This time of year can bring unexpected surprises – from tricks and treats, to weather that wasn’t forecast or bargained for, to … well, an October surprise when it comes to the election cycle.
A couple of unexpected bursts have come from the Northwest with the Portland Trailblazers as the league’s only undefeated team, going 4-0 through their first week, and the Utah Jazz making sweet music with the unlikeliest of ensembles and a new, young head coach.
It’s also resulted in disappointment as the Los Angeles Lakers, Miami Heat, and Philadelphia 76ers have stumbled out of the gate, tripping over themselves, underestimating their opponents, or simply not deciding on their identity.
Let’s take a look at my predictions after a week of NBA basketball:
| ATLANTIC | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Celtics
(56-26) |
Celtics
(3-1) |
Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have come off the blocks as we expected they would. Tatum is tied for sixth in scoring at 32.5 ppg and Brown is tied with two other players at 20th with 24 ppg. |
| Nets
(54-28) |
Knicks
(2-1) |
The Knicks have taken down the Detroit Pistons and Orlando Magic, but those teams combined are a mere 1-6, so those wins are almost hollow. Julius Randle is averaging a team high 21.3 ppg, newcomer Jalen Brunson is at 17.7, and RJ Barrett is netting 16.3 per outing. |
| 76ers
(54-28) |
Raptors
(2-2) |
Taking down the Cleveland Cavaliers on Opening Night and splitting a back-to-back away set with the Miami Heat shows that the Raptors aren’t ready to be broken up just yet. Pascal Siakam is leading the team with 26.5 ppg and Fred VanVleet is adding 16 ppg and 8.3 assists. Keep your eye on Gary Trent, Jr. |
| Raptors
(44-38) |
Nets
(1-2) |
Losing to strong contenders like the Memphis Grizzlies and New Orleans Pelicans make the lone win against Toronto somewhat meaningless. Kyrie Irving is playing very well at 27.3 points and 5.7 assists, and why shouldn’t he? He had most of last season off. |
| Knicks
(42-40) |
76ers
(1-3) |
One of the most disappointing 0-3 starts this season, it’s hard to tell if this is Joel Embiid’s team or James Harden’s team. Harden and Embiid are neck-and-neck in stats, with Embiid leading in rebounds, and Harden in points and dimes; but that’s only because he’s not 7’ and 280 pounds. Starting to wonder if this is even Doc Rivers’ team anymore. |
| SOUTHEAST | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Heat
(56-26) |
Hornets
(2-1) |
The Hornets’ two wins came against the San Antonio Spurs and Atlanta Hawks, where Terry Rozier popped for 24 on Opening Night and Kelly Oubre, Jr. matched Rozier’s 24 in the team’s second win. LaMelo Ball has been out with an ankle injury. |
| Hawks
(51-31) |
Wizards
(2-1) |
I said I wasn’t ready to throw in the towel on Wes Unseld, Jr. and he proved me right by winning the Wizards’ first two games. Of course, the Unseld-Bickerstaff-Washington Bullets connection would eventually be tested when the Wizards went to Cleveland, where they suffered their first loss to Bernie Bickerstaff’s son, JB. More to come … |
| Wizards
(47-35) |
Hawks
(2-1) |
The Trae Young-Dejounte Murray connection hasn’t truly been tested yet, as the Hawks’ wins came against the Houston Rockets and Orlando Magic, a combined 1-7. Young is averaging 25.3 ppg (17th in the NBA) while Murray is stroking at 19.7 ppg. |
| Hornets
(46-36) |
Heat
(1-3) |
Miami’s start has been tepid to say the least – not much Heat. Losses against the Boston Celtics, Chicago Bulls, and Toronto Raptors were on the short end of the measuring stick, while a win against the Raptors saved them from being lumped in with L.A., OKC, and Orlando. |
| Magic
(38-44) |
Magic
(0-4) |
They may have Paolo Banchero (22.8 ppg) and Jalen Suggs, but Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter, Jr. are doing the dirty work so far. Having the Cleveland Cavaliers coming to town Wednesday night doesn’t help. |
| CENTRAL | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Cavaliers
(55-27) |
Bucks
(2-0) |
Who knew that the 0-5 preseason meant absolutely nothing? Taking out a couple of Daryl Morey’s legacies in Houston and Philadelphia is a good start, especially considering Khris Middleton isn’t back yet. |
