David Robertson has been one of the most reliable relievers for years, so why is he still on the free agent market?
RP David Robertson should be pitching for a team in Spring Training by now. But instead, he is likely sitting at home or training on his own while waiting for a GM to call him. And I do mean him, since Robertson is one of the few professional athletes who represents himself.
That is the first clue as to why a good, reliable reliever is still a free agent instead of locked into a bullpen. Robertson is probably waiting for a deal he likes, and no agent is pressuring him to sign or else they miss out on their percentage.
Even if Robertson is content to take his time, Opening Day is just a few weeks away, and every team could use another relief pitcher. There’s a reason why dozens sign every offseason, and a pile change teams before the trade deadline. Every single manager in history wants one more guy to get three outs so he doesn’t have to give the ball to someone less likely to accomplish that task.
I bring this dynamic up because David Robertson has been great at getting outs for almost all of his lengthy career. He no longer fits as a closer but can still hold down the fort as a setup man, and all 30 MLB teams can stand to upgrade their bridges to the ninth inning man.
So, there must be some reason why someone of Robertson’s caliber is languishing on the market. Let’s find out why.
Theory 1: The Results Aren’t There
The first thing to check is whether Robertson pitched well last year. His reputation is that of a shutdown guy, but maybe that isn’t true anymore. Except, it totally is. He posted a 3.00 ERA and 1.7 WAR in 2024, both second on the Texas Rangers, and his 72 innings led their bullpen. Robertson’s 2.65 FIP was his lowest since 2018, boosted by a 33% strikeout rate, his highest since 2017. It’s clear he can still get outs, so let’s move on.
Theory 2: Old Guys Don’t Get Paid
Robertson will turn 40 years old next month, so maybe front offices are hesitant to pay up for someone who remembers the Reagan administration. But other older players have signed solid contracts this offseason. SP Justin Verlander is now 42, coming off a terrible season, and he will earn $15 million. SP Max Scherzer is 40 and signed for $15.5 million following an injury-shortened year. 41-year-old SP Charlie Morton doesn’t have the same upside but still earned $15 million.
Those guys are all starters, but the story is similar for relievers. RP Kenley Jansen is 37 and slowly declining, but he will receive $10 million. Jansen is the same age as RP Kirby Yates, who signed for $13 million. RP Chris Martin took a hometown discount for $5.5 million at age 38. We’re not talking about bargain bin pitchers here, as they all have ample high-leverage experience.
It is clear Robertson should earn eight figures and deserves a raise over the $11.5 million he made last year. That said, other old guys SP Lance Lynn and SP Kyle Gibson are also still free agents, and SP Jose Quintana signed this week for just $4.25 million. There must be something else going on.
Theory 3: Stuff is Down
Hitters couldn’t do much of anything off Robertson last season, but maybe teams don’t expect that to continue. For that, we must check how Robertson’s velocity and movement have held up in recent years.
As it stands, Robertson has actually maintained or increased his velocity. The cutter is his most frequently used pitch, and its 93.3 MPH was identical in 2023 and 2024. His sinker and changeup were both harder, but he only threw each of those 1% of the time. The velocity on his slider and knuckle curve both dropped, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing. More separation from fastballs can throw off a hitter’s timing, but perhaps teams fear a greater drop leading to too much separation.
In regard to movement, the cutter is still one of the best in baseball. In 2024, it had an additional 6.7 inches of vertical drop, which is elite. His slider and curveball are both above average as well, at an additional 2.8 and 2.7 inches, respectively. The curveball regressed an inch compared to 2023, but the slider and cutter both improved relative to similar pitches. The slider also has outstanding horizontal movement over the same time frame.
The two prominent publicly available pitching models, PitchingBot and Stuff+, paint a less encouraging picture. PitchingBot rates pitches on the 20-80 scale where 50 is average, and it thinks Robertson declined a bit. The system says his three main pitches all waned in quality from ’23 to ’24, dropping his overall stuff from 61 to 55.
Stuff+ uses to same scale as OPS+, where 100 is average. It thinks the cutter and slider slightly improved, but the curveball dropped 11 points, so the overall stuff grade improved one point. Robertson can still pitch, but front offices can look at this data and think he will soon no longer have MLB-quality pitches.
Theory 4: Lifestyle Intangibles
This brings us back to the original point. Sometimes free agents linger due to player-driven reasons unclear to fans. As his own agent, Robertson does not pressure himself to sign, and at such an advanced age, he might be ready to retire unless the right deal comes along. Perhaps he has only a few appealing destinations in mind due to family or proximity, and the teams in those cities aren’t reaching out.
My guess is that we have a mix of theories three and four. I bet front offices are genuinely worried that a more pronounced decline in stuff is on its way, so they don’t want to offer him the $12 million+ he deserves. On the other end, Robertson very well could be content with his career unless that offer is on the table, so he won’t sign for just $5 million or so. If that is the case, then hopefully someone improves their offer, because David Robertson is still good enough to pitch in the Majors.
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