What’s Next: Golden State Warriors

After a catastrophic season, the Golden State Warriors have some soul-searching to do. Gone are the days when the organization could sit back in the offseason and wonder which potential all-star to add to their core. In order to reach the heights of the late 2010’s, the Warriors will have to get more active than ever this offseason, aggressively pursuing free agents and trade deals. Here’s a roadmap of all the major decisions they’ll have to make this offseason.

The first thing the Warriors will have to do isn’t evaluating draft talents, signing free agents, or scouring the trade market. The most important part of this offseason is establishing a vision for their future. With Kevin Durant on the team, the Warriors were unable to plan long-term, as his tendency to only sign one year deals meant that the fate of the franchise could dramatically change from year to year. This offseason will be the first where they have room to breathe, after they had to scramble to replace KD last year. Now that most of the players on the roster have inked multi-year deals, the most important thing for the Warriors to do is to develop a long term plan for their roster. They need to chart a course that balances investing in their future and prioritizing immediate success, and whichever they choose to lean into will inform every next step of the offseason.

Following that, the first major decision the Warriors will have to make regards how they will handle their first round draft pick. Though they will have to wait for the ping pong balls to fall where they may on August 20th, their long-term plan will dictate what they do with the pick. If they want to push for a title next year, trading the pick is a no brainer. There are several potential trade partners who would be willing to pay up to add a final piece to their young core. Think teams like the Atlanta Hawks, who already have solid, but not jaw-dropping young pieces in Trae Young, DeAndre Hunter, and John Collins. 

 If the Dubs want to build another dynasty, they’ll eye talents in the draft with high potential. These are players like Georgia’s Anthony Edwards, a 6’5” shooting guard who could develop into a Bradley Beal-esque scorer, or Lamelo Ball, a 6’6” point guard who could develop into just about the same player scouts expected his brother to be. Unfortunately, both of these guards are going to take time before they reach their ceiling. Though they’ve shown flashes of brilliance, neither of them are excellent defenders or efficient scorers, meaning they’re not exactly the players one would want on a championship contender.

If the Warriors want to plot a middle course, there are options in the lottery that will allow them to do so. Iowa State’s Tyrese Haliburton is a 6’5” point guard with a combination of length, shooting ability, and mature playmaking that should allow him to slot in nicely. If the Warriors are looking to shore up their bigs, Onyeka Okongwu is a good option: the 6’9” center is the most skilled big in this draft, though he could be redundant next to Marquese Chriss. And of course, this draft is packed with intriguing 3-and-D wings such as Devin Vassel, Isaac Okoro, and Saddiq Bey.

After the draft concludes, the Warriors will need to figure out what to do with the 17.3 million dollar trade exception they acquired in the Andre Iguodala trade. This is slightly less time sensitive, but the exception expires on October 25th, so the Warriors will still have to be efficient with their search. Of course, this exception could be off the table after draft night if the Warriors decide to package together those two assets, but if not, the Dubs will need to start dialing up every other front office. The Warriors could look at players like Aaron Gordon and Myles Turner, but don’t be surprised if they end up acquiring a player in a salary dump deal such as Minnesota’s James Johnson.

Next, the Warriors will have to get down to brass tacks and make some decisions about their players on non-guaranteed deals for next year. Ky Bowman, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Mychal Mulder could all be given roster spots or dumped into the free agent market. It looks unlikely that the Warriors keep all three, though all of those players gave the Dubs quality minutes at one point. Look for the Warriors to retain the sharpshooting Mulder, sign Toscano-Anderson to a two-way contract, and let go of the energetic yet unpolished Bowman.

Then the Warriors will hit free agency. With the three rookies they picked up last year all guaranteed money, they won’t have a ton of open roster spots to work with. However, through some sneaky dealings at this year’s trade deadline, the Dubs will look for quality over quantity, being able to spend the full mid-level exception of 9.2 million dollars. The Warriors seem destined to try and swing a big man with it. Over the past few years they’ve spent their MLE on centers such as Demarcus Cousins and Willie Cauley-Stein, and with candidates on the market such Marc Gasol, Derrick Favors, and Paul Milsap, don’t expect a strategy change in this offseason.

The veteran minimum market also poses some interesting possibilities for Golden State. There’s a ton of reunion potential, as the Warriors could stand to benefit from a return of Glenn Robinson III, Marco Belinelli, or Kent Bazemore, all of which have been linked to the Warriors in past offseasons. A Bellinelli signing is probably the least likely outcome, but both Bazemore and Robinson have been outspoken about how much they enjoyed their time in the Bay. If the Warriors are insistent on finding a Shaun Livingston replacement, they could pursue Michael Carter-Williams, a similarly lengthy and similarly poor-shooting guard. If not, look for an offensive-minded rehabilitation project in Brandon Knight or Shabazz Napier.

After the roster is set in stone, the coaching staff will have to grapple with some significant questions of how to optimize it. The most important thing to tease out is how to fill out the spaces in the rotations when the star players are off the court. In the dynasty years the player pairings were fairly concrete: Shaun Livingston and Kevon Looney complemented Klay Thompson and Draymond Green, Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant would play alongside Javale McGee and Patrick McCaw, etc.. After several years of extreme roster turnover, the knowledge of best fits within the Warriors roster has worn off completely. Thus, the front office needs to get to work evaluating which combinations of players will allow the Warriors to succeed when members of the starting five are off the court.

The second debate that the coaching staff will have to figure out is how much the rotation will center around the Dubs’ younger players. The Warriors will almost certainly have five players under the age of 25 on the team next year, and while some such as Marquese Chriss are rotation shoe-ins, giving major minutes to Jordan Poole and their draft pick could cost the Warriors a few precious wins in what will be a tight race for top seeding. However, the Dubs will need to develop their younger talent to establish their future, so the coaching staff will have to figure out how to balance developing their young guns while remaining as competitive as possible.

After that, the Dubs are off to the races in their most important season in recent memory. The season is volatile, fueled by a Western Conference that projects to be extremely competitive. At one end of the spectrum of possibilities is a championship. Though the Dubs will surely experience growing pains, the Warriors aging core means that they will do nothing less than try to make a serious push for the title. However, should the Warriors face a first-round exit or fail to make the playoffs outright, expect major shake ups to the roster, a Draymond Green trade, and possibly a departure of one of the Splash Brothers. Though it’s difficult to tell which one of those outcomes will come to fruition, it’s clear the first full season of the 2020’s will have major ramifications on the Warriors’ trajectory for the remainder of the decade. After an extended absence caused by COVID, Dubs fans should rightfully be itching to see what comes next.