| Bucks
(54-28) |
Cavaliers
(2-1) |
I’m still in a little shock from the Opening Night loss at Toronto, but Donovan Mitchell seems to be fitting in nicely at 33.3 ppg, while the move I forecasted in Darius Garland’s rookie year proved to be best – let Garland run the team and move Collin Sexton. |
| Pistons
(43-39) |
Bulls
(2-2) |
You expect better from a team that has DeMar DeRozan, Zach LaVine, and Nikola Vucevic. The 19-point comeback against the Boston Celtics was the Bulls team we expect of this collection of talent. They could break out of the dumpster fire reputation if they played like that every game. |
| Bulls
(42-40) |
Pistons
(1-2) |
Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, and Jalen Duren have shown why they were drafted, but Bojan Bogdanovic showed why the Pistons traded for him; he is the team’s leader in scoring through their first three games and helped them win their only victory on Opening Night. |
| Pacers
(30-52) |
Pacers
(1-3) |
The Pacers’ lone win came against the aforementioned Detroit Pistons, two days before they gave the Philadelphia 76ers their first win. Tyrese Haliburton is leading the team with 24 points (tied for 20th in the NBA) and 9.8 assists (third behind Trae Young and Chris Paul) as trade rumors still swirl around Myles Turner and Buddy Hield (allegedly to the Lakers). |
| NORTHWEST | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Timberwolves
(56-26) |
Trailblazers
(4-0) |
No one, not even Portland, predicted this. Crowning the Sacramento Kings, eclipsing the Phoenix Suns, straight up embarrassing the Los Angeles Lakers, and then pounding the Denver Nuggets into a pile of fool’s gold dust. Just, wow! Damian Lillard has returned to tie for third in the scoring race with Stephen Curry and Donovan Mitchell, while Lillard’s absence last season led to the maturation of Anfernee Simons who is looking sharp at 19.8 per. |
| Nuggets
(55-27) |
Jazz
(3-1) |
No one could have saw this coming from the depleted roster of the Utah Jazz. But quality wins over contending teams like the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves (versus for Jazz center Rudy Gobert), and the New Orleans Pelicans have people in Salt Lake City tuned up for what may be the surprise of 2022-23. Lauri Markkanen and Jarred Vanderbilt have found new life alongside Jordan Clarkson and Mike Conley. |
| Trailblazers
(44-38) |
Nuggets
(2-2) |
Reigning MVP Nikola Jokic is already nearly averaging a triple double four games in (20.3 points – 10.3 rebounds – 9.5 assists), but his team is .500 as they try to assimilate Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter, Jr. into the lineup, all the while waiting on Jamal Murray’s return. |
| Jazz
(36-46) |
Timberwolves
(2-2) |
This is where the Utah Jazz were supposed to reside, without Rudy Gobert – not the Timberwolves with Gobert. The French defensive specialist is fitting in nicely with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards at 15.3 rebounds a game, leading the team and the NBA. The trio will be a force to be reckoned with once they gel. |
| Thunder
(36-46) |
Thunder
(0-3) |
All losses were expected. You just wonder about the patience and professionalism of guys like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Josh Giddey, and Luguentz Dort through general manager Sam Presti’s now (too) elongated process. |
| SOUTHWEST | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Grizzlies
(60-22) |
Grizzlies
(3-1) |
We need to preface Ja Morant’s name with “The NBA’s leading … “ As in scorer (at 35.3 ppg), MVP Candidate, and ESPN highlight reel. He also leads the league with 141 total points. Fantastic wins against the Brooklyn Nets, Houston Rockets, and New York Knicks help soothe the 40+ point beatdown from Luka Doncic and division rival Dallas Mavericks last Saturday. |
| Mavericks
(58-24) |
Spurs
(3-1) |
Allegedly the leading favorite in the Victor Wembanyana Sweepstakes/2023 NBA Draft, it seems head coach Gregg Popovich has too much pride or integrity to tank. He took 12 no names and beat up on the Indiana Pacers, and All Stars like James Harden, Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards, and Rudy Gobert. |
