The Mariners fell just short of a playoff berth in 2023, and the reason might come down to organizational philosophy.
The Seattle Mariners missed out on the postseason in 2023, when they were eliminated on the last weekend of the regular season. They won 88 games, which was a small but meaningful decline from 2022, when they won 90 games and broke their playoff drought.
Fans were naturally upset about being on the outside looking in, but they were much more upset soon after the regular season. During Jerry Dipoto’s end of season press conference, he said the goal was to build the team around winning “54% of the time,” because teams that accomplish that over a decade usually win a World Series in that time frame. He might be right in the long run, but Dipoto must have missed the memo that the Mariners had a .543 winning percentage and missed the playoffs.
Falling short while being budget conscious as always has spurred a flurry of activity, as the M’s have been the busiest team on the trade market. Comparing their roster now to back in November, the Mariners appear to be in a marginally better position. But they are still in a competitive division within a hypercompetitive league. Winning one or two more games will boost their playoff odds, but 90 is no guarantee of a wild card spot, either.
Before projecting the 2024 season, let’s look back at what went right and wrong for the Mariners in 2023.
Mediocre Offense
I am disappointed saying this, but Seattle’s moves from last winter fell flat. I loved their trade acquisitions entering 2023, but neither of their two big ones panned out. 2B Kolten Wong played so badly the Mariners cut him in August, and OF Teoscar Hernandez was just okay. He had been one of the top hitters the previous three years, but T-Mobile Park sapped his power. On the flip side, DH AJ Pollock had blaring warnings signs and then looked washed up.
Despite some obvious flops, the Mariners still had a decent offense. They finished 9th in wRC+ and 16th in wOBA, with the difference coming down to their ballpark. Hernandez wasn’t the only one suffering as the team had a home OPS of .710 and a road OPS of .756. While OF Julio Rodriguez had another awesome season, some of the other sluggers struggled. 1B Ty France and 3B Eugenio Suarez both dropped to average. Meanwhile, SS JP Crawford had a huge breakout but weirdly slumped on defense. C Cal Raleigh is pretty much the only one who played as expected.
The Mariners had the second highest strikeout rate last season, and Dipoto aimed to address that this offseason. He let Hernandez walk, traded away Suarez and OF Jarred Kelenic, and nontendered DH Mike Ford. But then the front office acquired OF Luke Raley, OF Mitch Haniger, and C Mitch Garver, who all have below-average K-rates. Seattle has reshuffled a lot of deck chairs, and overpaying for 2B Jorge Polanco is the only clear upgrade.
Even with all the changes, the Mariners can count on their new-ish core. Crawford hit a career-high 19 home runs when he had not previously reached double digits. Who would have thought that better pitch selection leads to better results? Raleigh has firmly established himself as one of the best catchers of the game since he can hit and field. J-Rod, of course, is one of the biggest stars of the game and will play in the Pacific Northwest for years to come.
Sparkling Rotation
While the offense was inconsistent, the Mariners boasted one of the best pitching staffs in baseball. Seattle’s top three can go toe-to-toe with anyone in a postseason series. SP Luis Castillo has been an ace for years, but he has two younger pitchers right beside him. SPs Logan Gilbert and George Kirby are both full-time starters with plenty of team-control years left. The control wizards aren’t going anywhere. The M’s also featured two interested rookies in SPs Bryan Woo and Bryce Miller who hope to take on larger roles this year.
As evidenced by four homegrown starters, the Mariners excel at pitching development. That extends to the bullpen, as well, where they routinely churn out quality relievers. Their bullpen is so good they traded CP Paul Sewald at the deadline and managed just fine without him. The late-inning guys are flamethrowers CP Andres Muñoz and RP Matt Brash. Both of them came over in lopsided trades with the San Diego Padres. Seattle targets players with excellent sliders and makes them even better, which is why they recently traded for RP Gregory Santos.
The Mariners as a whole had the third best ERA, second best FIP, and fourth best xFIP. They were also third in K-BB%. Regardless of what metric you use to evaluate pitching, Seattle kept runs off the board. The Mariners will aim to do the same thing again in 2024. Don’t be surprised if an obscure reliever or two features prominently in the mix.
Jerry Dipoto has built a sustainably competitive team but not a sustainable winner. His front office might need to find a new way to cross the 90-win threshold.
