MLB free agency is under way, and the baseball writers at Back Sports Page are making their predictions for where the big names will sign.
The MLB offseason has officially started, which means free agents can sign where they please. But most of the big names will wait at least a few weeks before deciding where to move their family for the foreseeable future. For the first time here at Back Sports Page, some of the baseball writers are predicting where those MLB destinations will be. We already made our picks for pitchers, and here are the best hitters.
Juan Soto
Ben Schneider: San Francisco Giants
Jesus Barrera: New York Mets
Joshua Ambroise: New York Yankees
Michael Angers: New York Yankees
Nate Powalie: New York Yankees
Sergio Defrancesca: New York Yankees
For the second straight MLB offseason, the best overall free agent is in a class of their own. Juan Soto isn’t just the best hitter available, but he is also the youngest. Despite being an all-around star and on-base wunderkind since debuting, Soto somehow had his best season yet in a walk year. He set a whole bunch of career highs, including WAR, slugging percentage, hits, home runs, RBI, and runs. Soto made the debatable decision to turn down $440 million from the Washington Nationals in 2021, but the move definitely paid off. He will earn over $500 million and might even pass $600 million in present day value.
Soto would be a huge upgrade for every single MLB team, and at least half the league must be kicking the tires. The Yankees seem to be the favorites given the mutually beneficial relationship, as Soto posted his best season, and the Bombers returned to the World Series. The crosstown Mets might ensure they out-bid everyone to get a generational talent, though the Dodgers could do that as well. Considering how many top-tier free agents the Giants have missed out on in recent winters, they might have to blow through their budget to bring Soto aboard.
Willy Adames
Ben Schneider: San Francisco Giants
Jesus Barrera: Atlanta Braves
Joshua Ambroise: Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Angers: Los Angeles Dodgers
Nate Powalie: Miami Marlins
Sergio Defrancesca: Los Angeles Dodgers
Adames should ostensibly be able to capitalize on his many talents. He has been the heart and soul of the Milwaukee Brewers since joining the team in May 2021, but they probably would not give him a free agent contract. Adames posted another strong batting line with a .794 OPS, comfortably better than his 2022 and 2023 seasons. He also set career highs in games, hits, homers, RBI, and runs. But Adames also had an uncharacteristically poor season on defense, which might be a fluke or an early warning sign. To that end, he indicated he is willing to change positions if necessary.
Adames is both fortunate and unfortunate with his timing to enter free agency. He is by far the best middle infielder on the market but given how many marquee shortstops have reached free agency in recent years, there aren’t that many MLB teams looking for help at that position. Plenty of teams could use a third baseman or second baseman, but assuming he stays at short the Dodgers have the money and can move SS Miguel Rojas back to the bench. The Braves rarely give out long-term deals, but they badly need an upgrade over SS Orlando Arcia. The Giants need to boost a mediocre offense, and they can move SS Tyler Fitzgerald to second. Meanwhile, the Marlins gutted their offense and therefore have plenty of payroll space.
Alex Bregman
Ben Schneider: Detroit Tigers
Jesus Barrera: New York Yankees
Joshua Ambroise: Houston Astros
Michael Angers: Toronto Blue Jays
Nate Powalie: Milwaukee Brewers
Sergio Defrancesca: Houston Astros
Bregman is still a very good player, but he had something of a down year. He got off to a very slow start with a .577 OPS in March and April before heating up the rest of the season. He ended up with a .768 OPS, which is still comfortably above average, and it is possible some teams will write off one bad month. Bregman has been a solid defender throughout his career, and he won his first Gold Glove at the hot corner. Even if his bat is starting to decline, Bregman should still be a reliable option for a number of years at the plate and in the field. That said, much of his power comes from pulling the ball over the Crawford Boxes, and there is a real chance he struggles in an unfavorable park for right-handed hitters.
The Astros are working with a tighter payroll this offseason, but GM Dana Brown has said resigning Bregman is their top priority. If he leaves town, Bregman could reunite with old manager AJ Hinch in Detroit. Alternatively, The Yankees could sign him and move 3B Jazz Chisholm back to second base. Bregman would be a big upgrade over the defensive-minded 3B Ernie Clement in Toronto, and the Brewers need to somehow cover Adames’s production.
Anthony Santander
Ben Schneider: Toronto Blue Jays
Jesus Barrera: Detroit Tigers
Joshua Ambroise: Baltimore Orioles
Michael Angers: New York Mets
Nate Powalie: Chicago Cubs
Sergio Defrancesca: Seattle Mariners
Santander picked the perfect time to have his best season. One of the best Rule 5 picks ever, Santander blew past his career high with 44 home runs and easily set an Orioles record for switch hitters. His .506 slugging percentage and .814 OPS were also career highs in a full season. Santander is a below-average defender in the outfield corners, but no MLB team would be signing him for defense, anyway. This kind of switch-hitting power is hard to find, and he would boost most lineups.
The fact that we each picked a different team tells you there should be plenty of interest but no obvious match, either. A return to Baltimore is possible, though Santander is due for a big raise. The Blue Jays and Tigers both need a third viable starter on the grass and help scoring runs. Santander would quickly become the biggest power threat in Queens or Wrigleyville among outfielders, while the Mariners need offense across the board.
Pete Alonso
Ben Schneider: New York Mets
Jesus Barrera: Seattle Mariners
Joshua Ambroise: New York Mets
Michael Angers: Houston Astros
Nate Powalie: Houston Astros
Sergio Defrancesca: New York Mets
Of any MLB free agent, Alonso has the widest gap between his reputation and his on-field production. He has been the face of the Mets since hitting 53 home runs as a rookie, he has won the Derby twice, and he owns a celebratory pumpkin. But at this point, Alonso is basically a power-only player. He is a decent defender at first base, but that isn’t worth too much on its own. He has been remarkably healthy throughout his career, but he doesn’t do much other than hit homers and doubles. Alonso isn’t worth as much as Adames or Bregman, but I think at least one front office will shrug and pay for the fame as well as the production.
Can you really picture Pete Alonso playing for someone other than the Mets? It may be time to consider that scenario. We will see if Steve Cohen or David Stearns wins out, which will determine whether Alonso stays or leaves. If he looks for a new team, the Astros and Mariners both have gaping holes first base.
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