Starting Pitching is Not Dying, it’s Thriving

As modern baseball continues to emphasize maximum effort on every pitch, it is only inevitable that starting pitching becomes minimized in value. That is not surprising. The bodies of pitchers break down more easily than in the past. Starters throw above 90 MPH on the vast majority of their pitches in an effort to induce swinging strikes psychologically demoralize opponents. Pitches have more movement than ever before, a result of wild and unsafe contortions of the arm and elbow that strain the ligaments to their brink. Today’s pitching is no longer about inducing weak contact on a mid-80s fastball. And with more technology than ever before at hitters’ fingertips, they can easily make in-game adjustments.

Starters today are in this category just as relievers are, even if they cannot sustain 100 MPH fastballs for seven innings. And yet, somehow, contrary to popular belief, instead of being on the verge of extinction, starters are thriving. Of course, the old guard of starters are retiring, leaving the current crop to define standards of excellence. The historic benchmarks of 3000 strikeouts and 250 wins are no longer attainable. League leaders in wins are often around 18, with the previous standard of 20 left for otherworldly offensive support. Starters today also average between 90 and 100 pitches, which is lower than the past. Due to injuries, durability in starting pitching is actually more important than ever before. Remaining consistent for several years makes or breaks careers rather than having one or two amazing seasons. Even one Tommy John Surgery can rerail a pitcher’s chances at reaching present-day benchmarks for pitching, such as what SP Gerrit Cole has been going through.

What it Takes

But, this does not mean that pitching today is an impossible to task to live up to the standards of previous generations. Pitchers today face the toughest difficulty level the game has ever seen. I cannot understate the sheer quality of talent and necessary level of concentration to play baseball. Hitters still fear starters, and both suffer devastating injuries playing as hard as the game demands. To compare the likes of SPs Tarik Skubal and Paul Skenes to SPs Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson is a disservice to the game today.

It is true, unfortunately, that Little League pitchers already train to throw hard even though they haven’t developed enough physically to handle the fatigue and stress. Scouts for both college and pro ball look younger for the next fireballer. Amateurs want to wow them and get noticed so they can get a scholarship or a signing bonus. In many ways, every game matters in pitching today because nothing is guaranteed compared to years back. Since they cannot expect to stay healthy, pitchers make the most of their appearances where they are intact.

MLB starters today receive help in the form of six-man rotations and new players shuffling onto the roster. When teams need a fresh arm before trade season in July, they call up someone rested from AAA. Many teams have experimented with larger rotations in the recent past, and they work out fairly well for both the player and team.

Using a six-man rotation for a full season would mean they each starter could make exactly 27 starts. That would cut down their number of annual starts by five or six, or roughly one per month. If a team has a relatively young rotation, a larger rotation would be advantageous so each pitcher could have more time to rest and recover. It would also benefit an older rotation since every pitcher could use more rest, and it would allow an up-and-coming starter to gradually take the spot of an aging veteran. In turn, younger starters would gain confidence and experience and learn from their mentoring teammates. No one would carry too much of a burden to be The Guy when six are pitching.

Future Standards

In the next ten or even 20 years, we will continue to see the desirable number of quality starts and wins drop to around 15 wins per season among the best starters. Even as relievers pitch more and more innings and starters continue to suffer injuries, managers still need someone to pitch at least half the game. The game will continue to evolve as the needs of teams change, and pitchers become more dynamic in their roles.

However, nothing will ever completely take away the need for starting pitching. And nothing will relegate a starter’s role to just three or four innings. Starters are a breed in the process of evolution, seeking to survive in a sport that still needs them. They do not fear being replaced, and nor should they. The only question people should be asking is, how good can the newest generation of starters be?