Emoni Bates is easily one of the most controversial figures in the 2023 draft. An incredibly hyped prospect that drew LeBron James and Kevin Durant comparisons, he fell hard from grace, ending up playing the majority of his college basketball at MAC’s Eastern Michigan while getting in trouble with the law. He went from first overall pick when he was 15 years old to drafted late in the second round. For more on Bates’ story, BSP’s own Meyer McCaulsky has an excellent timeline of Bates’ tumultuous life.
With the 49th Pick…
Joel Bissell/MLive.com
Many in the Land found this pick a waste. The chance of Bates being a contributor at the NBA level, a guy that didn’t dominate the MAC scoring just 19 points per game on below average efficiency, is not high. He has a poor wingspan and below average raw athleticism, not being particularly fast nor an explosive leaper. So why does this pick make sense for the Cleveland Cavaliers, who selected him 49th overall on draft night? A few reasons actually.
Aim High
First off, while there are a decent amount of great players that have been selected in the second round (Nikola Jokic and Manu Ginóbili come to mind) they are the exceptions that prove the rule. Their stories are so remarkable because the late second round is overwhelmingly filled with players that barely sniff the NBA. A great many of them don’t even make it to the league. They stay overseas or languish in the G-League for years. The Cavaliers’ last three second rounders are Isaiah Mobley (G-League all year and not much hope for more), Khalifa Diop (who was a bench player in Spain averaging 7.7 points per game last year), and Luke Travers (averaged 9.7 points in Australia). None of those guys are remotely close to the NBA yet.
Hit or Miss
The Cavaliers have had second round picks contribute in the NBA, but most of them were early second rounders. Joe Harris in 2014 at pick 33, Allen Crabbe in 2013 at 31, Jae Crowder in 2012 at 34 all had decent or better runs. Notice however, all of those guys were in the early 30s. You’d have to go back to Danny Green in 2009 for the last 40’s or later Cavaliers’ draftee who contributed. The other names in that timeframe? Sir Dominic Pointer and Milan Macvan. Even many of the other early 30’s picks didn’t work out, with names like Carrick Felix, Bernard James and Justin Harper.
In other words the chances of a late 40’s pick panning out is slim to none. So why not go for someone who theoretically (based on his early hype) has a higher ceiling in Bates? If he can fulfill just some of that promise, he can be an NBA player. That’s more than you can say for most late second rounders.
Just What They Needed
Joel Bissell/MLive.com
Importantly, any version of Emoni Bates that is NBA level greatly fills a need for the Cavaliers. Their most pressing need right now is a shooting wing, their secondary need is scoring off the bench. If Bates ends up working in the NBA, he will fill one of those two roles. At best, he can do both well. Bates has great height for a wing at 6’9”. If he can add to his subpar weight, he’ll be the ideal wing size. That clears the Cavalier’s best option at SF right now, the 6’5″ Isaac Okoro.
His best skillset right now is his shooting and shot making. His form is good and he has NBA range. While his overall percentages are weak, much of that can be attributed to his poor shot selection. When isolating down to just catch-and-shoot threes he shot a respectable 39% on them. In the pre-draft combine he was one of the top performers in all shooting categories. If his ego and mentality allow it, Bates as a guy to just stand in the corner and shoot threes at a high clip seems extremely attainable. That’s something the Cavaliers need desperately. Duncan Robinson is an NBA player that contributed on a Finals team and that’s basically his role.
Microwave
At his best though, Bates could be a microwave scorer off the bench. He has no problems shooting over others, and his pull up game is a weapon. He’s always been the focal point of his teams, with opposing teams focusing most of their defensive attention on him, and he still scores despite that. That’s also because defenses know that when the ball touches his hands it’s almost certainly going up, but still. Bates has shown the ability to get his even against solid college competition (30 against Michigan on 63% from the field and 36 against South Carolina on 52%), and he is one of those guys that can get scorching hot, scoring 26 straight against Toledo. The Cavaliers, who ranked 28th in bench scoring, need a guy that can come in and light it up on occasion, similar to Jordan Clarkson or Jordan Poole.
Covering His Weaknesses
Finally, the Cavaliers have one of the better systems to cover some of Bates’ most glaring weaknesses, being his maturity, decision making and defense. J.B. Bickerstaff, for all of his flaws, runs a good locker room and seems well-liked by the players. Lack of belief in him and his system was not the problem for the Cavaliers (even if his system is less than ideal). If there’s a coach and locker room that can absorb someone like Bates, Cleveland is one of the better ones. Secondly, his defensive effort and ability is near rock bottom. The effort part could improve under Bickerstaff along with his maturity. Even if the ability part doesn’t, the Cavaliers with their elite defensive front court of Mobley and Jarrett Allen can absorb that better than anyone.
Finally, in terms of decision-making and shot selection, Bates won’t have much time with the ball in his hands to make those decisions unless he proves something. Darius Garland, Donovan Mitchell, Caris LeVert and Ricky Rubio all have playmaking duties way ahead of Bates. That should neutralize his bad tendencies and have him just shoot what he’s given, a role he could excel at.
Slim
The chances of Bates working out are low of course, but it’s the same for anyone picked this late. At least Bates has a theoretical ceiling that could make him an NBA contributor on a contending team. He’s just 19, and he has shown he can do two of the most valuable things in the NBA and especially for the Cavaliers, which are shoot and score in isolation. He has plenty of flaws that will probably stop him from succeeding, but also enough strengths that seeing him in some sort of role that maximizes those strengths is not unbelievable.
While comparisons are played out come draft time, let me give one more. Isaiah Joe was drafted 49th in 2020. He didn’t do much his first two years, but after moving to OKC, he has become a valuable 40% three-point shooter just catching and shooting. If Bates can just replicate that with a potential for more, it’s a win.
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Patrick Yen is a contributor on Back Sports Page. He has written for NBC, SB Nation and a few more websites in his four-year sports journalism career after graduating from Ohio State University with a B.A. in History. He has been the Back Sports Page beat writer for the Philadelphia 76ers and now the Cleveland Cavaliers. Patrick was born in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania but moved to Columbus, Ohio early in his life and has lived there ever since. You can find more of Patrick on Twitter @pyen117.
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