How the Cleveland Cavaliers Matchup in Round One

(AP Photo/John Raoux)

The Cleveland Cavaliers find themselves in a very similar place as last year, having again earned the fourth seed. They face the young Orlando Magic, someone they ostensibly chose to play against. That means there’s a bit of added pressure. Not only that, but this time, they come in as the experienced ones. That’s a lot of factors that could make a team nervous, and the Cavaliers weren’t the most composed team last time out. They know that, and guys like Max Strus and Georges Niang were brought in partially for their playoff experience. Strus said a big part of his job will be to keep the locker room mentally strong and even-keeled, and if anyone can do that, it’s him. Securing the mental edge will be a big part of the series, but so will the details of the matchup. 

 

Defense Wins Championships

This matchup should be a defensive battle, not unlike the Cavaliers matchup from last year. Defensively, both teams counter the other well. The Cavs ranked sixth in defensive rating, while the Magic ranked second. While the Cavs’ double bigs can have offensive issues, they are excellent in interior defense. With Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner living inside the three-point line (usually in the paint), that’s good news for the Cavaliers. The Cavs aren’t quite as good at defending the three, ranking 21st in opponent three-point percentage. It’s a good thing then, that the Magic take the least amount of three-pointers in the league. 

 

The Magic Side of Things

On the flip side, the Magic have found success on defense by slowing the pace and limiting opponent shot attempts. They are led from the front by Jalen Suggs, who has blossomed into one of the best guard defenders in the league. That could be problematic for the Cavaliers, who rely on two guards to generate most of the offense. The Magic love to slow the pace down and limit opponent offensive opportunities, ranking as a top defense in both opponent turnover percentage and in defensive rebounding. The Cavaliers aren’t an overwhelmingly strong offensive-rebounding team, and they can be loose with the ball, ranking 24th in turnover percentage.

Both teams are comfortable with the slower pace, and their strengths on defense are well-suited for their opponents’ strengths on offense. Scores under 100 may be common in this series. That being said, the Cavs did manage to drop over 120 points on the Magic in two of their four regular-season meetings. They also held each other under 100 once, which is rare in today’s NBA.

 

X-Factors

Beyond how the two teams generally matchup, there are a couple X-Factors that could really swing things.

 

DPOY?

The first X-Factor is Jonathan Isasc’s availability. Isaac is a savant defensively and adds an interesting wrinkle to their offense as well. He can space the floor decently well, which is incredibly important for his size and the Magic’s overall lack of shooting. Nothing compares to his defensive prowess, though. He has remarkable footwork and length and is a true 1-5 defender. His versatility doesn’t just extend to who he can guard but also how he can guard. He’s very good at the point-of-attack and as a help defender. What’s always limited Isaac is his health. He’s been incredibly fragile his whole career, and the Magic have treated him, for good reason, with kid gloves. 

To keep him available, Isaac only played 15.8 minutes per game this year. Because of that, Isaac was able to play 58 games this year, by far his most since 2018-2019. For their last regular season game, though, the Magic saw fit to start Isaac for the first time this season, and with his help, they dominated the Milwaukee Bucks. If The Minister of Defense is able to play starter-like minutes, the Magic will all of a sudden add a DPOY-level player that they didn’t really have. Not to draw too many conclusions from low sample sizes, but Isaac missed both games the Cavs won and scored over 120 against the Magic. On the other hand, he was present for both Magic wins and helped hold the Cavs to 94 points. 

 

Crash the Boards

Another major factor in this matchup could be rebounding. It’s what killed the Cavs last playoffs, and the Magic are also a physical, athletic team. They aren’t quite as good as the New York Knicks, but they aren’t slouches, either. The Magic are seventh in the NBA in offensive rebound rate. Meanwhile, the Cavaliers rank seventh in defensive rebound rate, which is up seven spots from last year when they got dominated on the boards. Mobley and especially Allen have looked more up for it this season, and hopefully, the added experience from last year will go a long way. 

 

No Freebies

The final X-Factor will be how the Cavaliers can limit free throws. The Magic love to attack the basket, and they are rewarded accordingly. They’re number one in free throws attempted and second in free throws per field goal attempted. Wagner and Banchero will go into the teeth of the defense, and even their secondary scorers, like Cole Anthony, prefer to score inside. Both Strus and J.B. Bickerstaff emphasized the importance of defending those guys without fouling. Allen and Mobley have to stay disciplined and, avoid foul trouble, and avoid giving up too many freebies. So far, the Cavs are bang average in giving up opponent free throws. Not a strength, but not really a weakness. 

 

Final Thoughts

Both teams defend the other very well. Low-scoring games are on the cards here, and it may come down to some of those aforementioned X-Factors. The Cavs have the advantage in playoff experience and star power, which are crucial this time a year. They are desperate to avenge last year’s embarrassment. Lock up the interior, including rebounds, and they should be fine. Mitchell said last year was “nasty,” and it was. But they have the opportunity to turn that bad experience into something beneficial as they gear up for this round-one matchup.

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Patrick Yen is a contributor on Back Sports Page.  He has written for NBC, SB Nation, and a few other websites during his four-year sports journalism career. He has been the Back Sports Page beat writer for the Philadelphia 76ers and now the Cleveland Cavaliers. Patrick, a graduate from the Ohio State University, was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania but moved to Columbus, Ohio early in his life and has lived there ever since. You can find more of Patrick on Twitter @pyen117.