Toronto Raptors Lightning Round Preview

Where Things Stood: While the Milwaukee Bucks were grabbing headlines on their way to the first seed in the Eastern Conference, the Toronto Raptors were quietly putting together one of the best sleeper stories in the NBA. Widely written off after the loss of Kawhi Leonard, the Raptors have stunningly improved their record without him. To say this is an anomaly would be an understatement: only one other team has ever lost a finals MVP and come close to maintaining their record the next season, let alone improving it.  

Teams Winning Percentage After Losing Former Finals MVPs in their Prime

How’d they do it? Depth. Instead of trying to find a replacement for one of the league’s best players, they invested in those already on the roster in order to collectively replace the 26.6 points per game Leonard put up last year. That’s paid major dividends, as the Raptors now look to be the deepest team in the Eastern Conference. Kyle Lowry, Pascal Siakam, and Fred VanVleet have all averaged over 5 more points per game than they did in the 2018-2019 season, and bench pieces such as Terrance Davis, Chris Boucher, and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson have all given the Raps quality minutes.  A special shoutout has to be given to Norman Powell, who’s put up 16.4 points per game seemingly out of nowhere (that number’s more than double his previous career high). With championship experience under their belts, the Raptors looked poised to make another under-the-radar attempt at a title.

What’s Coming Up: After seemingly all of their major players suffered from injuries over the course of the season, the Raptors finally have health on their side. The timing couldn’t be better for them, as the Raps will need all hands on deck to face the third toughest schedule in the bubble. Though they’re out of contention for the one seed, they’ll need to rack up several key wins in order to fend off the rising Boston Celtics. This is imperative for Toronto–if they drop to the three seed they’ll have to beat the three scariest teams in the East: Celtics, the Philadelphia 76ers, and the Milwaukee Bucks. If they’re able to hang on to the two seed, they’ll only have to face two of those teams at most.

Game One: Los Angeles Lakers

In their one meeting this season, the Kyle Lowry-less Raptors picked up a surprising win over the Purple and Gold, limiting LeBron James and Anthony Davis to a combined 15 of 35 from the field. With the Lakers’s guard depth almost completely erased due to the departure of Rajon Rondo and Avery Bradley, expect the Raptors to take advantage of a Lakers team that will have to rebuild its chemistry. Put a victory on the board for Toronto.

Game Two: Miami HEAT

The Raptors have struggled with the HEAT this season, dropping both games to Miami including a bizarre 84-76 loss in which the Raptors were without Pascal Siakam and Marc Gasol. That being said, Miami was able to overpower the Raps at full health earlier in the season. In a shootout, this is anyone’s game, but in a grind-it-out contest, the Raptors don’t have an answer for Bam Adebayo’s combination of strength and quickness and Jimmy Butler’s smash mouth style. Give the nod to the HEAT in this one.

Game Three: Orlando Magic

To find the last time the Magic beat Toronto, you’d have to go back to the first game of last year’s playoffs, where D.J. Augustin hit a game-winning three to pull off the upset. Since then, the Raptors have beaten Orlando seven times in a row. In each of their games against the Magic this season, they’ve held Orlando to less than 100 points, so as long as Toronto gets close to their 113.0 points per game, they should easily handle the Magic and pick up their second win.

Game Four: Boston Celtics

This is the big one. If the Raptors are able to knock off the Celtics here, they’ll gain advantage of the tiebreaker between the two teams and make it nearly impossible for the Celts to move up a seed. The Celtics are one of the few teams that can keep up with Toronto’s depth at the guard and wing positions, and the Raptors have yet to face post all-star Jayson Tatum, who was averaging 29.9 points per game on a ridiculous 46.8% from three. If he continues his hot streak, there’s not much Nick Nurse and co. will be able to do. The Celtics get the win here after some late game heroics from Tatum.

Game Five: Memphis Grizzlies

This is somehow going to be Marc Gasol’s first game against the Memphis Grizzlies despite him playing for Toronto for over a year. This Grizzlies team matches up surprisingly well against the Raptors. The athleticism of Ja Morant will be a handful for Kyle Lowry, and both Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke should defend Pascal Siakam well. However, the ability of the Raptors’ ancillary pieces will eventually overwhelm Memphis, who don’t have the depth to match up with Toronto. They’ll pick up a victory on the back of a scoring exhibition from Norman Powell.

Game Six: Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have had the Raptors’ number this year, beating them twice in two outings. Neither of those games was particularly close, and Toronto has to be particularly pessimistic given that they’ve never led against the Bucks while playing at full strength. Still, there are signs that the Raptors have the best chance to upset Milwaukee. They showed the ability to neutralize Giannis Antentokompo in last year’s playoffs, and given that the Bucks lost Malcolm Brogdon in the offseason, one could make an argument that they’re an easier team to beat this year. With Milwaukee having clinched the number one seed, Toronto wins this one by virtue of the Bucks resting their key players down the stretch.

Game Seven: Philadelphia 76ers

This matchup is perhaps the most difficult to call. The Sixers were a dramatically different team on the road and at home this year, and as you might expect, they lost to Toronto twice in Canada and blew them out in Philadelphia. Now in a neutral location, nobody knows which version of them we’re going to get. To further the confusion, they’ve committed to an all-new look as a team, moving Al Horford to the bench and slotting Shake Milton into the starting lineup. At this point in the schedule, the Sixers have a lot more to play for than the Raptors, who will most likely be locked into their playoff spot. With two games to make up on the Indiana Pacers and HEAT, the Sixers’ extra motivation should lead them to a victory.

Game Eight: Denver Nuggets

Canada’s team matches up with Ontario product Jamal Murray in the last game for each team before the playoffs begin. Denver’s last stretch of pre-pandemic games made no sense whatsoever: they were able to knock off premier teams in the Bucks and yes, the Raptors (albeit without Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka), but dropped games to the abysmal Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers. With a hopefully healthy squad, the Raptors’ two-headed monster at center should be able to slow down Nikola Jokic. Kyle Lowry specializes at locking down smaller, less athletic guards like Jamal Murray, so bank on Toronto’s defense to win out and lead them to a win in their regular season last game.

Prediction: Five wins and three losses, a record that should be enough to secure the second seed in the Eastern Conference. Though oddsmakers have them as the third likeliest team to come out of the East, the Raptors have a clear experience edge on every team in that division. Though they lack big name appeal, their eight man rotation is as skilled as any other team in the league, and makes them a real contender to not only make it to the Finals, but to repeat as NBA Champions.