The Indiana Pacers announced on Wednesday that they had fired head coach Nate McMillan. McMillan helmed the coaching staff for four years, though it was clear that an organizational tension was brewing throughout his tenure over his playoff record.
This was no doubt exacerbated after the team was swept by the Miami HEAT. In a statement announcing McMillan’s firing, the team very deliberately pointed to his 3-16 record in the postseason, a not-so-subtle hint that Pacers ownership wouldn’t stand for the lack of playoff results.
However, choosing to jettison McMillan seems to be an odd choice when observed in context. Under McMillan, the Pacers have been consistently underestimated, outperforming their estimated win total each of the previous three years. A large reason for this was McMillan’s ability to maximize his players’ talents. The Pacers were the laughingstock of the NBA when they swapped a sulking Paul George for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis, yet McMillan was able to make all-stars out of both of those supposed busts. He’s also made sure that the Pacers’ young players grow into contributors. Aaron Holiday, Goga Bitadze, and Edmond Sumner have all blossomed into rotation-caliber players during his tenure. When the team lost Jeremy Lamb and Sabonis going into Orlando, McMillan gave TJ Warren a shot in the arm that allowed him to become one of the breakout stories of the bubble. If anything, McMillan has overachieved with this team.
However, McMillan isn’t the first Pacers coach to be fired after seasons of overachieving. In fact, Frank Vogel, their last coach, was booted from the franchise in similar fashion. Vogel had created a culture in Indiana where role players could thrive–it was no coincidence that it was under him that Roy Hibbert and Lance Stephenson put in the best seasons of their career. He took the Pacers to the Eastern Conference Finals twice, and would have pushed for even higher heights if not for some controversial fouls called on George in 2014’s game seven (also against the HEAT). Similarly to the decline of the team under McMillan, the worsening of the Pacers under Vogel cannot be blamed on poor coaching. The Pacers lost David West and Lance Stephenson to free agency, Paul George to a traumatic leg injury, and Roy Hibbert fell to the wayside after being verbally berated by then-President Larry Bird.
The throughline that connects these two firings is that both of them occurred on the heels of a disappointing playoff exit. Both of the team’s decisions seemed to have been impulsive–the Pacers even went so far as to extend McMillan’s contract barely two weeks before his exit. The reality is that this is the second time Pacers ownership has overreacted to a loss in the playoffs, turning a blind eye to the fact that their coaches inherited subpar rosters. Trying to hire a third consecutive overachiever is a gamble that’s unlikely to pay out–good coaches are increasingly difficult to come by and the Pacers already beat the odds once with the hiring of McMillan. A failure in this offseason could be disastrous for Indiana, especially considering Oladipo’s contract–he’ll be a free agent at the end of next season.
The Pacers are rumored to be interested in Mike D’Antoni, who is widely assumed to be leaving the Houston Rockets when his contract expires after the conclusion of the postseason. Though D’Antoni is revered as an offensive mind, one has to wonder why the Pacers have their sights on a coach who’s notorious for not getting it done in the postseason after firing their previous two coaches for poor playoff performances. Nevertheless, Indiana will be fighting an uphill battle to get him on board, as it’s hard to imagine them being a more appealing destination than either the Brooklyn Nets or New Orleans Pelicans, both of which have much more high-profile players to work with.
As for McMillan, don’t expect him to remain on the coaching carousel very long. With an outstanding resume under his wing, he will be a primary target for a couple of small market teams with coaching vacancies. His ability to develop young talent would be alluring for the Sacramento Kings, who need some organizational stability to help develop De’Aaron Fox, Marvin Bagley III, and Harry Giles. If McMillan would prefer to stay in the midwest, he should be a good hire for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who can’t be planning to have J.B. Bickerstaff as their long term head coach. His defensive panache would be a much needed boost for Cleveland’s young backcourt of Darius Garland and Collin Sexton, both of whom are about as interested in defending as they are filing their taxes.
Landing McMillan a job is of paramount importance. 37.5% of NBA coaches who were fired this year were Black, despite Black people only comprising 16.6% of all head coaches. For a league that likes to position itself at the front of social justice causes, those are alarming numbers, especially considering cases such as McMillan where the firings were less than warranted. The NBA has been putting forth failed efforts to increase the amount of Black coaches for years, and making sure a deserving head coach like McMillan lands on his feet next season will be a crucial step in the right direction. Here’s hoping a front office is wise enough to take him on.
