The Home Run Derby is very difficult to predict every year, with many powerful star hitters competing for the title.
Major League Baseball’s Home Run Derby (HRD) is Monday, July 10 in Seattle. Whether you are trying to beat the odds or win a pool with friends, the HRD is notoriously difficult to predict. This article will help you try to impress your friends and maybe make you some money.
First, the odds and the seeds are completely at different ends of the spectrum. According to The Score, Toronto Blue Jays 1B Vladimir Guerrero, Jr. is the odds-on favorite at +300 (bet $100 to win $300). However, the #1 seed is Chicago White Sox CF Luis Robert, Jr. with odds at +650, while Guerrero is the 6th seed. The difference between odds and seeds is because the seeds were determined by the number of home runs each player has hit in 2023, while the odds are predictions based on computer models and human intuition (oddsmakers).
The rest of the pack looks like the following:
- New York Mets 1b Pete Alonso, +330, 2 seed.
- Seattle Mariners OF Julio Rodriguez, +480, 7 seed.
- Texas Rangers OF Adolis Garcia, +725, 4 seed.
- Tampa Bay Rays OF Randy Arozarena, +800, 5 seed.
- Los Angeles Dodgers OF Mookie Betts, +900, 3 seed.
- Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman, +1400, 8 seed.
Let’s take a look round by round and make some predictions.
Luis Robert Jr. versus Adley Rutschman
Looking at current performance, Robert dominates Rutschman, with 25 home runs compared to 11. Things get worse for Rutschman from there. Robert has a barrel percentage (combination of launch angle and exit velocity) of 16%, a sweet spot percentage (optimal launch angle rate) of 37%, and a hard-hit rate (exit velocity over 95) at 41%.
These numbers compare to Rutschman’s 6.5% barrel rate, 38.5% sweet spot, and 36.5% hard-hit rate. Getting the launch angle rate at the same time as the exit velocity (barrels) is the key to hitting home runs.
Prediction: Robert
Pete Alonso versus Julio Rodriguez
Pete Alonso is a two-time champion which only puts him behind Hall of Famer OF Ken Griffey Jr. for most in Derby history. Rodriguez defeated Alonso in the Semifinals of last year’s competition when Rodriguez went on a spree late in the round with 31 home runs. Rodriguez will have the hometown advantage (see OF Bryce Harper’s 2018 win in Washington, D.C.), but the current numbers are pretty far off. Alonso has 25 home runs in 2023 compared to Rodriguez’s 13.
Alonso is a home run machine and is in the top 10% in max exit velocity with 113.7. The other advanced metrics show him with a 15% barrel, 34% sweet spot and 41% hard-hit rate. Rodriguez clocks in at 10% barrel, 32.5% sweet spot, and a 51% hard-hit rate. Clearly, Rodriguez hits the ball hard, further evidenced that he is in the top 7% of the league in exit velocity (92.7) and top 3% in max exit velocity at 115.5.
Unfortunately, Rodriguez doesn’t get the ball in the air often enough judging by his below MLB average sweet spot rate and his lower barrel. However, Rodriguez loves to be the spoiler.
Prediction: Rodriguez
Mookie Betts versus Vladimir Guerrero, Jr.
Though Guerrero has never won a title, he holds the round and overall single Derby home run records. We know he is a beast, but Betts is out slugging him in 2023, 23 home runs to 13. As one of the premier leadoff hitters in the league, most people don’t think of Betts as a home run hitter. His most in a season is 35 (2022), but he looks for sure to beat that this year.
Betts’s barrel is not so impressive at 12%, but he has an astounding sweet spot at 39%, and even more impressive hard-hit rate at 49%. He is in the top 9% in exit velocity. If Betts hits the ball hard, Guerrero absolutely crushes the ball with a 57% hard-hit rate (top 1%) and top 2% average exit velocity with 94.7 mph. But the 33% sweet spot and 13.5% barrel may show why the home runs are down this year.
Betts is out to prove something this year.
Prediction: Betts
Adolis Garcia versus Randy Arozarena
Arozarena is as a good of a clutch hitter as we have seen in the playoffs. Garcia has a slight edge in 2023 with 21 home runs to Arozarena’s 16.
Garcia is in the top 9% in hard-hit rate (50.8%) and top 9% in average exit velocity. His sweet spot at 36% is well above the league average and his barrel at 16% is one of the best in the Home Run Derby. All of Arozarena’s metrics are equally as good, though slightly under Garcia’s, with a 15.2% barrel, 34% sweet spot, and 50% hard-hit rate.
This round is almost too close to call, but at the end of the day, Arozarena is an OBP specialist.
Prediction: Garcia
Home Run Derby Semifinal: Luis Robert, Jr. versus Adolis Garcia
Robert’s and Garcia’s numbers are almost exactly the same except that Garcia’s hard-hit rate is higher. Robert has him by 4 home runs in 2023. Nobody from the White Sox has been competitive in the HRD since Hall of Fame 1B Frank Thomas won it in the 1990’s. Robert would love to bring home some love to White Sox fans in an underperforming year for the team.
Prediction: Robert
Home Run Derby Semifinal: Mookie Betts versus Julio Rodriguez
Betts’ numbers do not look promising for Rodriguez and both of these guys want this championship. However, Betts has been hitting dingers at a career-high rate. He has the momentum.
Prediction: Betts
Home Run Derby Final: Luis Robert, Jr. versus Mookie Betts
Betts has been in many more high-leverage situations than Robert and will likely stay very cool under the pressure. Robert’s hard-hit rate is concerning, in the low 40’s compared to Betts 49%. But Robert puts it together more often with a barrel of 16% compared to Betts 12.2. Robert only leads Betts by 2 home runs in 2023, 25-23. Regardless of the result, we are in for a very exciting night.
Prediction: Robert
