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When Losing Means Winning: Seed Anaylsis

The Philadelphia 76ers lost a close, well-fought battle against the Milwaukee Bucks last night. That drops them to fourth seed in the East, which in most situations isn’t ideal. With how the East is shaping up this year though, this might be one of the best places for the Sixers to be, and losing against the Bucks might be a blessing in disguise. The East is very tight this year, and there aren’t many games left. Things can fall a lot of different ways, and that will have massive effects on seeding and therefore playoff matchups.

 

The Elephant in the Room

Nick Schwartz/USA TODAY

The team that is really making a mess of the seeding are the Brooklyn Nets. With the COVID restrictions lifted, Kyrie Irving will be able to play, and combined with Kevin Durant they will be an incredibly tough out. Both of those guys are top ten scorers in the NBA right now, and if both play they will be incredibly hard to beat. They had a horrible run of form when KD was hurt and Irving couldn’t play that left them in his weird situation where they are in the play-in, but everyone knows if they had this team all year they would be a top four seed near guaranteed. With only six games left on their schedule, catching Toronto or Chicago to get out of the play-in will be near impossible without an epic collapse from one of those two teams. The Bulls do have a very tough schedule to end things, as they only face playoff (or play-in) teams the rest of the way, but they are four games up on Brooklyn. The Raptors are 3.5 games up, but have a few easier games ahead of them that should keep them fairly safe. That leaves the Nets as the seventh seed, who face the two seed in the first round. That means it’s imperative to avoid the two seed.

 

A Necessary Loss

Losing to the Milwaukee Bucks put the Sixers one game behind them, with the Bucks taking the two seed and the 76ers dropping to fourth. As things stand, the 76ers would face the Chicago Bulls, who after a roaring start have cooled off completely. With the way they’ve been playing, they are probably the second weakest team in the top eight, beating out only the Cleveland Cavaliers who have been ravaged by injury. That makes them an ideal first round matchup for the Sixers, meaning the loss to the Bucks that put them in the fourth seed was actually beneficial.

 

Results May Vary

Chicago Bulls vs Philadelphia 76ers.

Associated Press

That is of course, only if results hold, which they probably won’t. As mentioned, the Bulls remaining schedule is brutal, and they are only ahead of the Raptors by one game. The Bulls will almost certainly finish behind Toronto then. That means it’s actually the third seed that becomes the most valuable, that or the first seed. The Sixers are 1.5 games behind the Heat for the 1st seed, but do have the easiest remaining schedule of the top four. The Sixers face Detroit twice in their final seven games and they face the Indiana Pacers twice as well. Those two teams are bottom-five in the NBA. Rounding out the schedule are games against Charlotte, Toronto and Cleveland, the bottom half of the East Playoffs. The Bucks probably have the toughest schedule, facing the Nets, the Clippers (who just got Paul George back), the Mavericks, and the Celtics in their remaining seven games. Also notable are the fact that the Heat (the current one seed) and the Celtics (arguably the hottest team in the NBA) face each other once in their remaining games. 

With their schedule, the Sixers could make a run for the one seed if they win out. That’s not impossible, but it’s not really likely either. Two of those games are on back-to-backs, and Joel Embiid and James Harden probably won’t play in those. In addition, besides their next game against the Celtics, the Heat schedule isn’t too bad, and even if they lose to the Celtics, winning out would still make them the one seed. That means the Sixers currently sitting in fourth is pretty much an ideal spot. It gives them a wider range of possible outcomes, and makes the third seed very gettable. If they had won this game against the Bucks and been the second seed, with the remaining schedules it would have been quite difficult to fall from the second seed, and their only path to avoiding the Nets would be shooting for first. 

 

Does It Matter?

They say to be the best you have to be beat the best, so why does this matter? Well, while the Sixers are very capable of beating any team, and they shouldn’t fear the Nets per se, there’s also no reason to make their potential run to the Finals any harder than it has to be. The goal of the season isn’t to beat the Nets or any one specific team, it’s to win a championship, and an easier route to the finals helps that. Instead of a grueling seven game series with the Nets, where Embiid and Harden could get hurt playing the heavy minutes it would take to beat them, they might have a much easier five game series or something against the Cavaliers or Bulls. That leaves them fresher against their second round opponent, especially if they slide into that third seed, as their opponent would likely be the Nets or whoever they end up playing, and who will have just gone through said grueling series. No one remembers the cakewalk of opponents that the LeBron James-led Cavaliers often ran through in the East when they made four straight Finals, and people don’t really talk about how short-handed the Golden State Warriors were when the Raptors took them out anymore. What people remember is the Championship, and that’s what the Sixers need to focus on.

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