Seven Takeaways For The Yankees Heading Into The ALDS

The New York Yankees swept the Indians in 12-3 and 10-9 victories this past week to advance to the ALDS (American League Division Series). The AL Triple Crown winner Shane Bieber and Carlos Carrasco the strikeout machine were no match for the Yankees bats. Since the Yankees defeated the Indians, they are scheduled to play the Tampa Bay Rays in a best-of-five series (2-2-1) format at Petco Park in San Diego. 

Unlike previous DS schedules, every team will play in five consecutive days. The Yankees will play Game 1 (8:07 PM EST), Game 2 (8:10 PM EST), and Game 3 (7:10 PM EST) from Oct. 5 – Oct. 7. If necessary, Games 4-5 will also play at 7:10 PM EST on Oct. 8 – Oct. 9. Additionally, each Yankees vs. Rays game can be viewed on TBS. Thus, without further ado, here are the eight biggest takeaways for the Bronx Bombers heading into the ALDS.

1. The offense erupted against dominant pitching.

The Yankees exploded for 22 runs against an Indians team whose pitching had the highest fWAR during the regular season. Shane Bieber, the AL Cy Young award favorite, was shelled for seven earned runs in 4.2 IP. In Game 2, Carrasco exited after 3+ innings because New York loaded the bases against him in the fourth. After Carrasco hit the showers, Gio Urshela greeted reliever James Karinchak with a Grand Slam.

The offensive display against the Indians proved that the Yankees team can hit some of the best pitching in all of baseball. The Yankees will need their big bats against the Tampa Bay Rays who have three starters with ace-like potential in Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, and Charlie Morton. Besides these three starters, the Yankees will have to bypass the lights out Rays’ bullpen led by Nick Anderson (arguably the best reliever in baseball) along with five other relievers with a sub-4.00 regular-season ERA (min. 10.0 IP in relief).

Furthermore, the Yankees’ contribution from a variety of hitters showed that many players can help out offensively throughout the playoffs. Especially towards the end of the regular season, the Yankees “only” could rely on DJ LeMahieu, Luke Voit, Clint Frazier, and Gio Urshela for offense. However, Aaron Judge homered in his first game back, Giancarlo Stanton homered in each ALWCS (American League Wild Card Series) game, Gary Sánchez had a clutch two-run shot in Game 2, whereas Gleyber Torres and Brett Gardner flipped the script in the playoffs after a disappointing 2020 season. The Yankees may not average over 10 runs per game against the Rays, but the effort from 1-9 in the starting lineup could be enough to beat Tampa Bay.

      2.   The Yankees have held their own against the Rays projected starters. 

Although Tampa Bay has a fearsome rotation and arguably the most pitching depth in the AL, the Yankees have been able to handle the Rays’ rotation in the past. The Rays are likely to start Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton, Josh Fleming, and Ryan Yarbrough in that order through Games 1-5. The Yankees have faced each of the Rays’ starters several times except for Josh Fleming, and this is how they fared against them:

Snell: Career: 18 GS, 4-6, 77.1 IP, 4.31 ERA. 2020: 2 GS, 1-0, 8.0 IP, 3.38 ERA.

Glasnow: Career: 5 GS, 1-2, 24.1 IP, 3.70 ERA. 2020: 3 GS, 1-1, 14.1 IP, 3.77 ERA.

Morton: Career: 10 GS, 4-2, 51.2 IP, 3.83 ERA. 2020: 2 GS, 0-0, 8.0 IP, 2.25 ERA. 

Yarbrough : Career: 6 G (0 GS), 3-2, 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA. 2020: 0 G.

The Yankees have not teed off against the Rays projected rotation. Each starter has had a sub-4.50 ERA throughout their career and in 2020 against the Yankees. Yet, here is the catch: the Yankees have knocked out the Rays starters early in the ball game. Besides Morton’s career statistics against the Yankees, throughout the career or 2020 regular season, no Rays’ starter has averaged 5.0+ IP against New York. Therefore, if the Yankees can continue to Rays’ starters early in the game, they could put more pressure on the bullpen, which may be more likely to falter in a best-of-five series.

