AL East Mid-Season Report

The AL East could have three playoff teams again this year. The order of the teams is still up in the air at the halfway point of the season.

The Beast of the AL East is still the best division in baseball. The division’s combined record is 250-211, the best of any division. Through July 10, the Baltimore Orioles were the new division leaders after passing the New York Yankees. The Boston Red Sox have heated up like a crowded elevator stuck on its way to the top of the John Hancock Tower. Further south, the Tampa Bay Rays are on track for their first losing season since 2017. Lastly, north of the border, the Toronto Blue Jays are grounded at the bottom of the division after they clipped their own wings. Regardless of how the final standings play out, the east is greased for a fun fall.

Baltimore Orioles

Team Record: 57-35

The Orioles are flying high this season on the wings of All-Star starters SS Gunner Henderson and C Adley Rutschman. A pre-season trade for SP Corbin Burnes strengthened the rotation, but the power display by the lineup has been the real key. 147 home runs and counting are leading all of baseball. The O’s have taken advantage of the struggles of the Yankees to claim the top spot in the AL East. About the only thing to go wrong this season in Baltimore was the premature call up of prospect 2B Jackson Holliday.

As long as the lineup keeps producing, the Orioles should be a lock for the postseason. How well they fare depends on their pitching. The Orioles have the top farm system in baseball. This is on top of an already young core, which means they are running out of places for young players. In other words, this is the season to trade some prospects to prosper in the present, even if it means losing a future asset. The change of ownership in the offseason landed them Burnes, so another big move is in the cards. Add the early playoff exit from last season and suddenly, one of the least intimidating mascots in sports becomes one of the most fearsome.

New York Yankees

Team Record: 56-38

The OF Juan Soto honeymoon for New York is over. The Yankees were the best team in baseball for most of the first half of the season. But in the last month, they have been the worst team in baseball. In other words, the team’s performance has been the exact opposite of OF Aaron Judge’s performance which makes as much sense as playing “New York, New York” when leaving Fenway during a tied ALDS. As an objective writer, I should give some suggestions for how New York can improve. Instead of racking my brain, I’ll say what many Yankees fans have told me…fire Aaron Boone. Boone was pantsed over Fourth of July weekend by Alex Cora, losing two of three and giving up three home runs to 3B Rafael Devers, a known Yankee Killer.

None of this is to say the Yankees will miss the playoffs. I don’t think we will get that lucky, but no one should be concerned about this version of the team come October. If they Yankees are going to return to the top of baseball, they will need to find a more effective closer. RP Clay Holmes has been great, but his lack of swing and miss pitches is catching up to him. Also, the bottom of the lineup looks like they’re fighting one another to see who can get demoted to Triple-A Scranton first. The early shortstop comparisons between Anthony Volpe and Derek Jeter have disappeared as well. At least, 1B Ben Rice looks like he could be the real deal going forward at first base.

Boston Red Sox

Team Record: 50-41

Since 2019, the Red Sox as a franchise have been fighting to be irrelevant. The Boston Celtics title in June was the perfect event to make everyone forget about the Sox all summer long. Instead, these players have made them one of the fastest and most fun teams in all of baseball to watch. The feat is more impressive considering the lack of support from their absentee owners. Three players made their way to the All-Star Game. 3B Rafael Devers is making his third appearance while OF Jarren Duran and SP Tanner Houck earned their first trips. Beyond the individual brilliance of those three, the Sox have won by reinventing themselves. The traditionally slow, power hitting Sox have become a terror on the base paths. The 88 stolen bases are sixth in MLB.

The steals have been a game changer, but the way the Sox have won has shifted from pitching to hitting as well. After having some of the best starters in baseball in April, the pitching tapered off. Fortunately, the hitting awoke late from hibernation to begin carrying the team in the summer. More good news is 1B Triston Casas could return someday, which is great if you can find someday on the calendar.  Lastly, the fate of this team hinges on two things. The first is pitching receiving reinforcements at the deadline, or all of the young starters staying strong even as they blow by their record for innings pitched in a year. The second key will be the offense staying hot, which again could be done via trade or young players like OF Ceddanne Rafaela and OF Wilyer Abreu continuing to grow before our eyes.

Tampa Bay Rays

Team Record: 45-47

There have been very few rays of sunshine this season at Tropicana Field. The Rays have struggled with a .500 record or worse most season. This may be their chance to improve their farm system which ranked fourteenth at the start of the season. The largest culprit of the Rays rough road is OF Randy Arozarena. The former Rookie of the Year and 2023 All-Star couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat this year. Besides him, the Rays are 25th in run differential this year at minus 66. Their record should probably be worse than what it is and is the worst differential in the AL East.

The analytics have not been effective for Rays pitchers this year either. Their best pitcher in terms of WAR this year is SP Zack Littell, ranked 46. Gone are the days of SP Blake Snell terrorizing opposing lineups. The team ERA of 4.31 is 24th in the league. It was inevitable the discount rack would empty out eventually, and manager Kevin Cash can no longer cash these checks effectively anymore. In conclusion, Tampa will have to settle for the Florida Panthers being the best team in the state when it comes to swinging wooden sticks in the Sunshine State.

Toronto Blue Jays

Team Record: 42-50

I attempted calling Toronto fans in Canada, but all I got were voicemails. I guess the team and the fans have already migrated south for the winter. Toronto has the eighth highest payroll in baseball, but it has not translated to success this year. It also only bought the team one All-Star, starting first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. SS Bo Bichette was supposed to be an annual All-Star too but instead looks like a prime change of scenery trade candidate. Bichette led the league in hits twice, but this year is hitting .222. Manager John Schneider will likely be run out of town during the season or skied out of town this winter.

The Blue Jays are caught between nests at the moment. They have an expensive, underperforming roster and a poor farm system does not look promising either. The good news is Toronto fans are used to being disappointed lately thanks to the Maple Leafs. In a highly competitive AL East, look for Toronto to be sellers, or in other words, to put position players on the mound for the remainder of the season.