Take a look at this Houston Astros MLB lineup:
Take yourself back to 2022. How do you think this lineup would perform?
Don’t forget. The pitching was number one in the league at the time.
If I were a betting man, this lineup would result in multiple winning streaks, likely at the top of the division and go deep into the playoffs.
Unfortunately, it’s 2023, and things have certainly changed, for better or worse.
To say the Houston Astros have lost their winning ways is an understatement. They are currently 41-36 and third in their division after 77 games heading towards the midpoint of this oddly strange MLB season. It’s clear that they need a roster shakeup in order to remain relevant for a playoff spot come October.
Main Problems
Many of these losses pertain to blowing leads due to poor pitching down the stretch and the lack of run support from the offense.
In a nutshell, the majority of the lineup is underperforming, but it’s unlikely the entire lineup gets a huge makeover at this point in the season.
Essential players such as Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve, and Jeremy Peña are currently facing challenges, yet there is a strong belief that they can bounce back. We’ve seen a similar situation in the past, and they indeed managed to reverse their fortunes.
Take a look at Player 1’s numbers:
These type of numbers likely indicate an everyday player who is approaching the first quarter of the season. who is gets on base effectively and hits for contact. A frequent table setter, this player often is a contributing factor to put numbers on the win column, 1.6 more than the average player.
Now take a look at Player 2’s numbers:
If the season concluded today, this player would be riding the pine and/or receive multiple stints in and out of the majors. Based on his stats, this player rarely gets on base, his contact is sub-par, and is relatively an easy out against opposing pitchers.
Who Is Player 1?
In reality, Player 1 isn’t getting consistent playtime. Typically, when a player is performing as well as Player 1 with these numbers but has a hard time securing everyday playing time, the best course of action would be for the team to trade them for a player that fills their pressing needs.
This player is Mauricio Dubón. On a cheap $1.4 deal for 1 year, he is having the best season of his MLB career.
Dubón can play multiple positions, a skill that every contending team desperately needs. He played second base beautifully in the absence of the injured Jose Altuve. With Altuve back, there aren’t any available slots Houston can slide him in consistently.
You could place him in the outfield, but those are reserved for mainstay Kyle Tucker and either Chas McCormick, Jake Meyers, or rookie Corey Julks at this moment.
Chas should be an everyday player, but with reports of manager Dusty Baker not having a good relationship with him, it’s tough to get him regular playing time.
But that’s not what we’re addressing here. Let’s talk about Player 2.
Who is Player 2?
If you read the headline, it’s obviously Jose Abreu. It’s no secret the Cuban prospect is having the worst season of his ten year career. It couldn’t have come at a worse time too. Abreu signed a three year, $58 million contract with Houston in the offseason, hailed as one of the many reasons the Astros were expected to continue their dominance in the American League. Unfortunately, it’s been quite the opposite. Given this, he is still in almost every lineup card with 73 out of 77 total MLB games. With his below .600 OPS, it’s often questionable when Dusty often inserts him in the cleanup spot.
Even with this lackluster performance, Abreu is expected to earn $19.5 million each until after 2025. The Astros certainly didn’t expect coughing up most of their cap space to sign an aging All-Star with a negative -1.0 WAR only capable of striking out and grounding into multiple double plays (9, to be exact) along with a strikeout to walk ratio of 0.26.
Given this information. It’s highly unlikely the Astros find success in trading solely Abreu to a team that would want actually want him.
Here’s what I propose: The Houston Astros should package Jose Abreu and Mauricio Dubón with a couple of minor league prospects in a trade for a quality arm.
Before you start shouting “CANCEL JEREMY GRETZER!” at the rooftops, hear me out.
The idea of packaging Jose Abreu and Mauricio Dubón together in a trade could provide a more compelling proposition for other teams and increase the overall trade value.
Mauricio Dubón, as mentioned earlier, is having the best season of his career. He is consistently delivering strong numbers despite limited playtime. He’s an excellent base player and hits for contact regularly, all on an economical $1.4 million one-year deal. His ability to occupy multiple positions on the field makes him an invaluable asset. Not to mention he’s deserving of a regular place in the lineup. Unfortunately, the Astros’ roster seems too crowded to afford him the consistent playing time he needs to thrive.
On the other hand, Jose Abreu is a player with a different narrative. The seasoned player is currently navigating through the roughest season of his ten-year career, which unfortunately coincides with his recent $58 million three-year contract with the Astros. Despite his downturn, Abreu has been placed in the Astros’ lineup in almost all games this season.
Abreu’s current performance doesn’t add significant trade value on its own. However, his career history of consistent high-level play could still hold appeal for teams willing to gamble on his return to form. His considerable experience could also provide value to a younger team in need of a veteran presence, even if his current performance is lacking.
By packaging Dubón and Abreu together along with a couple of top prospects, the Astros could create a more enticing trade proposal. Dubón’s rising star power and current low cost could offset the financial risk associated with Abreu’s hefty contract. Simultaneously, the potential for Abreu to rebound offers an added element of possible upside.
It’s A Win-Win
A team looking for a combination of emerging talent and veteran experience could find this package particularly attractive. In essence, packaging Dubón and Abreu in a trade could help the Astros capitalize on Dubón’s value to offset Abreu’s current shortcomings and provide a beneficial deal for both the Astros and the receiving team.
Trading both could also provide the Astros with a roster refresh, clear up cap space, and offer a chance to answer the pressing issue that has haunted them throughout this season: Pitching.
Don’t get me wrong, There’s definitely a need for an extra bat. Most of the current Astros are underperforming. Slugger Yordan Alvarez has been out with an oblique strain. Before he went down, the Astros were 35-23, coming off their usual slow April start. As soon as Alvarez gets back along with OF and veteran Michael Brantley, That should be more than enough to fill in the offensive holes throughout the current lineup. That will likely spark a strong offensive stretch and possibly wake up the sleeping Astros bats.
Pitching Issues
This is why I stress the need for pitching. Face it, the Astros pitching last year was the main reason why they won a championship. They were the best in ERA, SO, SV, WHIP, and BAA in the American League. In the postseason, they had the best bullpen in major league playoff history. Addressing the loss of Justin Verlander (Who had a 1.75 ERA and won the Cy Young) should have been a sign to grab a quality arm in the offseason.
Houston’s bullpen has also dealt with inconsistency. Namely, blown leads and saves. Right now, they are 0-5 in extra inning games and have blown 9 out of their 26 save opportunities.
While they have the best ERA in the majors this year due to Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier, they’ve been without quality arms in Jose Urquidy (shoulder inflammation) and Luis Garcia (out with Tommy John). Right now, three rookies occupy half of Houston’s starting rotation. It’s very unlikely this rotation survives down the stretch with this format. Trading Abreu and Dubón and draft compensation for a quality arm might be the move that answers the call.
That wasn’t hard was it?
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Jeremy Gretzer is a contributor on Back Sports Page. Along with receiving his MBA in Marketing, He has over a year in sports journalism, and has interviewed various NBA figures such as Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy, along with players such as Jarred Vanderbilt, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. Gretzer has a podcast on YouTube called Cut The Nets which airs every Tuesday night along with his co-host Brian Ramos. For more on Jeremy, his Twitter is @Jr_Gretzer and Instagram (@J.r.gretzer).
For more of Jeremy’s works, click here
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