Evan Mobley and the Danger of “Potential”

(AP Photo/Phil Long)

Potential is a dangerous word. It’s great, for a while. The sky’s the limit, but you never want to be the guy with “potential” for too long. Evan Mobley might be nearing that mark. For a guy who was so lauded, who started out his career so well, Mobley seems in danger of plateauing. Hopefully, by the end of this year, questioning Mobley will be seen as laughable. Hopefully.

 

Baby Steps?

Evan Mobley did get better in year two, that much is clear. But it wasn’t the massive jump many had hoped. Getting more shots up when adding a guy like Donovan Mitchell was not feasible, and at least he didn’t seem to regress ala Scottie Barnes, but he still didn’t show much more. He became slightly more efficient but didn’t show a major development of skills. He didn’t shoot from any real distance better. The playmaking was marginally improved, the handle likewise, but it wasn’t enough to be called a strength. 

A similar size increase this year wouldn’t be ideal. That rate of improvement is too slow to hope for Evan Mobley to hit that much-discussed potential. Guys like Kevin Garnett (who is often viewed as Mobley’s ceiling) or Anthony Davis (who Tristan Thompson likened him to at Cavaliers media day) both took major scoring leaps in year two. Bam Adebayo, a similarly defensive first player, took a leap in year three and another in year four. Rudy Gobert did see his scoring rise most in year four, but his offensive ceiling was limited to begin with, and Mobley is supposed to develop into a far superior offensive player.

Garnett and Davis had the benefit of teams being built around them as the centerpiece, of course, but they showed offensive strengths in real time, not just offensive potential. Mobley hasn’t yet. He still has time, but if he looks nearly identical at the end of year three as he did in year two, serious concerns need to be raised.

 

Pass First

From the comments made at media day, it doesn’t look like Mobley is going to be called on to score more. Coach J.B. Bickerstaff was clear that they want Mobley more involved but threw in plenty of qualifiers to caution that being more involved doesn’t mean more scoring. It sounds like they want to use him in the half-court more or less the same, parking him at the elbow and quickly deciding to shoot or pass.

The one area where we could see marked improvement is in transition. Mobley mentioned that one of the things he’s been working on most (along with shooting) is bringing the ball up the court after defensive rebounds. They want to turn Mobley into more of a facilitator than a pure scorer. That’s fine, the Denver Nuggets just won with a facilitating center, and their opponent, the Miami Heat, also had a skilled passing big in Adebayo. It makes sense in the context of the team. It’s easier said than done, though. 

 

Cultivating Mass

Besides shooting which is the most obvious scoring improvement, becoming a better post player could also help. It’s not like Davis or Garnett were snipers themselves. They were forced down low, though, which Mobley is not. Last season, he only posted up 1.8 times per game (tied for 33rd in the league). On those post-ups, he averaged just .78 points per possession. That puts him well in the bottom half of qualifying players, according to tracking data from NBA.com.

Becoming stronger would help with that, which was another major goal for him this offseason. It’s working… slowly. He’s said himself he’s put on seven pounds of muscle, going up to about 222. That’s still far lighter than most of his contemporaries or the guys he’s compared to (Davis is 253, Garnett was 240, Bam is also around 250). The installation of a comprehensive home gym and a personal nutritionist this season is a nice step. He isn’t a stick anymore like Chet Holmgren and Victor Wenbanyama, but he’s no Hercules either. Mobley is just 22, and natural and healthy strength and weight gain should take time, but again, you’d hope to see real results in year three. If not, there’s a question if his frame can support the extra bulk he should ideally put on. 

 

 Signs of Encouragement

There are still a lot of ways Mobley can improve. That’s a good thing, it means his ceiling is high. The question is, will he? Very few players become significantly better at shooting. Brook Lopez is the exception, not the rule. Not too many players put on significant muscle late in their careers. Giannis Antetokounmpo is a wonder. Developing an effective post-game is rare. Physical specimens like Dwight Howard are said to have never really done it. Players of his height are rarely expert passers and ball handlers, which is what makes Jokic so special. Mobley has the potential to gain all of those things and hit that Kevin Garnett top-20 player type of all-time ceiling. Right now, though, it’s still just potential.

What if Mobley stays where he is? Where does that put the Cavaliers? What is current Mobley, without the potential for all-time great status, worth? Is a max contract, once thought to be a foregone conclusion, really the right play for Mobley then? These are all questions the Cavaliers hope never need to be answered. Hope, though, like potential, only lasts for so long.

************************************

Patrick Yen is a contributor on Back Sports Page.  He has written for NBC, SB Nation, and a few more websites in his four-year sports journalism career. He has been the Back Sports Page beat writer for the Philadelphia 76ers and now the Cleveland Cavaliers. Patrick, a graduate of Ohio State University, was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania but moved to Columbus, Ohio, early in his life and has lived there ever since. You can find more of Patrick on Twitter @pyen117.