| Pelicans
(48-34) |
Pelicans
2-1) |
Zion Williamson is looking slimmer, trimmer, and more like a winner. Brandon Ingram has the flashes and form of a young Kevin Durant. And CJ McCollum is committed to making the Pelicans a force to be reckoned with, to swoop in and scoop some unexpected wins. The two against the Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets were a nice start, until their former namesake came home as the visitor and played sweet jazz at the Smoothie King Center. |
| Spurs
(40-42) |
Mavericks
(1-1) |
Two games. A loss to the Phoenix Suns and a convincing win over the Memphis Grizzlies. That’s just .500 and really doesn’t tell a lot. Luka Doncic is averaging 28.4 points, 9.1 rebounds, and 8.7 assists. Who else is going to step up? |
| Rockets
(39-43) |
Rockets
(1-3) |
Still going with Jalen Green as my Most Improved in 2022-23. The kid is a cheat code. 24 points a game to lead the Rockets, tied for 20th in the league. Still also going with Stephen Silas as the first coaching casualty. |
| PACIFIC | AFTER WEEK ONE | |
| Warriors
(64-18) |
Suns
(2-1) |
Wins against the Dallas Mavericks and the Los Angeles Clippers, and an oh-so-close nail biter in Portland have the Suns atop the Pacific. Devin Booker’s 32 ppg has him tied with Kevin Durant. Chris Paul has 10.7 dimes (2nd) and 2.7 steals (tied for third), not bad for a guy drawing AARP and retirement checks from State Farm. DeAndre Ayton must be still at the bank, because even I can grab eight rebounds a night while cashing a check. |
| Suns
(59-23) |
Warriors
(2-1) |
The Warriors embarrassed the Los Angeles Lakers, got humbled by the Denver Nuggets, and then beat former assistant coach Mike Brown and the Sacramento Kings. So Phoenix is atop the division from a strength-of-schedule perspective. I still think the Warriors repeat. |
| Clippers
(56-26) |
Clippers
(2-1) |
John Wall has looked damned impressive. At 16 ppg, he’s second behind Paul George and is dishing out 3.5 assists, just 0.2 behind Reggie Jackson. Why is Jackson starting again? Kawhi Leonard is coming along slowly at 12.5 points and 6.5 rebounds. Like Minnesota, watch for these guys to come together and explode. |
| Lakers
(55-27) |
Kings
(0-3) |
If only everyone hustled like head coach Mike Brown hustles. |
| Kings
(41-41) |
Lakers
(0-3) |
These guys are the embarrassment of the league, because not a damn one of them will look in the mirror and hold themselves accountable. And they make Russell Westbrook the scape-greatest of all time (scape-G.O.A.T.) No one mentions that Westbrook, Patrick Beverley, and Kendrick Nunn combined to shoot 1-24 against the Los Angeles Clippers, or applauds Westbrook’s defense on Kawhi Leonard resulting in back to back steals. And let’s not ignore that Anthony Davis shot a three-pointer from the baseline that caromed off the top of the backboard, just as bad or worse than any Westbrook miss. And no one, not even Jusuf Nurkic, was guarding him. (What the f*** is Davis shooting threes for anyway?!?) The best move these guys can make would be moving Westbrook to Charlotte for Gordon Hayward, PJ Washington, and Kelly Oubre, Jr. or to Chicago for DeMar DeRozan and Coby White. Three alphas never works. Neither does blame. It’s weaker than weak what they’re doing internally and externally. |
********************
Tracy Graven is the Senior NBA Analyst for BackSportsPage.com.
He has written the NBA, done NBA Radio, and appeared as a guest for the last 21+ years for HoopsWorld, Swish Magazine, HoopsHype, the Coach Scott Fields Show, NBARadioShow.com, and is also tackling the NFL, NCAA, and will be pinch-hitting on some Major League Baseball coverage for BackSportsPage.
He’s spent 21 years in locker rooms in Orlando, Boise (CBA, G League), San Antonio, Phoenix, Denver, Oklahoma City, and Atlanta.
He also enjoys covering G League and The Basketball League, and provides content for the Owensboro (Ky.) Thoroughbreds.
A corporate trainer by day, he currently resides in SEC Country near Knoxville, Tennessee.
Reach him on Twitter at @RealTMoneyMedia
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