Can the Yankees Reclaim Second Place?

2020 has been a strange and crazy year for baseball. The World Series-winning Washington Nationals are in last place, Yu Darvish may win the NL Cy Young, and the Toronto Blue Jays are second place in the AL East. The New York Yankees trail their divisional rival thanks to a rocky starting rotation, depleted offense, and passable bullpen. The Yankees currently have the second wild card spot in the American League and are just two games in front of the Baltimore Orioles, so even a playoff spot may not be guaranteed. Although the Yankees have twenty games left this season, the Blue Jays have all the momentum to be ahead in the standings over the Pinstripes. 

Nobody expected the Yankees would be fighting for a playoff spot, nor the Blue Jays having a better record than them. The Blue Jays were a fun dark horse pick to make the playoffs before the season started, but they should be a lock for their first playoff berth since 2016. The Blue Jays completely revamped their team in the 2019-2020 offseason and over the trade deadline (where the Yankees stood pat because they did not want to give up their up-and-coming prospects). The Blue Jays already had an impressive offensive core last season, but they are a more complete team because of a top-heavy rotation and underrated bullpen. 

Over the next twenty games, the Yankees and Blue Jays play all ten season series games against each other. The winner of these matchups may claim second place in the AL East (as the Tampa Bay Rays are running away with the division). To determine which team will come out on top it is imperative to look at each team’s momentum, offense, starting rotation, bullpen, and fielding. Thus, without further ado, here is the breakdown for both teams:

Momentum

The Yankees have been terrible since sweeping the Boston Red Sox on August 17th. They have won just five out of their last eighteen games after they swept Boston. A once relentless offense was reduced to ashes after injuries to D.J. LeMahieu, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela, and Gleyber Torres spent time on the I.L since August 17th. At least some of these injured players have returned to the team. Additionally, most of the Yankees on the I.L. should return this month, which should help them late down the stretch.

Besides playing the Toronto Blue Jays ten times, the New York Yankees face the Boston Red Sox and Miami Marlins three times each and take on the Baltimore Orioles four more times. Considering the Yankees have won all seven games against the Boston Red Sox, have a 3-3 season record against the Baltimore Orioles, and play a Miami Marlins team hovering around .500, it is not hard to imagine that the Yankees could win six games against these three teams.

As for Toronto, they clash against the New York Mets and Baltimore Orioles for three-game matchups, as well as the Philadelphia Phillies for a four-game set. Toronto has won all seven games against the Orioles this season, won both games against the Phillies, and encountered a mediocre Mets team. Therefore, the Blue Jays should be able to win around six games against these three teams.

Verdict: Advantage Blue Jays

Offense

The Yankees offense has not been the same since Judge went on the Injured List. Their main contributors right now are Luke Voit, DJ LeMahieu, and Clint Frazier. While all three players have come up clutch recently, the Yankees need more players to get going. Gleyber Torres returned Saturday, and although he struggled before his injury stint, he is just a year removed from hitting 38 homers. If the Yankees can have one or two more sluggers contribute regularly such as Gary Sánchez, Brett Gardner, Aaron Hicks, and/or Gleyber Torres, then they should be alright until Judge and Stanton return. 

Meanwhile, the Blue Jays’ best slugger is Teoscar Hernández. He currently leads the team in various offensive categories such as batting average (.308), home runs (14), and stolen bases (5). Besides Teoscar Hernández, Randel Grichuk, Lourdes Gurriel Jr., and Craig Biggio all have an OPS north of .800. Not only do the Blue Jays have a lot more consistent contributors than the Yankees, but even with the return of LeMahieu, Torres, and Hicks the offense has still been struggling. At this point, the Yankees still need to get their offense out of a rut.

Verdict: Slight advantage Blue Jays

Starting Pitching

The Yankees rotation could be above average, but they have been mediocre at best this season. After signing Gerrit Cole to a 12-year, $326 million contract, he has a 3.63 ERA in nine starts this season. At least Masahiro Tanaka has been consistent and is the only Yankees starting pitcher to go 5+ innings giving up two earned runs or less in three consecutive starts this season. After Cole and Tanaka, the rotation is messy as both Montgomery and Happ have tossed some impressive outings, but have trouble repeating their excellence. To round out the rotation, Michael King and Jonathan Loaisiga (who is now on the I.L.) have been incredibly underwhelming, so the Yankees are beginning to turn to touted prospects Deivi Garcia and Clarke Schmidt to take the fifth starter job.

