The Orioles are buried in the standings and ready to reset for next season. Fortunately, they have players to sell.
The Baltimore Orioles are having a very disappointing season, but they can still make the most of it. With the trade deadline just one week away, the Birds are in a clear selling position. The Orioles are down to 44-57, so any hopes for a resurgent second half are pretty much gone. Fortunately for them, this is a seller’s market, and Baltimore has plenty to sell. The O’s have all kinds of players to sell, from rotation help to lineup staples to bullpen pieces.
GM Mike Elias has made it clear he wants to keep guys with lots of team control, but there are still a number of players who will be free agents soon. Even better, he is willing to eat some money to get a better prospect return.
Let’s go over each aspect of the roster, and what kind of package the Orioles can command in return.
Appealing Bats
The Orioles have two clear rentals available who will help many a lineup around the league. 1B/RF Ryan O’Hearn is playing better than any other Oriole on the market. O’Hearn turned his career around when he came to Baltimore, and his third season at Camden Yards has been his best one. He has a career-best .374 on-base percentage leading to a career best in OPS at .826. His 12 home runs are well on their way to a career high, and O’Hearn earned a starting spot in the AL All-Star lineup.
O’Hearn is playing on an $8 million salary, a bargain for a well-above-average hitter. At this point, the front office probably can’t expect to get a Top 100 prospect for their available players, but they might come close here. Elias absolutely must prioritize upper-level pitching, and he could get a mid-rotation starting prospect for O’Hearn.
OF Cedric Mullins probably has similar trade value to his teammate on the grass, but for different reasons. Mullins is a solid centerfielder who would move seamlessly to left on a team with a better centerfield defender. Defensive metrics have been really harsh to Mullins this year, which has more to do with his arm than his range. A bigger concern is that Mullins hasn’t been the same hitter since a scorching-hot April. His batting line is now a little shy of average, but at least July has been better than May or June.
The good news for the O’s is that the bar for offense in centerfield is low, and many contenders need an upgrade. Mullins has an arbitration salary of $8.7, which is also affordable for his skill set. A backend starter or exciting reliever would be the starting point.
Starters to Go
The Orioles have three starting pitchers available having iffy seasons, to put it mildly. SPs Charlie Morton, Tomoyuki Sugano, and Zach Eflin are all having below-average seasons, but given the demand for starters, they should still find new homes. They have similar salaries, as Sugano is making $13 million, Morton $15 million, and Eflin $18 million.
Despite a disastrous April, Morton is actually getting the most attention. Since returning to the rotation in May, Morton has a 3.74 ERA which is even better than his 2024 in Atlanta, let alone the first month of 2025. His signature curveball still moves, and his fastball velocity is virtually unchanged, so a contender would give up a mid-level prospect for him.
Eflin and Sugano are in similar spots and tougher to figure how much interest other teams have. Both began the years well but have faded during the summer. Plus, Eflin spent some time on the IL. The Orioles Opening Day starter pitched to a 3.00 ERA in the first month, but he got torched in June to the tune of an 8.72 ERA. Eflin has been surprisingly homer prone, as he gave up seven each in May and June. Taken together, Eflin has an ugly 5.78 ERA, and his FIP isn’t much better. But he pitched well on Wednesday is his return from the IL, so someone might take a shot for a small return.
Sugano, meanwhile, has a less extreme version of Eflin’s profile. Coming over from NPB, his reputation of having elite command and few strikeouts has sort of come true. He has a very low strikeout rate of 14.2% and a low walk rate of 5.8%, but the concerning aspect is that Sugano hasn’t dotted the corners. He has thrown too many hittable pitches, which doesn’t work for someone with mild stuff. The poor peripherals have caught up to him, as Sugano has a 6.69 ERA since the start of June when he entered it in the low threes. Sugano’s 4.54 ERA is the best of the bunch, but he might have the least appeal from contenders.
Lively Arms
Any reliever on a seller could technically be up for grabs since their futures are so murky, but the Orioles have two clear rentals available. Every contender needs help in the bullpen, especially some division rivals. Coincidentally or not, both relievers came in trades with the Philadelphia Philles last July. RPs Seranthony Dominguez and Gregory Soto both have great stuff and little idea where the ball is going, which makes fans anxious. Like the bats, Dominguez has a salary of $8 million, while Soto is at $5.35 million. They have similar trade value as Dominguez is a little better, but also a little pricier.
Dominguez is playing a little better than last year, with a 3.40 ERA and 3.65 FIP. His new splitter is hard to control, but it has become his best pitch. His strikeout rate has improved to 30%, and his walk rate has shot up to 14%, but his home run rate has dropped, which is crucial. Dominguez isn’t as good as his early days in Philly, but he is at his best in the last three years.
Soto is the same pitcher he has always been, which is both a good and bad thing. His strikeout rate is holding steady is 26%, and he has a double-digit walk rate as usual. Weirdly, his is giving up fewer homers but more hard contact, which some evaluators might view as a positive and other might think is a negative. Teams need lefties in the bullpen, and Soto is a useful one.
Other Candidates
A surprising development is that OF Ramon Laureano is having a great season. He was supposed to be the short side of a platoon and a defensive replacement. But instead, Laureano has been the best outfielder on the team. His .855 OPS is close to a career high, and his 139 OPS+ is easily the best of his career. Contrary to the scouting report, he has started crushing righties. Plus, Laureano still has a great arm, so he helps the team in multiple ways. His $4 million deal was the best Elias made in the offseason, and he holds a club option.
Another player who signed a one-year deal with a club option is RP Andrew Kittredge. He is making $9 million, and he could make the same amount next season. The front office doesn’t have to trade him or Laureano, but it would be prudent. Kittredge has spent time on the IL and hasn’t replicated his excellence from 2024. But he is still a solid reliever, posting a 3.62 ERA and 3.46 FIP. He has an average strikeout rate and strong walk rate. There is no way to prove this, but I suspect his casual delivery throws off hitters.
All statistics are through July 23.
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