We are more than halfway through the MLB season, and a number of teams are playing much better or worse than expected.
Every season is surprising in MLB, and this year has been no exception. That is especially true at the team level, where a number of clubs are overperforming, while some others have been underwhelming. In a league where 18 teams miss the playoffs, plenty of fanbases enter October on a sour note. But some parts of the country are surprised their teams are headed in the wrong direction.
Fortunately, we don’t have to rely on the mood of the public alone to determine who’s hot and who’s not. We can quantity that based on the essential FanGraphs playoff odds. In this case, comparing current percentages to Opening Day will be the main focus, with some recent trends mixed in.
Give Them Credit
There is really only one team to start with, and that is the Detroit Tigers. Following a miracle run to the postseason in 2024, the Tigers have taken another step forward and hold the best record in MLB. FanGraphs gave them a 46.6% chance returning to the playoffs, and now that figure is up to a staggering 99.6%. Detroit is running away with an AL Central title, as their 13.5 game lead is the largest of any division leader.
When things are going this well, players are showing up. 2B Gleyber Torres is an All-Star in his first year in Michigan, while SS Javier Baez is all the way back after years in the wilderness. Plus, SP Tarik Skubal isn’t a one-man show anymore, as SP Casey Mize is finally living up to his potential as a former #1 overall pick.
The Houston Astros are in a similar spot, as a team that entered 2025 with plenty of questions marks now sits in a very comfortable position. They hold a seven-game lead in the AL West, which actually understates how well things are going. Also like the AL Central, the West appeared wide open in March, and the Astros had a 53.5% chance of making it, behind the Seattle Mariners and Texas Rangers. Now, Houston is up to 98.3% despite plenty of injuries.
After trading OF Kyle Tucker and letting 3B Alex Bregman walk, this team really shouldn’t be this good. But 3B Isaac Paredes and OF Cam Smith have become immediate contributors. In addition, SP Hunter Brown has turned into an ace, and RP Josh Hader is this at his very best.
Panic Mode
On the flip side in MLB, everything is going wrong for the Atlanta Braves. A club that should be competing for best record in the league is now 11 games under .500. In what seemed like a three-race, the Braves are now in fourth in the NL East. FG was especially high on Atlanta, as their playoff odds have dropped from 92.5% all the way to 6%.
The Braves have lost most of their strong rotation to injury, and the replacements aren’t picking up the slack. But the bigger problem is that the lineup of players signed long term aren’t hitting much. Former young stars OF Michael Harris and 2B Ozzie Albies have lost all ability to hit for average or get on base. 1B Matt Olson and 3B Austin Riley are still pretty good but not at their best anymore at the plate.
Similar circumstances reside with the Baltimore Orioles, who also looked like a contender preseason but haven’t played like it. Even after coming off a sweep in Atlanta, the O’s are still nine games under .500. They started the year with 48.2% chance of making the postseason, but now they are down to 4%. That’s actually up from a season low of 1.3% of May 28, given that the Birds have a winning record since then.
The Orioles haven’t totally turned things around since firing Manager Brandon Hyde, but they still have a glimmer of hope. The rotation has been the main issue this season, but at least SPs Charlie Morton and Dean Kremer have been solid after a disastrous April. More prescient, though, have been the injuries. Only the Los Angeles Dodgers have had more players on the IL, and they are better at building depth. The Baltimore active roster is down to its 5th and 6th catchers.
(Dis)honorable Mentions
Outside of the extremes, there are some other teams winning more or fewer games than people expected. The Toronto Blue Jays are surging and currently hold a three-game lead in the AL East. Their many role players have finally emerged as meaningful contributors. In the Midwest, the St. Louis Cardinals are playing winning baseball even though the front office did not try to compete this year. And finally, the San Francisco Giants have overperformed to such an extent that they made a June blockbuster trade for DH Rafael Devers.
But the fortune of the Giants has been the misfortune of the Boston Red Sox, who might have been division favorites in March but only creeped over .500 on Sunday. San Fran’s success has also come at the hands of the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are currently 44-46. The Snakes’ rotation has been bad and hurt, so they might decide to sell. It is safe to say my preseason World Series pick in MLB looks poor.
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