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The Dark Horse of the MVP Race: Luka Dončić

Dallas Mavericks vs Milwaukee Bucks Apr 3, 2022 Game - Scores, Stats & Highlights | NBA.com

(Photo Retrieved via NBA.com)

The Dallas Mavericks (49-30) stand at the 4th seed in the Western conference after their six-point victory over the Milwaukee Bucks, sitting just .5 behind the Golden State Warriors. Luka Dončić, who put up 32 points and 15 assists in the victory, has been incredible as of recent averaging 30.4 PPG, 9.0 TRB, and 8.1 AST on 48.4% and 40% splits in March. The Mavericks are 12-5 in the last 17 games he has played. 

Despite a rough start to the year, Dončić has willed both his team to their highest seed since 2011 and himself into the MVP conversation. 

As per Kia MVP Ladder and NBA.com, the standings for league MVP follow as such:

  1. Nikola Jokic 
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo 
  3. Joel Embiid 
  4. Jayson Tatum
  5. Devin Booker 
  6. Luka Dončić 

Dončić ranks sixth among the respective candidates, but he has as good of a case for league MVP as anyone. 

Outside of ludicrous statistical performances, one key factor separates Dončić (excluding Nikola Jokic) from the rest of the pack: he has no all-star teammates.

Jokic, who has carried the load for the Denver Nuggets in light of injuries to Jamal Murray and Kevin Porter Jr., stands as the current favorite. 

Statistically, Dončić and Jokic are very similar posting averages of 28-9-9 and 27-14-8 respectively. Looking purely at the numbers, it’s difficult to discern who has had the more impressive season. 

While they share numbers and roster talent, Luka has bested the Serbian in one category: wins. What Dončić has done with the Mavericks has been nothing short of incredible, and the advanced numbers further support this. 

He is currently first in assist percentage, second in usage percentage, and fourth in PIE (Player Impact Estimate). Outside of Joel Embiid and the Philadelphia 76ers, no team relies on a player more for generating offensive production. He also leads all candidates in assists and three-pointers made. 

Defensively, he ranks second in rating among point guards with a rating of 106.6. Only Chris Paul boasts a higher rating at 106.3. 

In addition to this, he boasts the best head-to-head record amongst the top-10 MVP candidates this year at 11-6. 

  • vs. Tatum: 2-0
  • vs. Morant: 2-0
  • vs. Antetoukounmpo: 1-0 
  • vs. Jokic: 2-1
  • vs. Embiid: 1-1
  • vs. DeRozan: 1-1
  • vs. Towns: 1-1
  • vs. Durant: 1-1
  • vs. Booker: 0-1

By every means of consideration, Luka Dončić has made a standout case for himself as the league MVP. He has consistently performed in the most pivotal games of the season and lifted a team with minimal star power to one of the best records in the league. 

It goes without saying that each of the candidates has had historic years to this point, but nobody has done more with less than the 23-year-old

The Mavericks will play three more games before closing out their season, all against teams below .500, presenting a strong opportunity to move up in the west. 

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