This Has Been a Topsy Turvy MLB Season

The current MLB standings look way out of wack compared to preseason predictions, with lots of teams overperforming or underperforming.

Okay, MLB fans, I can hear your objections before this article even gets underway. “The Los Angeles Dodgers are playing as well as ever! The New York Yankees are doing just fine! What do you mean this season has been topsy turvy?!”

Yes, it’s true, the two most prominent franchises are in good spots to reach October, but very few other teams are playing the way most expected back in March. The Los Angeles Angels and Colorado Rockies are at the bottom of the standings, but the middle 26 MLB teams are all a jumbled mess. The Chicago White Sox, just two years removed from the worst season ever, have a winning record. The White Sox, Washington Nationals, and St. Louis Cardinals are supposed to be rebuilding but might buy at the trade deadline.

This is no longer the case, but as of a couple weeks ago, the AL West leader had a losing record, and the team in fifth in the NL Central had a winning record. Either way the power rankings are heavily lopsided toward the National League.

These aren’t mere observations. There is an easy way to measure how teams are faring relative to their Spring Training outlook, and that is with FanGraphs playoff odds. Surprising things happen every season, but this year is one of extremes. Let’s highlight a few teams.

What is Wrong with These Guys?

I don’t need to tell you that the New York Mets are a total mess. The team with the second largest payroll is currently last in the NL East. Their free agent signings haven’t worked so far, as 3B Bo Bichette and RP Devin Williams are both below replacement level. Trading away OF Brandon Nimmo sure seems like a mistake, and 2B Marcus Semien isn’t helping, either.

The Mets looked like one of the favorites preseason, with playoff odds of 79.5%. Their disastrous start has dropped them to 22.4%, easily the biggest slide in the league. That even includes a better run of late, as their odds were as low as 13.6% on May 25. Since then, the Mets are 7-4.

In the AL Central, most observers thought the Detroit Tigers were the only good team. The Cleveland Guardians added no one in the offseason, and the other three teams are simply less talented. Instead, the Tigers have suffered a ton of injuries, their offense is punchless, and the Guardians have raced out to a commanding lead behind internal promotions. The Tigers are 28th in runs per game at just 3.94.

On Opening Day, The Tigers sat at 59.9%, and that jumped to 77.2% three days later. The figure was still as high as 74% on May 2. But the Tigers have fallen off in the five weeks since then, as their odds are now just 22.3%. The nadir was May 30, when the odds dropped below 10%.

Take Them Seriously

It is passed time to respect the Tampa Bay Rays. In the always loaded AL East, the Rays looked like the clear worst team in March, albeit the best last-place team in the league. But the Rays are proving the doubters wrong, as they flipped the script and now have the best record in the AL. They continually get the most out of unheralded players, and this season is no exception. SP Nick Martinez is in the Cy Young conversation with a 2.29 ERA, while RP Bryan Baker has become one of the best closers in the league. The offense is less impressive than the pitching, but INF Ryan Vilade has an .800 OPS off the bench.

The Rays began the year with meager playoff odds of 29.5%, and now they are sitting pretty at 80.9%. They were, in fact, even prettier on May 21, as the odds were as high as 92.8%. The Rays had four more wins than the Yankees at the time, but now they are effectively tied.

In the NL, the Atlanta Braves playing well isn’t so surprising to some people (though it is to me). They entered the season with a solid lineup and strong odds of 78.5%. But Atlanta had a disastrous 2025 season, and their rotation seemed thin and fragile in March. Rather than falling apart, the depth starters stepped up, led by SP Bryce Elder and his 2.66 ERA.

Atlanta now has the best record in MLB at 45-21, and their Pythagorean record is identical. Their odds are a sparkling 99.4%, meaning it would take an incredible collapse to miss the playoffs.

Honorable Mentions

The three “rebuilding” MLB teams I noted in the opener are still unlikely to make the playoffs based on the odds, but their chances are much better. The Cardinals started in the best position of the three and are still the best, jumping from 9% to 39%. The Nationals and their amazing offense have creeped up from .8% to 4%. And the White Sox, in the weaker AL race, have spiked from 1.2% to 17.1%.