MLB free agency is under way, and the baseball writers at Back Sports Page are making their predictions for where the big names will sign.
The MLB offseason has officially started, which means free agents can sign where they please. But most of the big names will wait at least a few weeks before deciding where to move their family for the foreseeable future. For the first time here at Back Sports Page, some of the baseball writers are predicting where those MLB destinations will be. First up are the best pitchers, and the best hitters will soon follow.
Corbin Burnes
Ben Schneider: Los Angeles Dodgers
Jesus Barrera: Boston Red Sox
Joshua Ambroise: New York Mets
Michael Angers: Baltimore Orioles
Nate Powalie: Arizona Diamondbacks
Sergio Defrancesca: New York Mets
The Orioles got all they could have hoped for out of Corbin Burnes, and now he is the top pitcher on the market. Burnes posted a 2.92 ERA, his best figure since winning the Cy Young award in 2021. He was also reliably healthy and consistent, throwing 194.1 innings across 32 starts and only once not getting through the fifth inning. But there are still a couple warning signs. By throwing his fantastic cutter more often, Burnes’s strikeout rate dropped once again, and a few hangers led to his highest average exit velocity as a starter. Those are real concerns, but they won’t dissuade any suitors from giving him over $200 million.
Those suitors will be numerous. Every MLB team needs more pitching, and the list of elite, healthy starters is very short. A return to Baltimore is possible but unlikely given the price. Burnes could push a team stuck in the middle over the edge, such as the Red Sox or Diamondbacks. The likeliest scenario, though, will be a recurring theme. The biggest markets can out-bit everyone else. The Mets need starters, and the Dodgers would welcome him back to his home state.
Blake Snell
Ben Schneider: New York Mets
Jesus Barrera: Los Angeles Angels
Joshua Ambroise: San Diego Padres
Michael Angers: Atlanta Braves
Nate Powalie: Seattle Mariners
Sergio Defrancesca: San Francisco Giants
Snell was right to bet on himself, and now he will cash in. After winning the Cy Young in 2023, front offices shied away from a massive contract due to his high walk rate. So, he signed a modified pillow contract with the Giants, which eventually benefitted both parties. Due to the late ramp up period, Snell got off to a terrible start. He went on the injured list in June with a ghastly 9.51 ERA. But he was unhittable the rest of the season, posting an astounding 1.23 ERA after returning from the IL. That included the first no-hitter of his career on August 2.
Snell should now surpass what he would have earned last offseason. Even though he is a year older, he raised his strikeout rate three points and lowered his walk rate by three points. MLB teams will line up for a more reliable version of a two-time Cy Young winner. The Giants really need him back, and the Padres might be interested in a reunion, as well. He could go back to his hometown of Seattle, or the Angels could break their habit of not spending on starters. If he switches coasts, Atlanta is now thin on high-end starters, or he would fit right in with the Mets clubhouse.
Max Fried
Ben Schneider: Baltimore Orioles
Jesus Barrera: Los Angeles Dodgers
Joshua Ambroise: Atlanta Braves
Michael Angers: New York Mets
Nate Powalie: Cleveland Guardians
Sergio Defrancesca: Boston Red Sox
It is tempting to say Fried is the same pitcher he’s always been, but that wasn’t exactly the case in 2024. After only making 14 starts last season, he made 29 this year, though he still spent some time on the IL. He was still good with a 3.25 ERA but did not come close to replicating his 2022 season, when he has a 2.48 ERA and finished second in Cy Young voting. His strikeout rate, walk rate, and hard-hit rate all went in the wrong direction though not far from his career norms. Believe it or not, his two complete games led all of MLB in 2024, but he was also prone to some clunkers.
Fried is still an ace but won’t cost quite as much as Burnes or Snell, so mid-payroll teams like the Orioles or even Guardians could be in play. October showed how badly Cleveland needs more starters. Atlanta would love to have him back, but he might be ready to move on. He could also go back home to SoCal, or perhaps playing for a large Jewish fan base in New York or Boston will tempt him.
Jack Flaherty
Ben Schneider: Los Angeles Angels
Jesus Barrera: Baltimore Orioles
Joshua Ambroise: Los Angeles Dodgers
Michael Angers: Chicago Cubs
Nate Powalie: Kansas City Royals
Sergio Defrancesca: Detroit Tigers
What do we make of Jack Flaherty? He was also right to bet on himself by signing a one-year contract with the Tigers, and then he helped the Dodgers win the World Series. Overall, Flaherty had a 3.17 ERA, which was his lowest since 2019, and his 160 innings was his highest total since 2019. He is the youngest starter here at 29, so he might still have some remaining upside. But 2024 was his only good season since 2021, when he threw just 78.1 innings. His postseason was a microcosm of his career, as he made two good starts, two bad ones, and one mediocre start. Flaherty remade his mechanics last offseason, but I don’t think any team really knows what they’re getting with him.
Even so, plenty of teams would bet on the present upside. The Orioles already tried that last season, but the deadline acquisition ended up being a disaster. Flaherty has said he would like to stay with the Dodgers, but maybe Anaheim is still local enough. Signing with Detroit worked so well he might go back there or perhaps he could steady a lopsided rotation in Kansas City or Chicago.
Tanner Scott
Ben Schneider: New York Mets
Jesus Barrera: Philadelphia Phillies
Joshua Ambroise: New York Yankees
Michael Angers: Boston Red Sox
Nate Powalie: Washington Nationals
Sergio Defrancesca: New York Yankees
Tanner Scott is easily the best reliever on the market and will be paid as such. He probably won’t get as much as CPs Josh Hader or Edwin Diaz, but he should come close. After a number of very wild years with the Orioles, Scott became a shutdown arm with the Miami Marlins. He posted a 2.31 ERA in a career-high 78 innings last year then came out even better in 2024. He had a sparkling 1.18 ERA when the Padres paid up for him at the deadline, and San Diego is certainly happy with the trade. Scott had “only” a 2.73 ERA afterwards, but ironically his FIP dropped by almost a full run. More importantly, he totally shut down DH Shohei Ohtani in the playoffs.
Scott isn’t just the best reliever available, but also fits into multiple roles. He can hold down the ninth inning as a closer, but he can also work as a fireman or lefty specialist. Every MLB team always needs more relievers, so plenty of GMs will be interested. The Mets could double down on pricey closers, or the Phillies could sign him after their postseason implosions. Scott would be a clear upgrade over RP Clay Holmes in the Bronx, and Scott is also a cut above everyone in the Boston bullpen. Or maybe the Nationals see this as their splashy move to get back in contention.
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