This year’s NBA Playoffs have not gone well for superstars of the Eastern Conference. Ben Simmons, Bradley Beal, and Kyrie Irving are absent from playoff competition. Joel Embiid was unceremoniously swept. Giannis Antentokoumnpo seems to be on his way to suffer an exit at the hands of the Miami HEAT. Talking heads galore are touting the long-term ramifications of these losses: dissension! Anger! Trade requests!
This has made Golden State Warriors fans understandably giddy. Loaded with the most assets the team has had in years, the rumor mill is bubbling over. At this point, some fans might be crushed if the Dubs don’t end up swinging a deal for Embiid or Antetokounmpo. While it’s fun to imagine the possibility of one of those stars teaming up with the Splash Brothers, the time has come to officially pump the brakes on hyping a major deal.
To understand why, let’s take a look at what most observers view as the Warriors’ best offer: Andrew Wiggins, the number two pick in this year’s NBA draft, and Minnesota’s top 3 protected pick next year. While this is a nice package, armchair general managers are constantly overvaluing every piece involved. Wiggins showed flashes of being the real deal in Golden State, but his stats in blue and gold looked remarkably similar to his numbers in Minneapolis, where his five year 150 million dollar deal was regarded as one of the worst contracts in the league. Maple Jordan is certainly more appealing after a savvy franchise went out of their way to acquire him, but even if you paint a Prius like a Lamborghini, it won’t sell like one.
Meanwhile, the value of the second pick at its lowest in a considerable amount of time. In recent years teams have been able to get highly touted prospects at the two spot. Names like Victor Oladipo, Brandon Ingram, and DeAngelo Russell have all grown to become all-star players, and even the worst picks of the last five years in Lonzo Ball and Marvin Bagley are still regarded as high-potential players. This year, there’s almost no sense of enthusiasm around the pick. Though it still merits obvious value, the lack of high profile prospects has teams looking more towards trading down than up, meaning the Dubs will get less for the pick now than ever before.
Outside of the misalignment on how valuable the Warriors’ assets are, would-be traders often forget about the fact that trading with the Dubs can sink the perception of a franchise. Nobody wants to face the backlash from helping create a superteam. This phenomena has happened before: in 2016, the Warriors had agreed to sign Kevin Durant, but needed to clear Andrew Bogut’s 11 million dollar salary. They found a taker in the Dallas Mavericks, who were immediately raked over the coals for allowing Golden State to pull off the deal. Though teams certainly would be receiving more than a hobbled center, they will still be wary of not wanting to create another title contender.
Aside from value, history also dictates that the Warriors’ offer might not be good enough to land them a true superstar. Though the Dubs can offer a good bundle of pieces, it would pale in comparison to previous deals for some of the league’s top players. Paul George warranted Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Danilo Gallinari, and five first round picks. Anthony Davis cost the Los Angeles Lakers Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, and three first rounders. Kawhi Leonard would’ve warranted a similar package if the San Antonio Spurs didn’t want to send him to the most frigid possible destination. Point is, though the Warriors can make a decent offer, it comes nowhere close to the lengths other teams have been willing to go in order to snag an All-NBA caliber player. It would be surprising if another team doesn’t pull out all the stops to give a seller a better deal.
Finally, even without all those obstacles, people rarely think about how fit would factor into a potential deal. Giannis playing with the Splash Brothers seems like a good idea at face value, but would force the Dubs into pairing him with Draymond Green. This would be nothing short of a spacing disaster. While Joel Embiid is a slightly better shooter, trading for him would also shrink the floor for Golden State, as well as stripping them of their ability to go small. To have any semblance of spacing, Green would probably have to get the boot as well. Aside from any potential riots this may cause, the Warriors won’t get much in return for him. After all, very few teams are going to want to give north of 27 million dollars to a 33 year-old player reliant on athleticism and strength.
Trade or no trade, the Warriors will be back in the mix next year. However, it’s time Dubs fans started viewing the team’s situation objectively. In order to enjoy the next season, Warriors fans should stop looking towards the past: the Dubs won’t be the bottom feeders they were last year, nor the outright favorites of the 2010’s. Instead, expecting a solid playoff team will allow Dub Nation to truly enjoy the last few years of the Splash Brothers rather than watching those years pass them by while they wait for a big move.
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