After a disappointing 2022 campaign, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will try to get back to their winning ways. However, that will prove to be very difficult this offseason. Tom Brady retired and the team is $57M over the cap for 2023. While the team will stop short of calling this offseason a rebuild, the Buccaneers will look a lot different next season.
Before Tampa can move forward, they need to get under the cap. That is going to require some adjustments to their existing roster. Two ways they can accomplish this: (1) restructures; and (2) cuts (cap casualties).
Let’s take a look at some possible players who may be on the bubble:
Leonard Fournette: reports are that Tampa Bay will be releasing him. The Bucs will save roughly $3.5M in salary cap space by cutting him now.
Cameron Brate: another player reported to have been released. He was lost in the rotation last offseason, so the writing has been on the wall for a while. This results in a savings of roughly $2.0M.
Donovan Smith: this might surprise some people, but Smith really regressed last season. His penalties and sacks allowed were up from last year. The Monday Night game vs the Saints last season is a great example of how poorly he played. Smith is a $17.9M cap hit in 2023 but the team would save nearly $10M by releasing him.
Ryan Succop: a $4.5M cap hit in 2023, Succop becomes a cap casualty. The Bucs would save roughly $3.8M and should look to more cost effective solutions at the position.
Shaq Mason: last but not least, Mason is at risk of losing a roster spot. A $9.5M cap hit, the Bucs can save $5.2M by releasing him. While Mason would likely start next season, the Bucs may value the $5.2M in savings over production.
Overall, if all of these players are released, the Bucs would save roughly $24.5M in cap space from 5 players. Knowing that the Bucs are $57M over the cap, there would still be work left to be done.
Potential Restructures:
According to Spotrac.com, here are the potential restructures for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and savings they would incur:
Chris Godwin: $9.5M
Vita Vea: $8.6M
Shaq Barrett: $6.5M
Carlton Davis: $6.7M
Ryan Jensen: $5.7M
Russell Gage: $4.5M
Overall: $41.5M
This would be enough to give Tampa Bay some cap relief but still keep them limited in Free Agency. They could look to offer extensions to certain players to lower the 2023 cap number. Mike Evans is the most likely candidate. Signing him to an extension will help convert some of his cap ($23.7M) into a signing bonus and reduce the 2023 cap charge.
Notable Pending Free Agents:
Tampa has a lot of free agents that will be tough to get back. My first thought is that the quality veterans will be gone. Many of these players have fewer years left in the league and will want to chase a championship. Not to say that Tampa is tanking, but perception is reality and the fact is the Buccaneers will lose a lot of talent this offseason.
The Buccaneers are not expected to retain much of their free agent class. I expect the veterans (David, Hicks, Jones, etc.) to be on other teams next year.
With that said, below are some of the pending free agents for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers:
Lavonte David: a Buccaneer his whole career, the time may be now for a fresh start. Much like Bobby Wagner last year, David will want another shot at a championship. Even though he is 33, he is still very productive. He’ll command around $10M/year, which is very steep for Tampa this offseason. My expectation is for him to move on to a new team.
Jamel Dean: one of the best cornerbacks in the league. Tampa Bay would love to have him back, but his market will be $15-20M/year. I find it hard to imagine the Buccaneers will be able to prioritize him, especially when paying Carlton Davis last offseason.
Akiem Hicks: a free agent pick up late last season, Hicks provided a run stuffing presence along the defensive front. However, with his age of 33, I expect him to test free agency.
Julio Jones: a luxury player at this point, I don’t expect Jones to be back with the Buccaneers. He came on board largely for Tom Brady. However, the WR position is pretty deep as it is, so the expectation is that Tampa will move on from him.
Sean Murphy-Bunting: a solid corner in a deep group. However, retaining Murphy-Bunting will largely rely on what they do with Dean. Even if this is a rebuild, the Bucs need to retain at least one of these guys. Dean is the better of the two, but will come at a steeper price tag ($15-20M/year). Can Murphy-Bunting be a CB2 behind Carlton Davis?
Blaine Gabbert: the back up in Tampa for the past 4 seasons, Gabbert faces an uncertain future. If the Bucs are serious about giving Kyle Trask an opportunity to compete for the starting position. Gabbert would be a formidable opponent for him.
Carl Nassib: the Bucs need affordable impact players on the team. Nassib was the best pass rusher after Shaq Barrett was lost for the season. He will also provide competition with Joe Tryon. The Buccaneers would love for Tryon to start opposite Barrett. But if he’s not ready, it’s good to have a solid veteran like Nassib there.
Other Notable Free Agents: Rakeem Nunez-Roches, William Gholston, Mike Edwards, Keanu Neal, Logan Ryan, Josh Wells, Aaron Stinnie.
Free Agent Options:
In order to pick up free agents, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will need to find bargain values. A large portion of the additions this offseason will come from the draft. With that said, here are a few targets to consider:
Drew Lock: a low cost QB option to compete with Kyle Trask. Lock was the backup quarterback in Seattle last year, where Ryan Canales was the QB coach. Canales, now the Buccaneers offensive coordinator, has some familiarity with Lock.
Anthony Walker/Drue Tranquil: either player would be a solid replacement for Lavonte David at a far lower rate ($3-4M/year). Both would complement Devin White as the coverage linebacker, allowing White to play more along the line of scrimmage.
The Bucs aren’t going to sign many Free Agents. Instead, they will be relying on the draft to fill much of the holes with this team. They have 9 draft picks (6 in rounds 5-7), so they could look to move back and accumulate more picks. Needless to say, it’ll be a challenging offseason for the Buccaneers. But there are pieces still in place on this team to surprise some people in 2023.
Check out these other articles on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers!
Offseason QB Options
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Offensive Report Card