      3.   The Rays have also held their own against the Yankees’ projected rotation

Overall, the Rays are in a phenomenal position to face the Yankees’ rotation. At some point, whether career-wise or in 2020, the Rays have hammered every starter except for Deivi Garcia (who has not faced Tampa Bay).

Cole: Career: 7 GS, 0-3, 42.0 IP, 4.07 ERA. 2020: 3 GS, 0-1, 16.1 IP, 4.93 ERA.

Tanaka: Career: 21 GS, 11-5, 130.1 IP, 3.31 ERA. 2020: 3 GS, 1-1, 15.0 IP, 4.20 ERA.

Happ: Career: 20 G (18 GS), 5-4, 100.1 IP, 4.04 ERA. 2020: 0 G. 

Montgomery: 6 GS, 1-2, 21.0 IP, 5.14 ERA. 2020: 1 GS, 0-1, 0.2 IP, 54.00 ERA.

The Rays will face a familiar foe in Gerrit Cole tonight, and if their offense can get past him that can set the tone with the series. Meanwhile, Tanaka has dominated the Rays except in 2020. Tanaka is an incredible postseason pitcher but was torn apart by the Indians for six earned runs in his last start. Tanaka and the Yankees are hoping he can regain his playoff persona in Game 2. As for the last two starters, Happ has been pretty average against the Rays, whereas Montgomery has been downright terrible. 

Even though the Rays have hit the Yankees starters, the projected rotation is unlikely to change. The Yankees will likely start Cole, Tanaka, Happ, Garcia, and Cole (again) in that order. Montgomery may start Game 5, but if not he can pitch out in long relief for Happ, Garcia, or Cole the second time around. Also, Cole, Tanaka, and Happ all average over 5.0+ IP, so they can help transition to the bullpen closer to the late innings. The Yankees bullpen is one of the worst they have had in years, so they need all the help they can get from their rotation.

      4.   Boone trusts few relievers out of his bullpen

Many baseball fans when Cubs Manager Joe Maddon in the 2016 World Series used Aroldis Chapman multiple innings at a time because he had little faith in the rest of his bullpen. Aaron Boone might feel the same way about the 2020 Yankees bullpen. Look no further than Game 2 of the ALWCS. Despite the Yankees leading the series 1-0, Game 2 felt like a must-win game for New York. The Yankees were trying to avoid giving Happ or Garcia the ball in an elimination game, and they also coughed up the lead twice. As a result, after four innings from Tanaka, Boone essentially asked for the last fifteen outs from Chad Green, Zack Britton, and Aroldis Chapman (with a little help from Jonathan Loaisiga’s electric arm).

In all likelihood, Boone has three tiers of relievers; tier one consists of Aroldis Chapman, Zack Britton, and Chad Green. Tier two consists of Jonathan Holder, Jonathan Loaisiga, and Adam Ottavino, while Tier-three solely consists of Luis Cessa and Nick Nelson. Boone would like to use his tier one relievers in close games and/or where the Yankees are ahead. His tier two relievers will probably come in to bridge the gap if the starter does not throw a lot of innings (Cessa can be a tier two reliever if needed). Additionally, the tier two relievers would be utilized after any of the tier one relievers threw on back-to-back days because Boone hardly asks his reliever to pitch in three consecutive days. Lastly, Boone would only use Luis Cessa and especially Nick Nelson in a blowout loss or victory.

Boone has probably configured the Yankees bullpen this way to ensure the Yankees have the best possible chance of winning the series. His likely separation of his pitchers into tiers worked against the Indians. The tier one relievers all pitched in Game 2, and Luis Cessa finished Game 1 because of the Yankees blowout 12-3 victory. Thus, there should be little surprise if Boone once again follows a similar strategy in the ALDS.

      5.   Boone has set roles for his lineup

Boone’s changes to the lineup in the ALWCS were very telling how he might utilize players in the ALDS. For starters, Boone turned in nearly identical starting lineups for Games 1 and 2, besides the fact that Kyle Higashioka is paired with Gerrit Cole and Gary Sánchez catches the rest of the Yankees starting pitchers. Sánchez can come in as a pinch-hitter since he is a power bat in the lineup. Mike Ford and Clint Frazier came in as pinch-hitters in Game 2, so they might also be asked to come to the plate in big situations.

