A Pointless Rematch?

Even at the peak of Alex Pereira’s reign atop the UFC Light Heavyweight division, many considered Magomed Ankalaev to be his kryptonite.  When Ankalaev dethroned Pereira in their long-anticipated showdown, it only confirmed this notion.  Heading into the immediate rematch, few expected Pereira to rebound.  The narratives practically wrote themselves.  Ankalaev was simply the better fighter.  The UFC could no longer hide Alex from this matchup.  Alex would not be able to do anything differently than the first fight.

Image – Sky Sports,  Periera v Ankalaev

The Surprise

The rematch did not last long.  Alex immediately flipped the script by backing Ankalev up against the fence.  After some brief striking exchanges, Alex caught Ankalaev with a heavy overhand.  The shot wobbled Ankalaev, who instinctively shot for a takedown.  Pereira stuffed the takedown and unloaded vicious ground and pound on Ankalaev.  With Magomed still dazed and unable to defend effectively, the referee stopped the contest and Pereira earned an incredible first round finish.  

 

Immediate Reactions

Given Pereira’s immense popularity, MMA fans largely rejoiced at this outcome.  The narratives immediately flipped.  People declared that Alex was simply not himself in the first fight.  They attributed Pereira’s low striking output to fatigue from back-to-back title defenses.  Thus, the narrative goes, Pereira took time to recover and proved that Ankalaev was not on his level in their rematch.  Since most fans consider Pereira an exciting champion and Ankalaev an uninteresting fighter, this narrative caught fire.  In my opinion, however, the truth is much more complex.

A Big Risk

Prior to this series, Pereira’s previous loss was a devastating KO against Israel Adesanya.  In that fight, Pereira seemingly held the advantage, and started teeing off on Adesanya.  This left him open for a perfect counter, which knocked Alex out cold.  Since then, Alex showed significant improvement in his striking defense, keeping himself safe even against dangerous punchers at light heavyweight.  Indeed, he protected himself well against Ankalaev in their first meeting.  He defended every takedown attempt and lost a competitive decision.  Ankalev’s sharp defense, however, stifled much of Pereira’s usual offense.  

Image – MMA Fighting, Pereira v Ankalaev

The clear path to victory for Pereira was to increase his aggression, as he did in the rematch.  But that gameplan is much easier said than done, especially against a dangerous counterstriker.  Pereira won the rematch in stunning fashion.  But his strategy carried high risk.  Had his shot not landed, Ankalaev could have countered and finished Pereira himself, just as Adesanya did.  While the fight ended quickly, the short exchange was a highly competitive one which put Pereira in immense danger, even though he ultimately emerged unscathed.

Legacy

This analysis does not diminish Pereira’s accomplishment.  In fact, it makes it all the more impressive.  Ankalaev’s success in the first fight was not a fluke.  He beat several other contenders to earn his title shot, and he skillfully out-scored Alex in their first fight.  Alex knew that in order to beat someone as skilled as Ankalaev, he would have to risk getting knocked out himself.  But his preparation and focus allowed Alex to overcome that danger and prevail.  It was a stunning, spectacular performance, and arguably the greatest of his illustrious combat sports career.

Image – The Ring Magazine, Alex Pereira