stefanski took the job in 2020. Throughout the 2022 season, Cleveland converted 23 times, which was league high, on 42 attempts. This puts their conversion percentage at 54.8, which was 8th in the league. Overall, the 4th downs attempts were. good for Cleveland. 2-Point conversions were a different conversation as Cleveland only converted on 33% of their attempts. This tied them for 18th in the league with Miami and Tampa Bay. Cleveland only had 4 Delay of Game penalties called against them this year which was tied for 4th. The worst team was Minnesota with 10, while Buffalo only had one called against them all year.

Reliability:

I mentioned earlier that Stefanski ranked ahead of Andy Reid an Kyle Shanahan, but both of there teams made it to the conference championship game, and Reid’s Chiefs won the Super Bowl. Nick Sirianni ranked 1st in this metric, and his team lost in the Super Bowl. The top ten was split in half with teams that made it to the playoffs and teams who didn’t. So what gives, and is this a reliable metric to measure a coach? I think this a good metric to measure a coach but not the only way. There are other factors that need to be considered, such as talent of the team, motivation, and other responsibilities. Just like analytics, it does not tell the entire story. I do think Stefanski does a good job managing the game to help the team to win, but there is something that is holding him, and the Browns back from the next step,

Play Calling:

I will preface this by saying that this part of the article is very opinionated, and based on what I watched. Stefanski has been a good Head Coach in terms of managing the game, but his play calling has seemed to get worse over time. Just watching the games, it seems like Stefanski outsmarts himself. I like to use the term KISS (keep it simple stupid), and I believe Stefanski needs to keep it simple. This year Nick Chubb had six games where he had over 20 carries. Cleveland went 5-1 in those games. Remember they finished with a 7-10 record. Is there a correlation of giving Nick Chubb the ball and winning? There could be but there is more to the game than just giving Chubb the ball 20+ times a game.

Towards the end of the season, teams were keying on Nick Chubb so Cleveland had to rely on their other weapons. In the final six games, Cleveland went 3-3, and they went 2-1 with Chubb having 20+ carries.

The problem was on third down for Cleveland going 38% which was 21st in the league. I could not find the stats for third and short, but Cleveland seemed to try and stretch the field on third and short instead of focusing on getting the first down. That is where people are saying Stefanski needs to give the ball to Chubb more. I honestly don’t care how you get the first down, just convert. Overall, the play calling side of Stefanski needs work, and is far behind his game management side of the game.

Conclusion:

I think Stefanski is a good game manager and should give up the play calling. If anything, allow other coach’s to influence your play calling a little bit. Keep It Simple.

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