Rafael Devers cratered at the plate in August. The Red Sox struggles coincided with his. The playoffs are becoming less likely every day.
3B Rafael Devers is not the only member of the franchise to blame for the Boston Red Sox melting like an ice cream cone in the August heat. However, as the best player on the team, his drop off has been the most pronounced. He has been battling shoulder issues all season, and the issue appears to have been too much in the last month. Speaking of injuries, the sorely needed pitchers from the trade deadline have availed themselves well in their limited time in Boston. I wish some of the other pitchers were hurt too. That would give them an excuse for having the team ERA rise every month this season.
The struggles have resulted in the Sox having a record at or below .500 for the first time since June. They hit 70-70 on September 4 and are now 72-71. “Hit” may not be the right term because the Sox have not done much of that lately. Anyways, here are some thoughts on how the Sox went from hunting the wildcard to hunting for last place. After Sunday’s loss, the Sox chances of making the playoffs have dwindled down to 6.7%.
Hitting Disappearance
Boston pitching gets worse every month. I will elaborate later on the short-lived “Bailey Effect,” which is no longer a positive thing. However, these woes were able to be covered by the monstrous offensive numbers the Sox were posting. Unfortunately, the Sox offense of the early part of the season is nowhere to be seen. Remember the roller coaster I mentioned earlier in the season? Everyone climbed aboard and is heading downhill now.
Devers’ performance is the most concerning, and debates of shutting him down if the poor play continues from the team are gaining traction. He’s hitting .212 with a .669 OPS and a 24.2% strikeout rate since August 1. This comes after Devers hit .320 with a 1.022 OPS from April 24 to July 31. On a team with as little depth as the Sox, the loss of your biggest threat is catastrophic.
Devers’ woes reflect the entire team’s struggles. In the same time frame Devers thrived, from April 24 to July 31, the Sox thrived. The Sox led MLB in average (.268), hits (787), and doubles with 183. They were second in OPS (.781), sixth in runs (419), and a surprising seventh in stolen bases (79). Since August 1, those numbers are down to 14th in average (.245), 14th in hits, and 11th in doubles. Boston’s ranks 16th in OPS at .716, 15th in runs, and 13th in steals. 1B Triston Casas came back on August 16 so I do not think the Ewing Theory is in play. Instead, it seems likely many regressions to average play have occurred across the roster.
As Bad as 50 Cent’s First Pitch
I still stand by 50 Cent’s first pitch as the worst all time, even though it is from 2014. With that in mind, Boston pitching being in the same sentence is a major problem. The Sox team ERA by month is all the evidence needed to go Chicken Little on the Sox hopes of the playoffs.
March/April: ERA of 2.62, First in MLB
May: 4.12, Eighteenth in MLB
June: 4.33, Twenty-first in MLB
July: 4.91, Twenty-third in MLB
August: 4.95, Twenty-fifth in MLB
September (As of 9/7): 5.22. Twenty-fourth in MLB
New pitching coach Andrew Bailey did seem to be onto something early in the season. By drastically reducing the number of four-seam fastballs the team threw, they had the best month of any staff in baseball. Based on the monthly changes above, it’s clear that strategy is no longer working. If batters aren’t challenged with velocity, they can sit on breaking balls and feast. Also, how many pitchers have been hurt at some point this season? SP Lucas Giolito and SP Garrett Whitlock are lost for the season. The three deadline acquisitions of SP James Paxton, RP Lucas Sims, and RP Luis Garcia have all gone on the IL. RP Justin Slaten missed extended time.
Needless to say, the attendance of Sox pitchers this season has been worse than that of classes on Zoom in April of 2020. Bill Simmons always says for athletes, “the best ability is availability,” which the staff has not had. It does not help that SPs Tanner Houck and Kutter Crawford quickly exceeded their career highs in innings this year. Neither has been able to hold up to the level they started the season at.
Little League Fielding
Actually, I apologize for this headline. After watching the Little League World Series, it is an insult to those incredible young athletes to call the Sox fielding this year “Little League caliber”. The outfield has held its own, but the infield has more holes than a prairie dog town. The one infielder I will cut some slack is SS Ceddanne Rafaela. He is a world class center fielder who plays shortstop for the good of the team. He’s a rookie playing arguably the two toughest positions in baseball, so if he struggles with one, he deserves a forgiving curve. Either way, leading the league in errors is unforgivable.
The errors have been blatantly ignored by the franchise every year since winning the W0rld Series in 2018. Here are their annual rankings from 2019 to 2023: twenty-first most, third, second, fourteenth, and second. Is this the year they break through and lead the league?
A Reason for Hope
I always try to save the best for last. The best news is the Sox’s fate is in their own hands. By that I mean their fate to finish in last in the AL East. Their last two series are versus the two teams currently behind them, the Tampa Bay Rays and the Toronto Blue Jays. As for the wild card spot, they missed their best chance to solidify a spot. The Kansas City Royals endured a seven-game losing streak, but the Sox gained no ground. Instead, the Minnesota Twins took advantage.
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