The Philadelphia 76ers will battle with the Toronto Raptors in the first round of the 2021-2022 playoffs and it won’t be easy. Despite the 76ers being an on-paper favorite, with MVP candidate Joel Embiid and one of the best players in NBA history in James Harden, you would be a fool to overlook the Raptors. Since Nick Nurse took over, the Raptors have been a real thorn in the side of the Sixers. The head-to-head since 2018 is 10-5 in favor of the Raptors, despite the 76ers being the favorite in a majority of those games. The four game series in 2021-2022 went the way of the Raptors as well, 3-1, and the Raptors won their last meeting which was just a week ago. They do a fantastic job of matching up against the Sixers, and of all the opponents they could’ve gotten in the first round, one could easily argue this was the worst one. That being said, the Sixers are the betting favorite, and if they do what they need to do they’ll take home the series. Here are three keys for the Philadelphia 76ers to take home a first round playoff win.
Key One: Don’t Settle
Eric Koreen/The Athletic
The Raptors under Nick Nurse are extremely smart. They want to take away your best weapons, and they’ll leave some stuff wide open to try and tempt you into taking suboptimal shots. Joel Embiid said it best, saying they will send three guys on him at the drop of the hat to take away his close up game. That forces Embiid away from the basket, and makes him too reliant on his jumper. He’s good at it, but any shots Embiid isn’t taking in the post is a win for the Raptors. They really don’t have anyone that can guard Embiid down low, with their tallest players three inches shorter than Embiid and their heaviest guys 40 pounds lighter. James Harden is able to get Embiid in the best spots he’s ever been in, and he needs to leverage that and go up strong immediately. Staying aggressive in the post will get whatever defenders they throw at him in foul trouble, and he can still score regardless.
Of course, when they do come flying in on triple and double teams, Embiid does need to make the right passes throughout the whole game. He will do so at the beginning of the game, but if his wide open teammates don’t hit their first shots or they start losing, he becomes less and less willing to pass. That’s when he starts hoisting more mid-range jumpers up, or starts trying to dribble and drive and then the turnovers start piling up. Hitting shots will be incredibly important then, which brings us to key No. 2.
Key Two: Hit Open Threes
Sam Navarro/USA TODAY Sports
Sounds obvious, but it’s more important against the Raptors than anyone else. Because of the Raptors’ defensive strategy of throwing as many bodies as they can at Embiid, that means they will leave plenty of people open on the perimeter. Making them pay for that focus on Embiid is imperative. Not only for overall scoring, but so Embiid keeps passing out of double and triple teams. That’s part of the reason why Matisse Thybulle’s absence might not be as big a deal as it might normally be, as Danny Green is a much better three-point shooter. Hitting those threes will also make it so they can’t swarm Embiid as much, and open things up for him and Harden.
Tobias Harris especially will be called upon to hit those threes. He’s moved into that fourth scorer role, and is taking a lot more catch-and-shoot triples than ever before. He’s shown the ability to be deadly from distance, shooting nearly 40% from three last year and having a few games where he went off from three this year. Unfortunately, there are quite a few games where the shooting isn’t quite as good, recently going ⅕ against Phoenix, 2/8 against Milwaukee and 0/5 against Cleveland. That can’t happen against the Raptors, or else they will choke Embiid and the rest of the Sixers out. Most importantly, Harris cannot get gun-shy. He will get noticeably timid if his first few threes don’t go down and will elect to pass out of open shots or put the ball on the ground. That’s not his role anymore, and he needs to trust his shot.
Key Three: Limit Their Flaws
Chris Young/The Canadian Press
One of the biggest reasons the Raptors are a horrible matchup for the Sixers? Their strengths matchup with the Sixers’ weaknesses almost exactly. The Raptors force the second most turnovers in the league, and they grab the second most offensive rebounds. The Sixers meanwhile, are 19th in defensive rebounding (29th in total rebounding), which given their 51-31 record is quite bad, and they are generally undersized outside of Embiid. They rank fourth in turnovers, but if you look at their most recent losses, they have double digit turnovers in basically every game. When they get careless, it spirals quickly and the Raptors are perfectly equipped to take advantage. The emergence of Paul Reed into the backup center spot should help the rebounding issue (he pulled down seven boards in 10 minutes against the Raptors last time out) but the turnovers are just about being careful, and again, not forcing anything.
Play Your Game
The Raptors are New England Patriots-esque in their plan to take away your strength and make others beat you. It’s a strategy that often works, as they swarm and frustrate Embiid and take him out of the game as much as possible. The Sixers need to keep playing their game, and letting Embiid exploit the mismatches he has with everyone on the team. When he does have to pass, they need to make the Raptors pay for overcommitting on Embiid, and the open shooters like Georges Niang, Tobias Harris, Tyrese Maxey and Danny Green need to hit their shots. Open corner threes are some of the most efficient shots in basketball, and they will be plentiful. If they can hit them, they’ll open things up for Embiid to dominate. If they don’t, Embiid will continue to get suffocated, take too many mid-range shots and turn the ball over too much.
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