Houston Astros Mid-Season Report

Well, this wasn’t what I had expected.

The Houston Astros–I’m sorry–the Defending World Series Champion Houston Astros, haven’t been the team Astros fans know and love in this year’s MLB season. After losing the final series before the All-Star break to the Seattle Mariners three to one, Houston is 50-41, and are just two games behind the first place Texas Rangers in the AL West.

They also hold the second wild card spot behind the young up and coming Baltimore Orioles. Is this 2015-2016 all over again? Once a fever dream from the past, the Astros are now receiving the biggest challenge of their franchise history since the dynasty started seven years ago.

What was once a powerhouse team destined to be first place in their division for years to come, the 2023 MLB season has hit the Houston Astros like a freight train. Let’s talk about it.

Preliminary Issues

Astros fans knew something was fishy coming into this season. It started with Astros owner Jim Crane firing General Manager James Click. Although it’s never a good sign to fire your own GM fresh off a World Series ring, Crane and Click never saw eye to eye throughout Click’s tenure in Houston. After Click decided to keep SP Jose Urquidy instead of trading for Chicago Cubs catcher Wilson Contreras at the trade deadline, it was only a matter of time where Click’s departure reared its ugly head.

Soon after this, Crane started making GM decisions. With the help of fan-favorite (who was only good during his MLB playing career), Jeff Bagwell, the Astros got to “work.” And work they did, re-signing Rafael Montero to a three year deal worth $34.5 million. After one good season, Montero quickly became among the highest paid relievers in the majors.

This expensive contract hasn’t lived up to expectations. After 37 games, Montero has the highest ERA (6.57) among high leverage relievers. It’s unlikely Houston will be able to savor themselves from this debacle of a signing. They will either need to keep him on the team, or designate him for assignment, thus eating up the contract.

I’m sure Astros fans are aware the offseason decisions didn’t end here. With Bagwell’s insight, Crane made another decision without a GM. The Houston Astros signed aging star Jose Abreu for three years, totaling $58 million. On the outside looking in, how could this have gone wrong? Coming into this season, Jose Abreu was a top 15 player in the MLB. He hits for power, has great durability on the field, and is an above average fielder at first base. Plus, Yuli Gurriel was regressing at age 39, what could have been a better option?

This description would have been credible in 2021, as Abreu has significantly regressed over the last couple of seasons. First, it was his power, as his launch angle to get it out of the ballpark appeared harder to achieve, hitting only 15 bombs in 2022. His average at .304 was solid, but his SLG took a significant dip in performance. Abreu had 268 total bases in 2022, four less than 272 in 2021, yet he hit half his home runs out of the yard.

In 2023, it’s gotten worse. After 91 games, Abreu has only hit seven home runs, with his first homer occurring over a month into the season. Not only has his power continued to worsen in 2023, his exit velocity (89.5) and hard hit percentage (42%), both career lows, have followed suit. Abreu is hitting only .237 this year in his first season with Houston and was signed initially to be a power threat alongside sluggers Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez. So far, this hasn’t been the case.

Although his performance in June has improved (.292 AVG, .311 OBP, .510 SLG) It’s already been the midpoint of the MLB season. Abreu will need to step up his production consistently to make his contract appear worthwhile.

Injuries

In addition to the offseason signings that have backfired, injuries have taken a huge toll on the Astros overall production. Before Spring Training started, former 2017 MVP Jose Altuve suffered a thumb fracture in the World Baseball Classic. Fan favorite Lance McCullers injured his forearm right before Spring Training started and is out for the season, and All-Star Michael Brantley is still recovering from shoulder surgery and has yet to make a rehab stint.

To say that the Astros started on the wrong foot is an understatement. The injury bug didn’t stop there. Injuries to two of their key starting pitchers in Luis Garcia and Jose Urquidy left the Astros to dig up multiple prospects from the minors to replace them. For Garcia, he won’t be back until next season due to Tommy John Surgery. Urquidy is currently throwing off the mound and is slated to make a rehab assignment in the near future.

Pitching

Even with their depleted rotation, Houston has managed to lead the American league in team ERA and are tied for 7th in WHIP. Given the fact that three rookies are currently in the rotation, this is not likely to continue trending in a positive direction.

Although Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier have performed well so far this season, there’s been recent issues of early depletion with the Astros 1-2 punch. Namely Javier, who hasn’t been himself lately. Javier’s 2.79 ERA in May climbed drastically to a 5.79 ERA in June. His last appearance was the worst of his career, giving up eight earned runs in 4.1 innings against the Texas Rangers, eventually giving up a 10-2 lead. In his last three starts, Javier’s given up a total of 18 earned runs in 10.2 innings.

