Over the past two years, we saw seismic shifts in the landscape of college sports and conference realignment. The SEC added Texas and Oklahoma from the BIG 12 and the Big Ten added USC and UCLA from the PAC 12. Both conferences will be adding their respective schools officially in 2024.
This has forced the BIG 12 and PAC 12 to act. The BIG 12 schools were united in growing the conference by adding Cincinnati, BYU, Houston, and Central Florida. This has re-stabilized the conference and has them looking for more schools to add. For the Pac 12, it is much more complicated. Different schools have different goals and agendas, as you will see in the content below. Which makes long term stabilization much more difficult.
With that said, let’s explore the various schools in the PAC 12 and see where this leads.
Oregon and Washington
Easily the two schools most connected with joining the Big Ten. However, no invitation has been formally made and now the Big Ten is locked into a Grant of Rights deal with Fox, CBS, and NBC through 2029. Ideally, Oregon and Washington should want a year-to-year Television deal, and/or go independent. They have to be thinking in the short-term until the Big Ten comes calling.
California and Stanford
Outside of Oregon and Washington, Stanford/Cal have the best odds to join the Big Ten. They are more prestigious academically than the remaining six schools, which is a very attractive quality for the Big Ten. On top of that, they reside in one of the biggest metropolitan areas in the country (San Francisco), and near a major college recruiting ground (southern California). Oh, and it doesn’t hurt that both schools (especially Stanford) play Notre Dame on a regular or semi-regular basis.
While they could be waiting longer than Oregon and Washington for a formal invitation, the thought of a long term Grant of Rights TV deal can’t be attractive to them either.
Utah and Colorado
Now we get into some of the schools that face an uphill climb on their future. The Big Ten might be a pipe dream for Utah/Colorado at this stage, but I don’t think they can completely eliminate this possibility. Yes I think they would love to keep the PAC 12 alive, but they need to be conscious of what the other schools are plotting. If schools start to defect, they need a contingency plan.
Arizona and Arizona State
I find it hard to believe either school will be in the Big Ten some day. Arizona State (“ASU”) doesn’t fit at all academically, and are historically very poor in the major sports. The only attractive feature they possess is they are in the Greater Phoenix area. If not for that, they might be (and still might be) on the outside looking in.
Arizona has a strong, national basketball program, which would be appealing to the Big Ten. But football has been weak and Tuscan isn’t a market that conferences are tripping over to get.
With that said, these schools would be looking for stability in their future. Knowing that if the Pac 12 cannot offer that, it has to be tempting to jump ship to the Big 12. If PAC 12 can negotiate a competitive TV deal relative to the Big 12, I could see both schools staying.
Washington State and Oregon State
Of all the schools currently in the Pac 12, these two badly want to keep the PAC 12 alive. If the PAC 12 fails, both schools are more than likely Mountain West bound.
With that said, here are my most likely scenarios for the PAC 12 going forward.
Pac 12 Expands
The most prudent solution is for the Pac 12 to add San Diego State to the conference and do a year-to-year TV deal. Whether or not they add a 12th school would be up for debate. SMU comes up as the most likely addition, bringing the Dallas market and the central time zone to the conference. With that said, SMU is a private school and would be a cultural unicorn compared to the other 11 schools.
Colorado, Utah, Arizona, & Arizona State join the Big 12
Reports are out there that Colorado is nearing a deal to join the BIG 12. Arizona has been heavily rumored to join the BIG 12 as well. If that happens, Utah and Arizona State should join the BIG 12 as well (assuming they have the chance to leave). This would reduce the PAC 12 to 6 schools and would almost certainly signal the end of the conference.
There is a chance of survival if only 1 or 2 schools move. Right now, the rumors are that Colorado and Arizona will jump to the BIG 12. There is a chance the BIG 12 says “no” to Utah and/or ASU. If that’s the case, the PAC 12 may need to ramp up expansion talks with other schools like San Diego State, SMU, Tulane, etc. to survive.
Big Ten Expansion
One idea would be for the Big Ten to work out a separate Grant of Rights deal with another network and/or streaming service to exclusively broadcast their games. ESPN may be a network the Big Ten can work this out with. ESPN currently has the PAC 12 on the late window (10 PM) and risks losing it if the PAC 12 folds. This could be a way for the Big Ten and ESPN to come together on a Grant of Rights deal that they weren’t able to secure last year.
ACC & Pac 12 Alliance
If the PAC 12 cannot work out a new TV deal, another solution is for the ACC to absorb the conference under the existing ESPN/ACC Grant of Rights Agreement.
ACC may have interest in doing this as a preemptive strike against the potential loss of schools in 2036. Right now there are 7 schools in the ACC (dubbed the “Magnificent 7”) exploring their options for getting out of the conference. However, these deals have proven in the past to be ironclad. The right move, to increase their annual revenue, they may need to expand.
ESPN should be interested in this arrangement considering they hold the broadcasting rights to the PAC 12 in their late hour of 10 PM EST. If the PAC 12 dissolves, that 10 PM window may be gone.
Your major schools would take issue with the length the ACC’s Grant of Rights deal. The only way I see this happening is if the PAC 12 is on a short-term contract with the ACC and ESPN. Giving these schools the opportunity to get out earlier if invited to the Big Ten.
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