The Twins are huffing and puffing their way to a .500 record, hoping that will be enough to win a dreadful AL Central.
The Minnesota Twins are the best team in the AL Central. In 2023, that statement doesn’t amount to much more than a backhanded compliment. With two straight wins, the Twins have inched back above .500 for the first time since June 25. With the Cleveland Guardians the only rival within striking distance, playing .500 ball might be enough to reach the playoffs. The Twins, for all of their frustrating play, are in a good position in early July.
Whether the Twins are playing to expectations or not depends on what you thought preseason. After a disappointing second half last year, I expected another season of hovering around the division race but ultimately falling short. That may still happen, but since Cleveland and the Chicago White Sox are much worse than 2022, the Twins are clear favorites at this point.
To get to the finish line, the Twins will need to find some more offense. Unfortunately for them, this is a weak trade market for hitters, so some of the help will need to be internal improvements. Minnesota does have a Pythagorean record four wins better than their actual record, so maybe some positive regression is on the way.
Shutdown Pitching
The Twins have managed to play as well as they have because their pitching staff is excellent. They have the lowest team ERA in the Majors at 3.59 and have also given up the fewest runs. What’s more, the split is pretty even between starters and relievers; they do not have someone carrying the team on their back.
The closest would be SP Sonny Gray, so is in the Cy Young mix with a 2.50 ERA, which would easily be a career best. Not far behind him is the underrated SP Joe Ryan and SP Bailey Ober, who have claimed full-time rotation spots for themselves. The Twins have been hit hard by injuries with SP Tyler Mahle out for the season and SP Kenta Maeda only recently returning, so the depth coming through has been crucial.
The Twins also have the second-most strikeouts in baseball, which is a credit to their varied deliveries. The rotation wracks up more than their fair share, with the most of any starting five. Ryan, Gray, Ober, Maeda and SP Pablo Lopez all have K-rates above the MLB average. The bullpen has lights-out stuff of their own, led by the fascinating CP Jhoan Duran. Beyond throwing at 103 MPH, Duran has the most unique pitch in baseball. The “splinker” moves like a splitter but averages a cool 98 MPH. Oh, he also throws a high-spin curveball at 87 MPH. No wonder Duran has a 1.93 ERA with a K-rate of 33%.
Lifeless Offense
The lineup does the same thing as the pitching staff, which is not a good thing. Not only do Twins hitters strike out the most in baseball, they are on pace to set a single-season record for strikeouts. The Twins need to improve on an OPS that only ranks 20th in MLB, but the real concern is getting runners in scoring position. As a team, the Twins have an OPS of .800 with RISP, but that numbers drops to .704 with no one on, and it plummets further to .637 if there is only a runner on first base. This team has many interesting power hitters, but they desperately need some more players with quality bat-to-ball skills.
Part of the problem is simple underperformance. Superstar SS Carlos Correa has an OPS+ of just 93, and that is increasing due to a hitting streak. The story is similar for power-hitting OF Max Kepler. C Christian Vazquez has slumped to a .567 OPS in the first year of his contract. 3B Jose Miranda has not built on a promising rookie season and even got demoted earlier this year. This position player group is t0o talented to keep struggling to this extent. Three-true-outcomes hitters OF Joey Gallo and rookie 2B Edouard Julien are having very encouraging seasons, but they cannot carry the lineup.
The Twins are also suffering a number of injuries on the hitting side. Former number-one pick UTIL Royce Lewis has been great when he plays, but he is hurt again after already tearing his ACL twice. DH Byron Buxton has not played the field at all this season due to concern he will get hurt again. 2B Jorge Polanco is currently on the IL, and the role players are doing all they can to fill the voids. Trading for a hitter is a must, and there aren’t many options out there.
The Support of the Organization
More important than success on the field is the wellbeing of a person. RP Jorge Lopez has had a tough go of it since joining the Twins last season. Beyond an ERA of 4.80 in that time, Lopez has had mental health problems, as well. He returned this week from the IL after getting the help he needs. He has said that he struggled to regroup mentally after bad games.
Lopez thanks the Twins for their support while he works on himself. “I got off the line a little bit. I recognized that. Good thing I got some help, and like I said, I really appreciate what the team’s been doing, what the staff’s been doing. I couldn’t be more thankful for it. They just want me to be there and be good. That’s all I want to do, and that’s what I’m trying to pay back to them.”
An All-Star last season with the Baltimore Orioles, fans have rallied around Lopez for years since his son has been in and out of the hospital since birth. No active player embodies the value of perseverance more than Jorge Lopez, and the Twins deserve credit for respecting when someone needs time off. Hopefully he is in a better spot now and can rediscover his elite form.
Featured Articles
Featured Writers