Just before Houston wrapped the All-Star break, Javier’s expected start against the Mariners was replaced by Ronel Blanco. This move was likely made to give Javier some much needed rest. It’s his first year where he has been a full-time starter, compared to previous seasons where he was both a long reliever and a backup starter. His usage down the stretch into the playoffs along with participation in the World Baseball Classic likely gave him some fatigue to close out the first half of the season.

For the case of the “Framchise,” the 29-year old All-Star is leading the league in ERA (2.51), yet his win-loss record is 7-6. Although he was scratched in his second to last start of the first half due to a sprained ankle, Valdez bounced back, delivering a quality start against the Seattle Mariners, culminating another All-Star caliber first half to the season.

Although he is being considered to start the 2023 MLB All-Star game on Tuesday, manager Dusty Baker, who is managing this year’s American League, has reservations. Baker is reluctant to have him pitch on just three days rest, aiming to prevent any further fatigue to his Astros pitching staff.

Rookie Arms Stepping Up

J.P. France has been more than enough in his rookie season following the injuries dealt to the back end of the rotation. In 11 starts, France has a 4-3 record with a sub three and a half ERA in 66.1 innings pitched. Although his record may not raise eyebrows, France has been a key arm that the Houston Astros desperately needed in order to stay competitive in the AL West.

Rookie Hunter Brown had a strong April-June run, but got roughed up to close out his last start to the first half. This is likely another case of fatigue, as Brown has barely a year of the big leagues under him. The final slot in the rotation has been an issue. Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak have struggled to adequately fill in that spot, as they have both been sent to the minors and called up multiple times this year.

It’s clear that veteran starting pitching is sorely needed in the trade deadline.

The Houston Astros bullpen has been solid, but it’s not as elite as 2022. If the starters left the mound with the lead last season, holding that lead was pretty much automatic with Houston’s relievers. This year, it’s been shaky at times. It’s not just Montero. Key pitchers from 2022 such as Bryan Abreu, Phil Maton, and Seth Martinez have scuffled at times throughout this season.

Offensive Inconsistency

Houston’s main issue is their offense. The Astros offense ranks near the high teens to mid 20s in all respective categories (AVG, SO, Hits, OBP, OPS, BB). While it’s not necessarily bad, ensuring wins has been rather bipolar. Winning games for Houston has been inconsistent. Players like Abreu, Alex Bregman, and Jeremy Peña are underperforming. Yordan Alvarez, the best hitter in the lineup, has been out for a month with an oblique strain, causing a huge hole in the offensive game.

The other issue with the offense is the inconsistency with the lineup. Manager Dusty Baker‘s lineup card is hardly ever the same game by game. Even when a player who’s had a great stretch of games, Baker rests that player in the next game. An example is OF Chas McCormick. A reliable player at the dish and arguably Houston’s best outfielder, McCormick has hardly been able to receive consistent playing time. Even when Chas has a big game, Baker takes him out of the lineup the following day. Astros contributor Chandler Rome discusses this more in depth, citing a possible feud between Baker and McCormick behind the scenes.

Among the takeaways from the Astros' series win against the Mets: what playing Mauricio Dubón at first base really signifies, Chas McCormick's June resurgence, what to do with Rafael Montero and Ryan Pressly's rebound – https://t.co/XsNCZ7V6sD

— Chandler Rome (@Chandler_Rome) June 22, 2023

In the Astros’ lineup, the standout is Mauricio Dubón. The 29-year-old utility player from Honduras is enjoying a breakout year, hitting .279 with a 2.0 BWAR and a .701 OPS, over 100 points higher than the previous year. Initially a replacement for an injured Altuve, Dubón has surpassed expectations, securing more consistent starts in the Astros’ fluctuating lineup.

Another standout is Corey Julks. The rookie from Friendswood, TX is thriving during his first year in the bigs, hitting .282 with a .733 OPS and a 103 OPS+ in 69 games. Julks’ .355 BABIP has been an important table-setter in the lineup and occasionally hits for power, with six homers and twelve doubles.

Trade Deadline

Houston’s mediocre start to the first half compared to their usual standards calls for some extra support to both pitching and batting. Given that three of their key pitchers are out and their high leverage pitcher in Rafael Montero is having an nightmarish season, pitching needs to be prioritized at the trade deadline. Notable names to acquire is Cleveland Guardians ace Shane Bieber.