Although the Yankees’ rotation has been mediocre, the Blue Jays rotation is looking even better. Hyun-Jin Ryu has quietly been one of the better pitchers in baseball and his 2.51 ERA is the fourth-best in the American League. New starter Taijuan Walker has slotted nicely in the number two role and has given up just two earned runs in his first 11.2 IP as a Blue Jay. After Walker, Ross Stripling has become Toronto’s number three starter after being traded from the Dodgers. Stripling has not gone deep into ballgames, but as of late, he has given his teams at least four strong each time out. Although Tanner Roark has been a terrible fourth starter, he is backed up by Chase Anderson and an occasional start from Julian Merryweather who rounds out the rotation nicely. 

Verdict: Advantage Blue Jays

Bullpen

The Yankees bullpen has been better as of late. Zack Britton returned from the I.L, which should bolster the bullpen, whereas Green and Chapman just seemed to have midseason hiccups against the Mets. Additionally, Adam Ottavino, Luis Cessa, and Jonathan Holder have been reliable out of the ‘pen this year as well. Consequently, the Yankees have not turned the ball over to these dependable relievers all too often. Throughout the season, the Yankees starters did not perform well, and they had to put in their secondary relievers such as Nick Nelson, Albert Abreu, and Ben Heller who have hardly kept the games close. 

Similar to the Yankees, the bullpen is the biggest strength for the Jays. Nevertheless, a lot of credit goes to Anthony Bass, Thomas Hatch, Jordan Romano, Anthony Kay, Ryan Borucki, A.J. Cole, and Rafael Dolis who have all pitched to a sub-three ERA. The Blue Jays bullpen has carried them all season long, so if one or two relievers start to struggle, there are plenty that can pick up the slack. Although the Yankees bullpen seems to be on the right track, they need to be nearly perfect because of the lackluster offense. The Yankees have had one of the best bullpens in the last five years, but the Blue Jays bullpen is more polished in 2020.

Verdict: Advantage Blue Jays

Fielding: 

Without the presence of Judge, Stanton, and now Urshela, the Yankees defense becomes more problematic. The Yankees have their fair share of defensive stalwarts such as Mike Tauchman, Brett Gardner, and DJ LeMahieu. Conversely, they also have players such as Luke Voit, Miguel Andujar, and Gleyber Torres who struggle defensively. Clint Frazier used to be one of the worst defenders in baseball, but both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference rank him as an average to slightly above average defender nowadays. Overall, the Yankees have 2 Rdrs (defensive runs saved above average) as a team.

Despite the Yankees not being the best defensive club, at least they are not as bad as the Blue Jays. In fact, they have -24 Rdrs as a team! Players such as Teoscar Hernández, Randel Grichuk, Vladimir Guerrero Jr, and Danny Jansen have brought down the team defense dramatically. At least they can count on Cavan Biggio and Reese McGuire to help out defensively.

Verdict: Big advantage Yankees 

Currently, the Blue Jays have a huge advantage for taking second place in the AL East, and best the Yankees in nearly every single category. The Yankees have struggled after losing so many players to injury. Even with all the returning players, there is no telling how they will perform after coming back from the I.L. To be consistent with earlier predictions, if the Yankees and Blue Jays both win six games, then the Yankees must win the majority of games against Toronto. Nonetheless, the Bronx Bombers are destined to end up in third place, but if they beat Toronto in head-to-head matchups, the Yankees might end up with a better record than them.

Sources:

https://www.baseball-reference.com

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/teams/TOR/toronto-blue-jays/injuries/

https://www.fangraphs.com

https://www.nj.com/yankees/2020/09/yankees-injury-updates-gleyber-torres-close-giancarlo-stanton-progressing-james-paxton-throws-ahead-of-schedule.html?outputType=amp

https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/TeamPage.aspx?TeamID=TOR