
The Orioles have built up pitching depth but could still use a number one starter to lead the rotation in the playoffs.
Despite what some outside observers think, the Baltimore Orioles have not had a quiet offseason. They have made a number of moves to improve the bottom of the roster and replace some lost production. The Orioles signed OF Tyler O’Neill to replace OF Anthony Santander and C Gary Sanchez to take C James McCann’s role. GM Mike Elias prioritized rotation depth by signing SPs Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano. This week he bought low on OF Dylan Carlson to add positional versality. But those observers are right he hasn’t found a #1 starter to make up for SP Corbin Burnes leaving town.
The Orioles still need an ace, and the top free agents have already signed elsewhere. SP Jack Flaherty is the best available, and a reunion in Baltimore would not go over well with the fanbase. So that leaves the trade market, where there might be a few possibilities but no certainties. Fortunately, the Orioles are well positioned to take advantage of a team dealing with financial constraints. Let’s go over who the O’s can target and what they would cost.
Pay Up for Cease
The most appealing option would also require the highest trade return. Elias should be on the phone with PBO AJ Preller every day to pull off a trade for SP Dylan Cease. The San Diego Padres are trying to walk the tightrope of competing while cutting payroll. They succeeded last year, but that included signing OF Jurickson Profar for just $1 million, and I doubt they have another trick up their sleeve like that. Cease is clearly their best trade chip since he has a notable salary, one year of team control, and high surplus value.
Cease will make around $14 million in 2025, which is a little less than what the Orioles paid Burnes last season. In his first (and perhaps only) season in SoCal, Cease pitched to a 3.47 ERA in a career-high 189.1 innings. The results were between his stellar 2022 season and mediocre 2023 campaign, while his 3.10 FIP matched his 2022 total. With a 29.4% strikeout rate and 8.5% walk rate, the Padres couldn’t have asked for anything more. He finished fourth in Cy Young voting, but the Los Angeles Dodgers knocked him around in the NLDS.
The Orioles need a playoff starter, and five bad innings won’t change the fact that Cease would start Game 1 in orange. Given the similarities to Burnes, the trade package would also look similar, especially since the Padres want to compete like the Milwaukee Brewers did. San Diego needs pitching help and a corner outfielder. Here is my proposal:
Orioles receive: Dylan Cease
Padres receive: OF Heston Kjerstad, SP Cade Povich, SP Luis De Leon
Take on a Contract
When a team needs a starting pitcher, front offices turn to the Seattle Mariners. The M’s have a lopsided roster featuring a great rotation but a thin lineup, so two teams dealing from different strengths makes sense. The Orioles happen to have appealing position players, including some contact hitters that would limit the whiffs.
Baltimore should be calling about SP Luis Castillo, who is currently playing on an extension with three years left plus a vesting option. Castillo will be earning over $24 million per season, which is now a below-market rate for a good starter but still a high salary for a team like the Mariners.
Castillo is coming off a solid season but not a spectacular one, considering his pitcher-friendly home stadium. His 3.64 ERA is strong, but that equates to just a 101 ERA+. His numbers have declined since joining the Mariners, as he posted a 3.17 ERA down the stretch in 2022 and then a 3.34 in 2023. In 2024, his strikeout rate dropped to 24.3% while his walk rate improved to 6.5%. More concerningly his secondary stuff has diminished. According to the model Stuff+, his slider dropped from above average to well below last year, and the same happened to his changeup the year before. I think the Mariners should proactively trade him before it all goes away.
Why then, should the Orioles trade for someone past his prime? A lesser version of Castillo is still good, and there simply aren’t enough good starters pitchers around the league. He will still be reliable for the foreseeable future, which is what front offices care most about when making a trade.
Orioles receive: Luis Castillo
Mariners receive: SP Dean Kremer, SS Jorge Mateo, OF Enrique Bradfield
Other Ideas
There are a couple other options that the Orioles could pursue, but they would bring less upside to Camden Yards. SP Pablo Lopez is also playing under an extension he signed with a team that traded for him, but he has never been as good as Castillo. Lopez was also roughly average in 2024 with a 4.08 ERA, and his strikeout rate dropped from 29.2% to 25.6%. The Minnesota Twins will be paying him $21.75 million for each of the next three seasons, so at least he is a little cheaper than Castillo.
The more interesting path would be to trade for a different Padres starter, as SP Michael King also has just one year of team control left. He will make around $7 million in 2025 because he has only been a starter for one season, so his arbitration figures have been lowered by years in relief. King was part of what made the last OF Juan Soto trade worthwhile for San Diego. He pitched to a sparkling 2.95 ERA with a 27.7% strikeout rate. His 173 innings soared past his previous career high, so workload could be a concern this year.