Probable Pitching Trades

Bieber has been Cleveland’s ace over the last five seasons. Currently sporting a 5-6 record with a 3.77 ERA in 19 starts, Bieber is tied for 2nd in the American League in innings pitched (117.0). A workhorse like Framber, Bieber would be a solid addition to a rotation that’s currently on life support.

The Guardians right now have a 45-45 record, but are ironically in 1st place, ahead half a game of the Minnesota Twins in arguably the weakest division of the major leagues. Given their record, it’s fifty-fifty as to whether or not they’ll be sellers at the trade deadline. Should they continue to regress, Bieber might be on the trading block.

More likely additions would be from the Chicago White Sox or St. Louis Cardinals. Initially supposed to be competing for a playoff spot, the White Sox have completely crumbled, with a 36-49 record and 4th in the AL Central, two years removed from their strong 2021 campaign. Pitchers Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito, who are both having respectable seasons, are likely to be trade assets as Chicago is expected to be sellers at the deadline. Either Cease or Giolito would be invaluable to the Astros’ pitching rotation.

A usual competitor in the NL Central, the Cardinals don’t seem to have it this year. Despite a solid offense, the pitching has been far from stellar. This contrast may play to Houston’s advantage, having already faced the Cards this week. In their matchup against Jordan Montgomery, currently enjoying a standout season, the Astros’ bats were effectively muted. The next two games, Houston exploded with a total of 24 runs, winning the three-game set in St. Louis.

Montgomery’s pitching prowess led the Cardinals to secure the lone victory in the three-game series. If the Cardinals opt to include Montgomery in a trade, he may find himself in the race for a playoff spot – a scenario that adds an intriguing dynamic to the season.

Lastly is New York Mets’ pitcher Max Scherzer. Despite having the third-largest payroll in the league, the Mets are underperforming and stand fourth in the NL East. Rumors suggest the Houston Astros are considering reacquiring Justin Verlander. However, the enormity of his contract as well as his age could make this decision ill-advised. Scherzer’s contract, while costly, is significantly less than Verlander’s. It’s a commitment the Astros could feasibly handle. Scherzer is also slightly younger than JV, which could also offer Houston an edge in career longevity.

Possible Bat Acquisitions

Along with acquiring an arm, a bat or two may be needed to help an inconsistent offense. Right now, GM Dana Brown is prioritizing offense over pitching.

At the start of the season, Shohei Ohtani was briefly regarded as a trade asset. Those rumors have been put to bed, as the Los Angeles Angels are actually competing for a playoff spot. They are over .500 and are 2.5 games back from the third Wild Card spot. This is the best spot Los Angeles has been in several seasons. It’s highly unlikely they are sellers at the trade deadline.

Another player to look into is Boston Red Sox OF Alex Verdugo. Shrouded by a mediocre year across the roster, Verdugo is having a great individual season, batting .290 with an .817 OPS in 328 at-bats. Reminiscent of the late 2010s roster, Verdugo doesn’t strike out very much. His 3.1 WAR ranks among the highest on the roster.

The problem with Verdugo is his contract. He is set to become a free agent next season. Trading valuable prospects and/or key assets for what looks to be a rental may not help in the long run. It’s happened before however. The acquisition of catcher Christian Vazquez at the deadline last season was a big help to Houston down the stretch and throughout the postseason.

Inconsistency and Injuries

The two terms above are what effectively sums up the first half of the Astros season. However, it’s looking a bit better in recent weeks. Their instate rival, the Texas Rangers, are regressing from their blistering 40-20 start. The Rangers have gone 12-19 in their last 31 games falling to just two games ahead of Houston. If you are the Astros, there isn’t a better time than the present to regain that division that’s rightfully yours. Along with some key trades, it’s going to take more offensive consistency and a departure of the injury bug to make this vision a reality.

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Jeremy Gretzer is the Social Media Director and Editor for Back Sports Page. Along with receiving his MBA in Marketing, He has over a year in sports journalism, and has interviewed various NBA figures such as Mark Jackson and Jeff Van Gundy, along with players such as Jarred Vanderbilt, Jabari Smith Jr. and Alperen Sengun. Gretzer has a podcast on YouTube called Cut The Nets which airs every Tuesday night along with his co-host Brian Ramos. For more on Jeremy, his Twitter is @Jr_Gretzer and Instagram (@J.r.gretzer).

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