The NL West has a clear favorite this season, while three other teams are fighting for wild card sports in a close race.
The NL West is one of the better divisions in 2024, though many of the teams are underperforming their own preseason expectations.
Los Angeles Dodgers, 56-41
Pleasant Surprise: RP Alex Vesia
Biggest Underperformer: 2B Gavin Lux
No, the Dodgers are not playing at a historically great pace, but that was an unrealistic expectation to begin with. This team is still really good and in a comfortable position in the NL West. DH Shohei Ohtani has been raking in his year without pitching, and SS Mookie Betts has adapted well to a tougher position. Plus, OF Teoscar Hernandez looks like one of the steals of the offseason and just won the Home Run Derby. On the downside, the Dodgers are getting very little from their outfield, which should be a priority at the deadline.
LA deals with pitching injuries every season, and 2024 is no exception. Their four best starters are all currently hurt, but the good news is that SP Clayton Kershaw will return soon to make his season debut. This team does not have as many big names in the bullpen as years past, but they still rank 4th in reliever ERA. With deep pockets and a strong farm system, the Dodgers are the team best position to pull off a blockbuster trade in the next two weeks. Andrew Friedman should be calling the White Sox.
Arizona Diamondbacks, 49-48
Pleasant surprise: RP Justin Martinez
Biggest underperformer: OF Corbin Carroll
The Diamondbacks are doing all they can to get through what has been a very uneven season to this point. They have won four of their last five to get back over .500, which puts them squarely in “buy” mode if they weren’t already. To get back to the postseason, they must address a number of weak spots. Their offseason acquisitions have been a mixed bag, as OF Randal Grichuk and DH Joc Pederson have made a nice platoon, but the more expensive options are flopping. Hitters are teeing off on SP Jordan Montgomery and his reduced velocity, while 3B Eugenio Suarez is close to losing his roster spot.
Arizona’s patchwork pitching staff was on full display last October, and the circumstances are similar this year. SP Brandon Pfaadt has taken a necessary step forward to make up for Montgomery struggling and SP Merrill Kelly only making four starts. SP Ryne Nelson is no one’s idea of a healthy #3 starter. The D-Backs will be shopping for a back-end starter to eat innings and could use another contact hitter.
San Diego Padres, 50-49
Pleasant surprise: OF Jurickson Profar
Biggest underperformer: 2B Xander Bogaerts
Like Arizona, the Padres are playing at a similar level as last year, but they are doing it in a different way. They dramatically underperformed their Pythagorean record in 2023 by losing many close games, but now they simply look like a .500 team. The offense is a bit above average, with Jurickson Profar pulling off one of the most unexpected turnarounds ever. On the mound, the Padres are more middle of the pack, as trade acquisitions SPs Dylan Cease and Michael King hold down the fort while SPs Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove are hurt. CP Robert Suarez throws 88% fastballs and still dominates hitters, but the bullpen overall is lacking in whiffs.
Unsurprisingly, this team is top heavy, which is a faulty way to build a roster, but it makes the deadline easier to navigate. Under the aggressive AJ Preller, San Diego is fully committed to winning in the present, and they already pulled off a shocking May trade for 1B Luis Arraez. The Padres don’t need any more stars, but they do need to beef up the bench and pitching depth. For once, Preller should be shopping in the bargain bin.
San Francisco Giants, 47-50
Pleasant surprise: OF Heliot Ramos
Biggest underperformer: SP Blake Snell
The Giants looked like a mediocre team coming into the season, and they have played like a mediocre team. Their splash offseason has been very hit or miss, but more miss. The conversion experiment with SP Jordan Hicks is working, which is crucial as the Giants infamously lack five starters at any given time. Meanwhile, 3B Matt Chapman has been solid, but DH Jorge Soler needs to be better than average to be valuable, and OF Jung Hoo Lee is out for the season. More concerningly, Blake Snell is getting shelled after signing late like Montgomery, though the Cy Young winner has pitched better since coming off the IL.
A number of rookies are picking up the slack, led by Heliot Ramos. He was once a top prospect who mostly fell off the radar but is suddenly the best hitter on team. He leads the Giants in home runs and OPS and made the monthly All-Star team and the official one. The Giants are only three games back in the wild card race and therefore should make a run at the playoffs. A stabilizing starter and middle infielder would help, but there aren’t many options.
Colorado Rockies, 34-63
Pleasant surprise: OF Brenton Doyle
Biggest underperformer: OF Nolan Jones
Sometimes prognosticators hit the bullseye, because the Rockies are one of the five worst teams, just as expected. There is a bigger gap between 4th and 5th in the NL West than 1st and 2nd, as the Rockies are 13 games back just of the Giants. The team that does not know how to develop pitching or hitting has a poor pitching staff and a weak lineup. Go figure. At least Colorado has a beautiful ballpark and a pretty color scheme.
That’s not to say all is hopeless, though. Brenton Doyle had a .593 OPS last season as a defensive wiz and speedster, but now his offensive numbers have shot up across the board, and so his OPS sits at .815. SS Ezequiel Tovar has also taken a step forward on offense, while under-the-radar additions SP Cal Quantrill and C Jacob Stallings are providing value. The Rockies don’t have many trade chips, but Quatrill is one of the more appealing starters available at a reasonable price. While the deadline won’t bring back many prospects, the Rockies were big winners at the draft this week.
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