Following a dominant 2024 season from Mason Miller, could a return to the rotation be in the cards for the future?
CP Mason Miller made his major league debut in 2023, starting against the Chicago Cubs for a struggling Oakland Athletics team looking for any bright spot in their starting rotation to build around. Miller was ranked the #4 prospect in the Athletics system at the time. His compelling story is that he was diagnosed with Type 1 juvenile diabetes in 2018 and despite that, he is consistently able to touch 100+ mph for multiple innings. As SP Spencer Strider was in the midst of a breakout campaign at the same time, the similarities between the two were inevitable, as their elite fastballs were a pitch very few starters possess. Miller has been an elite closer this season, but there is a chance he returns to the rotation next year.
Mason Miller’s Debut
The flamethrowing rookie’s debut opened lots of eyeballs, touching 100 mph 15 times and striking out five. Miller threw his four-seamer 53 times out of his 81 pitches, averaging 99.3 mph and maxing out at 102.5. It’s clear what the right hander’s best weapon was and how good it is. 3B Patrick Wisdom of the Chicago Cubs said, “It was fast. He’s got an electric heater. You have to make your decisions all that much quicker and get ready even earlier. He’s electric.” Unfortunately for Miller, he only made four more starts that season and ended it on the injured list with forearm tightness, eventually being diagnosed with a sprained UCL while avoiding surgery.
Mason Miller’s 2024 Campaign
Going into the 2024 season, A’s Manager Mark Kotsay announced Mason Miller will be the team’s closer going into the season. Officially moving to the bullpen full-time gave Miller the chance to show off his power fastball for just an inning at a time every opportunity. That decision paid off for both sides better than they could’ve hoped for. Miller became an All-Star as well as a premier trade target at the deadline. The A’s closer didn’t end up changing teams, but cemented his name as an elite reliever. Entering Friday, he already has 87 strikeouts in 53.2 innings, as well as a 2.52 ERA and 23 saves.
A Reunion in the Starting Rotation?
In July of this year, Bob Nightengale asked Mason Miller if he would be interested in returning to the rotation in the future. His answer peaked quite a bit of curiosity: “I don’t think I want to close that opportunity.” Miller went on to say, “if the opportunity presents itself, maybe, but with the success I’ve had, I think it’s a difficult decision to say I want to get away from that”. We’ve seen success this season of relievers transitioning into starters, with the best examples being SP Reynaldo Lopez and SP Garrett Crochet putting together All-Star seasons, as well others making the transition and struggling, such as RP A.J. Puk this season, and RP Michael Kopech last season. Puk and Kopech have both return to the bullpen and improved as a result.
Spencer Strider Breakout Comparison
Spencer Strider started in the bullpen in 2022 and was dominant, ultimately leading him into the rotation and having success. Going into the 2023 season, he was a full-time starter for the first time in his career and never looked back. Atlanta’s right hander finished 4th in Cy Young Voting that season, racking up an All-Star appearance, 20 wins, and 281 K’s in 186.2 innings. Strider, unfortunately, suffered a UCL injury of his own after just two starts this season.
It’s obviously not fair to Miller to compare a potential return to the rotation to what Strider’s breakout season was, but both being power pitchers with fastballs that can run it up to over 100 mph for multiple innings, it’s such a rare archetype that makes it difficult to compare to anyone else.
The best stat to compare their fastball’s to is the Stuff+ metric from Strider’s ‘23 season and Miller this season. Stuff+ rates the characteristics of a pitch regardless of results, where 100 is average and higher numbers are better. Mason Miller’s fastball this season has a Stuff+ rating of 139, compared to Strider’s last season having a rating of 141. What’s even more intriguing is how Mason Miller’s slider compares very favorably to Strider’s. Miller has a grade of 161 next to Strider’s 103 rating. What makes the Braves right hander’s slider so good is how it plays off his fastball, because of this it limited opponents to a .154 batting average. Meanwhile, Mason Miller’s slider is limiting hitters to a .145 batting average.
Will Mason Miller Return to the Rotation?
With the Athletics eventual move to Las Vegas looming while still struggling to put together a competitive team, seeing Miller shine in the closer role is one of the few bright spots on the roster. Knowing that eventually the best decision may be to trade their star closer, it would make sense for the team to keep him in the bullpen for the future and ensure his value stays high. Mason seemed to be enjoying the success as well, based on his recent comments. While all signs are pointing to the All-Star staying in the bullpen, it’s intriguing to see what could be if Mason Miller and the Athletics decide to give him another shot in the starting rotation.
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