Frazier did not end up starting either Game 1 or Game 2. Although Frazier had a breakout season in 2020, Gardner is the longest-tenured Yankee, which was probably a factor Boone considered when penciling in the lineup for Game 1 of the ALWCS. Gardner had a HR and three RBIs in Game 1 and had another three-RBI performance in Game 2. Therefore, Gardner will likely start in the first game of the ALDS.

Consequently, if Gardner struggles, Frazier will receive more playing time and could start some games. Moreover, if Frazier struggles, Mike Tauchman or Giancarlo Stanton could be used in the outfield. Nevertheless, Stanton will likely remain the DH, whereas Tauchman will come into the game as a pinch-runner or defensive replacement (as in Game 2 of the ALWCS). The same can be said of Tyler Wade, who came in as a defensive replacement to shift LeMahieu to first base in Game 1 and entered as a pinch-runner in Game 2.

      6.  Yankees have a clearer path to the World Series if they can eliminate the Rays

Beating the Rays would put the Yankees one round closer to reaching the World Series for the first time since 2009. Going to the World Series will be very difficult as the Rays had an AL-best 40-20 record during the regular season, easily have the best pitching, and pitching depth out of the remaining AL teams. Therefore, if the Yankees can sneak past the Rays, the next team they face should be a piece of cake.

Of course, postseason baseball is a completely different animal than the regular season. Still, if the Yankees advance, they will play the Oakland Athletics or Houston Astros. The A’s have a solid, yet unproven rotation with Jesús Luzardo, Chris Bassitt, and Sean Manaea. They also have an underrated bullpen led by Liam Hendriks, Joakim Soria, Jake Diekman, and Yusmeiro Petit. Yet because of Matt Chapman’s season-ending injury, Matt Olson and Marcus Semien’s poor 2020 seasons, the Yankees have a big advantage offensively. 

As for the Astros, they have struggled offensively all year long, which may or may not be related to the lack of stealing signs. However, their starting rotation is better than advertised with Zack Greinke, Framber Valdez, and Lance McCullers Jr. After these three starters the Astros will be forced to trust Jose Urquidy and Bryan Javier for Games 4 and 5. Nevertheless, after relief ace Ryan Pressly and newcomers Blake Taylor and Enoli Paredes, Houston has a problem with the bullpen. Whatever outcome happens between the Astros and Athletics series, if the Yankees move on in the playoffs, they will become the AL favorite. 

      7.  The Yankees and Rays have bad blood

As mentioned in the Taylor Swift song, the Yankees and Rays have wounds that last, and they last. Literally. The beef between the two division rivals has existed since 2017 when Yankees reliever Tommy Layne threw at Corey Dickerson, and the Rays retaliated. CC Sabathia also is one of the main instigators of the feud, as he made several comments about the Rays including his memorable “That’s for you, [expletive]!” in his final 2018 start.

Then in August 2020, the Yankees thought the Rays were throwing up-and-in on them and shouted at them from the dugout. The following month, Aroldis Chapman threw 101 MPH up-and-in at rookie Mike Brosseau. Brosseau hit a monster homer the following day. Off the field, the two teams are sharing the same hotel in San Diego for the ALDS, which is both hilarious and extremely awkward. The rivals have been professional to one another when encountering one another in the hotel. Nonetheless, Rays outfielder Kevin Kiermaier said it best about how the two teams feel about each other: “We don’t like them, they don’t like us.”

The two teams have also fought for first place in the last two seasons. The Yankees won first place in 2019 by finishing seven games above the Rays. The Rays had the last laugh as they clinched the AL East by seven games over the Yankees and had an 8-2 record in the season series. Above all, the Rays will be a tough team for the Yankees to defeat, but the two juggernauts will likely have an exciting and unforgettable matchup.

Key:

Triple Crown (pitching): The leader in wins, ERA, and strikeouts.

fWAR: Wins Above Replacement for Fangraphs. For example, if a player has a 0.1 fWAR they are worth 0.1 wins more than a replacement-level player (0.0 fWAR). 

GS: Games started

Sources:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/

https://www.fangraphs.com/

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

https://www.mlb.com/yankees/news