The Orioles are currently thin on the mound due to injuries and poor performance, but they still have time to prepare for the playoffs.
The Baltimore Orioles have been underwhelming for much of the summer. Since July 1, the O’s have a mediocre record of 20-22. While the offense has been steady more or less, the pitching staff is struggling to keep itself together. Resting during the all-star break only provided a small boost, as they were 5-7 in the first two weeks of July and then 7-6 in the last two. August hasn’t been any better, as they are 8-9 this month and continue to struggle against NL teams.
The bottom-line statistics and peripherals paint a similar picture. Since July 1 again, the Orioles are 25th at 4.98. Their FIP is 15th, while their expected FIP is 17th, and their SIERA 16th. The latter two take batted ball types and quality into account, which points to the team’s poor defensive play in July hurting their run prevention.
But while the Orioles have moved past their defensive slump, they still have plenty of question marks on the mound, in both the rotation and the bullpen. The trade deadline acquisitions have been a mixed bag, as SP Zach Eflin and RP Seranthony Dominguez have been stellar, but SP Trevor Rogers and RP Gregory Soto are often hard to watch. SP Albert Suarez has been a life saver stepping in for SP Grayson Rodriguez, but no one knows how long he can keep this up. Plus, the coaches have stopped using RP Craig Kimbrel is high-leverage situations after so many meltdowns.
The Orioles are not in dire circumstances, as they still fight for the top of the American League, and many other contenders are struggling, as well. But here are two quick fixes to improve the pitching staff.
Call Up the Prospects
The Orioles beat me to the punchline here, as they promoted SP Cade Povich for a spot start over the weekend. He was excellent Saturday, giving up two runs over six-and-one-third innings against the Boston Red Sox. More importantly, he allowed zero walks and routinely threw first pitch strikes. Instead of the inefficient guy in his previous stint, Povich looked like a reliable starting pitcher. The Orioles could soon call him up again and move to a six-man rotation.
Povich is not the only prospect option, though. SP Chayce McDermott is currently on the minor league injured list, but SP Brandon Young is on the cusp of making his debut. GM Mike Elias even admitted recently that Young is under consideration for a promotion. A developmental success story, Young has gone from undrafted free agent to one of the best pitchers in the system. 2024 is his best season yet, as he has already set a career high in innings while reaching AAA. Young currently sports a 3.38 ERA with the Norfolk Tides, which is quite strong. The run scoring environment in the International League is higher than MLB, so 3.38 would rank 3rd in the league if he qualified. Young has a 26.4% strikeout rate and 9.4% walk rate at the highest level of the minors.
Keep Shopping in the Bargain Bin
Last clunker notwithstanding, SP Corbin Burnes has been as good as advertised. But teams can’t acquire an ace this time of year. That means front offices must work the waiver wire and sign players to minor league contracts. Fortunately, finding diamonds in the rough is Elias’s specialty. DH/OF Ryan O’Hearn, RP Yennier Cano, and RP Danny Coulombe all fit into this category, and it is possible there are two new additions.
RP Burch Smith has been the definition of a journeyman reliever, suiting up for seven different MLB teams in addition to playing in Japan and South Korea. After the Miami Marlins released him in June, Smith now appears to be breaking out with the Orioles. In 15.1 innings, he has an unremarkable 4.11 ERA, but his FIP and xFIP are almost a full run better. His strikeout rate is a healthy 27.1%, while his walk rate is a tremendous 3.4%. The runs are mostly coming off of homers, which has not been an issue in recent years, so there is good reason to expect his results to improve going forward.
Interestingly, Smith has added a sweeper since joining the Orioles, and he is throwing far fewer curveballs. His average fastball velocity has also improved a tick, so that could explain the increase in strikeouts.
We are talking about small sample sizes with Smith, but the next possible breakout has a much smaller sample. The O’s acquired RP Colin Selby from the Kansas City Royals in July for cash, and he made his team debut Monday night. He faced four New York Mets and got all four of them out. With a large red beard worthy of a lumberjack, Selby struck out three of those four batters, and three of the outs came on sinkers ranging from 95-97 MPH. This was just one appearance, but he couldn’t have made a better first impression.
Predicting the Next Find
If you are looking for the next popup reliever, the answer may lie with someone who joined the organization last week. The Orioles agreed to a minor league deal with RP Matt Bowman, who has extensive big league experience. He has played for three MLB teams this season with lackluster results in just 15 innings but has pitched better in the past. What is more relevant, is that Bowman has sparkling numbers at AAA this year, with a 1.87 ERA over 33.2 innings. That includes three shutout innings with the Tides.
The intriguing wrinkle is that the contract includes an upward mobility clause on August 22. If Bowman triggers it, the Orioles would have to gauge if another team is willing to give him a spot on their active roster. If so, Baltimore would then need to purchase his contract or send him to that team. Given Bowman’s performance in AAA and the state of the Orioles bullpen, there is a good chance he will be pitching at Camden Yards this weekend.
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