Kyle Schwarber has built a reputation for hitting mammoth blasts, and now he’s building a sneaky case for the Hall of Fame.
DH Kyle Schwarber is one of the most popular and mesmerizing figures in baseball today. The man who tore his ACL in the opening week of the 2016 season became an integral part of the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series. When their fortunes took a downward turn, he went to Washington and Boston to make the most of his opportunities. And now, Schwarber has experienced a career renaissance playing for the Philadelphia Phillies. He now has 180 home runs with the Phillies, all in less than four years. When he is healthy, Schwarber proves he is one of the best hitters in MLB. Oh, and of course he won the first-ever swing off in this year’s All-Star Game and took home MVP honors.
Schwarber is a hero in two cities and appears to be a likeable guy. He is not as demonstrative as his teammate 1B Bryce Harper, who often gets ejected for arguing with umpires. Schwarber could be much better in the outfield, and he’s been a primary DH for a few years now. He lacks any speed or range to play the field regularly. But he still stands out among his fellow sluggers, as he is now up to 49 home runs on the season. He continues to lack a high batting average, but it has improved in recent years, and he boasts a near-elite slugging percentage. The bad news for Schwarber is that he struck out over 600 times in his first three seasons with the Phillies. The good news is he led the NL in home runs in 2022 and scored over 100 runs in each of those three seasons.
Question Going Forward
There is certainly a chance that Schwarber puts together three or four more seasons with this production. That would bring his WAR7 (the WAR of his seven best seasons) to a respectable level. That said, WAR underestimates his value to the Phillies. Schwarber is a late bloomer in the mold of OF Aaron Judge or OF Dwight Evans who deserves his place in Cooperstown someday. The early part of his career is a case of what could have been, if he was healthy and skillful from the beginning. Now, his team makes the most of his talents and pushes him to greater heights. If the Phillies make some more playoff runs, and maybe Schwarber wins an NLCS MVP Award, then the conversation changes dramatically.
Perhaps the most important way to judge power hitters is by the eye test, a subjective but key determinant of a player’s impact on the game and their public perception. In the past four years, Schwarber has certainly been passing the eye test with his jaw-dropping moonshots and big playoff moments. Speaking of the NLCS, Schwarber holds the series record for long balls with 11. That clearly works in his favor, including five in 2023. The eye test gives Schwarber extra credit for his ongoing peak. The question is how long that peak will last. Unfortunately, looking at Schwarber’s career right now, there are bleak prospects for a future Cooperstown plaque.
Hall of Fame Chances
Entering this season, Schwarber has never been inside the top ten for MVP voting, let alone the top five. He has just three All-Star nods alongside one Silver Slugger. As mentioned, his lack of defensive prowess makes it difficult to bolster his case as a multi-faceted player. His career on-base percentage is relatively lackluster by historical standards, and he las only led the league in homers once. He has twice as many strikeouts as RBI and only recently reached 1000 hits. 2000 is very far away, mind you. Of those, a third are homers, so extrapolating leads to possibly 1500 hits and 500 home runs.
The magical 500 home runs are not an automatic guarantee of election, but in the modern game with its propensity for injuries, it can make a strong case down the line as the game evolves. There are reasons to believe Schwarber can keep up this strong run of production. For starters, his team has been committed to him for several years, and his relationships with teammates are quite good, as far as we know. Schwarber will be an unrestricted free agency, so he will be asking for a significant raise. The Phillies already have plenty of money on the books, including Harper’s large contract. Thus, finding a new team is not out of the question since Schwarber will want as much money as possible. This will be the biggest contract of his career. If the Phillies remain serious about staying in title contention, they will want to bring him back. Schwarber has already proven their money was well spent.
Intangibles
Schwarber is extremely popular among Philly fans, and people in Chicago love him, as well. He is not a one-team player who gets credit for his loyalty more than his overall body of work. Yet this may be to Schwarber’s advantage. People continue to flood the internet and MLB Network with praise for his power production, hence the nickname “Schwarbombs”. A steady stream of media saturation and highlight replays could sway the minds of writers. Schwarber will have ten full years on the ballot for voters to consider him. He undoubtedly stands out compared to his contemporary sluggers. The question is, how much?
At this point, time alone will tell if Schwarber is worthy of Cooperstown. He has plenty of reason to believe he is in a good position at this point of his career to someday merit inclusion. Now is ultimately the time for him to remain locked in on the task at hand: playing his best and bringing home another Commissioner’s Trophy to the Bank. The more Schwarbombs fall upon the outfield bleachers of Philadelphia, the greater the legend becomes.
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