The draft will be even more unpredictable than usual since teams likely have different opinions about the same group of players.
The 2024 MLB Draft begins tonight as the most consequential part of All-Star Game festivities. Every draft is exciting, but this year’s class is a bit weaker than most. We have been spoiled in recent years with a historically great 2019 draft and a bumper crop of top high school talents in 2022 and 2023. The lack of high-end teenage prospects is the main reason this class leaves scouts wanting for more. There are also few college pitchers worthy of being a first-round pick, though the depth of this draft will be pitchers. Expect to see the commissioner announce the names of many college position players in the first 20 picks.
The Cleveland Guardians and Cincinnati Reds have the first two picks after being big winners at the lottery.
Unlike in other sports leagues, MLB teams are not allowed to trade draft picks. This means every team focuses strongly on the draft and there are fewer possible strategies, since no one can just trade away all their picks for other assets.
The only tradable picks are in the competitive balance rounds, which are after the first round and the second. Smaller-market franchises receive these extra picks to compensate for lower revenues. Just yesterday, the Washington Nationals acquired the 39th pick as part of the return for RP Hunter Harvey.
College hitters will run the first round, and that is especially true at the very top. There is no clear best player this year, so the Guardians are deciding between four at the moment. To add to the intrigue, none of them are true shortstops, so any drafting team will be betting that they hit at a high level. Cleveland also tends to draft hit-over-power high schoolers early, so they have no choice but to take a different type of player.
The Top Players
The most likely name is Georgia 3B Charlie Condon. His power is comfortably plus, and he has a good feel to hit, so scouts are fairly confident he will succeed at the next level. The risk comes on defense, as there is a real chance he only plays first base as a pro, meaning he really needs to hit to be a valuable player. If the Guardians pass on him, it is hard to imagine that the Reds will as well, since they prioritize power.
Oregon State 2B Travis Bazzana is a safer pick but perhaps has a lower ceiling, if only by a little bit. The Australian looks like the next great super-utility man, which is very attractive to front offices. Every team would be interested but there is no perfect fit either.
The preseason favorite was West Virginia SS J.J. Wetherholt, but he missed half the NCAA season with an injury. This would not come with significant savings, but the Guardians could save a little by taking Wetherholt and betting his sophomore campaign is closer to his true talent. Like Bazzana, there is no obvious fit in the top five.
The most surprising but still realistic option would be Florida 1B Jac Caglianone. The biggest name in the draft was a two-way star in college, but he will likely only hit as a pro. Much like Condon, a team must be confident he will hit to profile at the cold corner.
Interestingly, the two top pitchers are very different from each other. Wake Forest SP Chase Burns has electric stuff but relief risk, while Arkansas SP Hagen Smith has excellent control and a good fastball, but not a great one.
The Mess in the Middle
There seems to be a sizable drop off in talent around the 11th pick, so the draft can go in many different directions at that point. In his final rankings, Kiley McDaniel of ESPN has players 15 through 45 in the same tier, which is a much wider range than most years. This means front offices could–and probably do–have very different boards than each other.
Every year we see some teams go under slot with their first-round pick, and there are reasons to think we could see a higher or lower number of deals than usual. On one hand, if the talent level is flat in the middle of the round, teams might as well take someone who demands less money to sign. On the other hand, since the talent in the second round is weaker than most years, there is no real benefit to saving money for later picks.
Teams with more picks on the first night are generally more likely to spread their bonus pool around, but that might not be the case this year. The Milwaukee Brewers lead the way with four picks on Day 1. They also prefer contact players up the middle and power pitchers, both of which are lacking in this class. Last year’s draft ended up being somewhat chalky, but that does not seem possible this time around.
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